Childbearing preferences and family issues in Europe: evidence from the Eurobarometer 2006 survey

This article provides an overview of major findings described in the report on 'Childbearing Preferences and Family Issues in Europe' written at the request of the European Commission, Directorate-General Communication, Opinion Polls (Testa 2006). The report confirms the emergence of below-replacement family size ideals in Europe: Austrian women aged 25-39 show indeed a mean value of 1.7 children. As expected, ideals are higher than actual or intended fertility, and when we add up the number of children already born with those people still intend to have in the future, several other countries show an average ultimately intended family size of less than two children. The presence of a supportive partner is the most important circumstance in childbearing decisions, and consistently, the lack of the right partner for raising children is the most frequent reason given for not meeting the fertility desires formulated at the beginning of the reproductive career. The contribution of both partners is considered necessary for a good family life, but the role of mothers is judged to be the more crucial one. Countries more liberal in terms of gender roles in family life also show preferences for larger families.

Family Formation in France: Individual Preferences and Subsequent Outcomes

In France, as in all European countries, the birth of a first child has been increasingly delayed over time, but the reasons why individuals decide to postpone the time to become a parent still remain to be deeply investigated at the micro level. In this prospective study we analyse fertility preferences and subsequent reproductive behaviour of childless people, and implement a model that uses desires, or intentions, with their related timing, as key covariates. Results show that desired and intended fertility are a strong predictor of subsequent family formation, even after controlling for the effects of other relevant variables, and people become more realistic about their short-term childbearing plans when asked to assess their personal chance to have a future birth. Moreover, highly educated people anticipate their own transition to parenthood more precisely, as compared to low educated people. Age is the most crucial factor determining the probability to remain involuntarily childless in the interval between the surveys, while persistent childlessness is mostly associated with the lack of a partner if it is a consequence of a deliberate choice to postpone childbearing.

On the positive correlation between education and fertility intentions in Europe: Individual- and country-level evidence

Increasing shares of European women are making large investments in their human capital. Whether and to what extent these investments are in conflict with reproductive behaviour are issues that have repercussions for fertility levels. Using two Eurobarometer survey data (2006 and 2011) on individuals clustered in the 27 EU countries, I investigate the relationship between women's education and lifetime fertility intentions. Results suggest that a positive association between women's level of education and lifetime fertility intentions exists at both the individual and country levels, as well as in a micro-macro integrated framework. The main explanation for these findings - which remains to be proven by future research - is that, in institutional contexts allowing highly educated women to have large families, women of reproductive ages are more prone to make investments in both human capital and family size, because these choices are not seen as incompatible alternatives. (author's abstract

Will highly educated women have more children in the future?

"Will highly educated women have more children in the future?" In this contribution, I address this question by looking at both fertility and fertility intentions; i.e., the number of children people plan to have over their reproductive lives. Intended births are highly correlated with actual births, and in low-fertility settings, childbearing has become associated with the couple's agency. On the other hand, education, which is a marker of income and social status, has remained an important driver of fertility choices. Hence, understanding the reproductive decision-making of women and men with low, medium, and high levels of education is crucial when seeking to determine whether - and if so, to what extent - there is scope for additional policy interventions aimed at raising fertility levels

Childless future? An insight from the analysis of childbearing preferences in Europe

'The relatively low levels of ideal and ultimately intended family size manifested in some European countries (Goldstein et al. 2003; Testa, 2006) inspired a careful analysis of the childless preference in Europe based on the Eurobarometer surveys in 2001 and 2006. The aim of the current paper is to investigate the childlessness ideal, or the intention to stay without children, and their contribution to the current levels of ideal and intended fertility in Europe. The analysis is complemented by a comparison between childless women and women with children in respect to two relevant aspects related to childbearing and childrearing: the circumstances perceived as most important in the fertility decisions and the opinion on gender roles in family life. Findings show that young Austrian women hold the record for the lowest fertility ideals and intentions, which are on average definitely below replacement levels. Austria is also the country with the largest diffusion of the childless preference. However, the childless option only plays a secondary role in explaining the cross-national differences and childlessness - although quite high in some countries - is still very rare as an enduring or a lifetime choice. Interestingly, childless women are not significantly different from women with children in their opinion on the relevant childbearing decision- making factors and do not show different views on issues related to gender roles in family life.' (author's abstract)

Fertility desires, intentions and behaviour: a comparative analysis of their consistency

