Auctioning the NFL overtime possession

In an National Football League overtime, a coin is tossed to determine which team will receive the kick off. In the sudden death format starting on offense has a significantly higher chance of winning. This makes coin tossing one of the most climatic moments and immediately confers an advantage to one team. Proposals to improve the ex post fairness by guaranteeing each team one possession reduce the efficiency and excitement of the sudden-death format. We propose a simple approach motivated by economics: the coaches of opposing teams bid on the yardage from its end zone at which his team would begin offense, with the low bidder winning the offense right. For instance, if coaches of teams A and B bid 18 and 21 yards, respectively, team A would win and begin its offense at 18 from its end zone. This note analyzes the equilibrium outcome of such an auction and discusses its properties

Shorting at Close Range: A Tale of Two Types

Abstract We examine stock returns, order flow, and market conditions in the minutes before, during, and after recent short sales on the NYSE and Nasdaq. We find two very distinct types of short sales: those that provide liquidity, and those that demand it. Shorts that supply liquidity do so when spreads are unusually wide. These short sellers are also strongly contrarian, stepping in to initiate or increase a short position after fairly sharp share price rises over the past hour or so, and they tend to face greater adverse selection than other liquidity suppliers. In contrast, shorts that demand liquidity tend to be shortterm momentum traders. However, there is no evidence that liquidity-demanding short sellers are any different from other liquidity demanders. Overall, liquidity-providing short sales are important contributors to stock market quality, and regulators and policymakers should keep these salutary effects in mind. JEL classification: G14, G1

Trading on Algos

Abstract This paper studies the impact of algorithmic trading (AT) on asset prices. We find that the heterogeneity of algorithmic traders across stocks generates predictable patterns in stock returns. A trading strategy that exploits the AT return predictability generates a monthly risk-adjusted performance between 50-130 basis points for the period 1999 to 2012. We find that stocks with lower AT have higher returns, after controlling for standard market-, size-, book-to-market-, momentum, and liquidity risk factors. This effect survives the inclusion of many cross-sectional return predictors and is statistically and economically significant. Return predictability is stronger among stocks with higher impediments to trade and higher predatory/opportunistic algorithmic traders. Our paper is the first to study and establish a strong link between algorithmic trading and asset prices

How to Divide the Possession of a Football?

Abstract: In an National Football League overtime, a coin is tossed to determine which team will receive the kick off. In the sudden death format starting on offense has a significantly higher chance of winning. We examine two proposals to improve the ex post fairness: auctions and divide-and-choose. We find the auction to provide a better outcome than the divide-and-choose rule in general when the teams have asymmetric assessments about how the overtime game may unfold. The result has broad implications for resource division when individuals do not have complete information about the objects being divided