Realisation of childbearing intentions implies couple\u2019s dyadic interaction and proceptive behaviour. Studies on childbearing intentions and outcomes have rarely considered nonuse of contraception or \u2018proceptive behaviour\u2019 in general as an important mediator of fertility outcomes. The traits-desires-intentions-behaviour theory (Miller and Pasta, 1996; Miller et al., 2004; Miller, 2010) expects proceptive behaviour to be the most accurate predictor of a birth and intentions to be more predictive than desires. We test this theory using longitudinal data from the Generations and Gender Surveys from Austria, France and Bulgaria (2004\u20132013) and performing logistic regression models on birth outcomes which includes as key explanatory variables different pairwise combinations of desires, intentions and contraceptive (or proceptive) behaviour. The findings show that an individual\u2019s intention to have a child predicts the birth of a child better than non-use of contraception, or proceptive behaviour; however, proceptive behaviour is a better predictor of a birth than non-use of contraception. Finally, perception of the partner\u2019s agreement on having a child now is less predictive than an individual\u2019s intention to have a child within three years. This paper calls for the collection of genuine couple-level data on fertility intentions and behaviour and more refined measures on both contraceptive and proceptive behaviour

The educational gradient of fertility intentions: a meta-analysis of European studies.

Unlike achieved fertility, fertility intentions are often positively correlated with education. However, the conditions under which such a positive relationship exists are not yet well known. Using 86 pieces of research covering 13 European countries that were published between 1990 and 2011, we assess in a quantitative manner the temporal and cross-country variation in the relationship between educational attainment and reproductive intentions. Because of the sequential nature of reproductive decisions and the gendered nature of each individual's life course, we look separately at childless women and women with one child, and compare women with men. Our findings show that both first and second birth intentions and educational attainment are positively correlated, but that this relationship - which is stronger for men than for women - tends to disappear when the normative value of a two-child family is reached. Structural labour market characteristics explain a good portion of the cross-country variance: the educational slope of first and second birth intentions is steeper in countries with large shares of women in vulnerable employment situations or in part-time employment, and is flatter in countries with gender-equal labour force participation and large shares of women in highly qualified employment

Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the 'Great Recession'

Relatively little research has been conducted on how economic recessions impact fertility intentions. In particular, uncertainty in reproductive intentions has not been examined in relation to economic shocks. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of individuals' perception of negative changes in both their own and their country's economic performance on reproductive intentions in Europe during the time of the 'Great Recession' (2006-2011). Crucially, we examine both intentions and stated certainty of meeting these intentions. Using the 2011 Eurobarometer survey for 27 European countries, fertility intentions and reproductive uncertainty are regressed on individuals' perceptions of past trends in country's economic situation, household's financial situation, and personal job situation. Multilevel ordinal regressions models are run separately for people at parities zero and one as well as controlling for a set of socio-demographic variables. A worsening in the households' financial situation, as perceived in the years of the economic crisis, does not affect people's fertility intentions but rather the certainty of meeting these intentions. This relationship holds true at the individual-level for childless people. The more negative the individual's assessment of the household's financial situation, the higher the reproductive uncertainty. While this works exclusively at the country-level for people at parity one, the higher the share of people's pessimism on households' financial situation in the country the more insecure individuals of such a country are about having additional children. The empirical evidence suggests that individuals' uncertainty about realising their fertility intentions has risen in Europe and is positively linked to people's perceived household financial difficulties. If European economies continue to fare poorly, fertility intentions could eventually start to decline in response to such difficulties. (authors' abstract

From intentions to births: paths of realisation in a multi-dimensional life course

The adult lives of women and men are shaped by a wide range of choices and events pertaining to different life domains. In the literature, however, pregnancy intentions are typically studied in isolation from other life course intentions. We investigate the correspondence of birth intentions and outcomes in a life course cross-domain perspective that includes partnership, education, work, and housing. Using longitudinal data from the Generations and Gender Surveys, we examine the matching processes of individuals' birth intentions with subsequent outcomes in Austria, Bulgaria, France, Hungary, and Lithuania. The results show that the intention to change residence is directly correlated with having a child among men and women living in a union, and that the intention to enter a partnership is correlated with childbearing among single men, but not among single women. Furthermore, we find that the intention to change jobs is inversely correlated with an intended childbirth, while it is directly correlated with an unintended childbirth. These findings suggest that the transition paths from birth intentions to birth outcomes should encompass a multi-dimensional life course perspective

The educational gradient of fertility intentions: a meta-analysis of European studies

Unlike achieved fertility, fertility intentions are often positively correlated with education. However, the conditions under which such a positive relationship exists are not yet well known. Using 86 pieces of research covering 13 European countries that were published between 1990 and 2011, we assess in a quantitative manner the temporal and cross-country variation in the relationship between educational attainment and reproductive intentions. Because of the sequential nature of reproductive decisions and the gendered nature of each individual\u2019s life course, we look separately at childless women and women with one child, and compare women with men. Our findings show that both first and second birth intentions and educational attainment are positively correlated, but that this relationship \u2013 which is stronger for men than for women \u2013 tends to disappear when the normative value of a two-child family is reached. Structural labour market characteristics explain a good portion of the cross-country variance: the educational slope of first and second birth intentions is steeper in countries with large shares of women in vulnerable employment situations or in part-time employment, and is flatter in countries with gender-equal labour force participation and large shares of women in highly qualified employment