Population Dynamics, Agglomeration Economies and Municipal Size: a Long-Term Analysis

Under the hypothesis that modifications in municipal boundaries and creation (or suppression) of new administrative units reflect a progressive adjustment toward a more balanced distribution of population over space, the present study investigates the long-term relationship (1928-2012) between urban expansion, population dynamics and municipal area in a growing metropolitan region (Athens, Greece). In expanding regions, municipal size is a key variable outlining the amount and spatial concentration of services and infrastructures, resulting to be functionally related to population density, agglomeration factors, land availability to building and characteristic socioeconomic profiles of local communities. A statistical analysis of the relationship between population density and municipal area provides basic knowledge to policy and planning adjustments toward a more balanced spatial distribution of population and land among the local government units. Descriptive statistics, mapping, correlation analysis and linear regressions were used to assess the evolution of such relationship over a sufficiently long time period. The average municipal area in Athens decreased moderately over time, with a slight increase in spatial heterogeneity. Conversely, the average population density per municipality increased more rapidly, with a considerable reduction in spatial heterogeneity. The observed goodness-of-fit of the linear relationship between population density and municipal area increased significantly over time. The empirical results of our study indicate that municipal size has progressively adjusted to population density across metropolitan areas, determining a more balanced spatial distribution of the resident population, which was consolidated by the recent administrative reform of the local authorities in Greece (the so called ‘Kallikratis’ law). Such conditions represent a base for the informed analysis of the spatial structure of local administrative units and they contribute to the debate on the optimal size of municipalities and other administrative districts with relevant impact on both urban and metropolitan scales of governance

Exploring the spatial structure of housing prices under economic expansion and stagnation: The role of socio-demographic factors in metropolitan Rome, Italy

Analysis of changes over time in the spatial structure of housing prices provides reliable information to infer latent patterns and processes of urban growth. Although the 2008 financial recession had a negative impact on building activity in Europe - and especially in southern Europe - the overall impact of the global crisis on the spatial structure of housing prices has been occasionally investigated at the local scale. The present study compares the spatial structure of transaction prices under economic expansion (2003–2009) and recession (2009–2015) in Rome (central Italy), evaluating the combined influence of demography, land-use and territorial factors. Transaction prices increased significantly during expansion and decreased less sharply during recession. The highest housing prices were recorded in downtown Rome. Convergence and divergence in the level of housing prices between urban and rural areas were observed respectively during economic expansion and recession. The empirical results of this study indicate that the 2008 financial crisis influenced considerably the spatial structure of housing prices in Rome, weakening the urban-rural divide and consolidating the gap between wealthy and poor neighbourhoods

DEsigning SusTainable energy transItioN pathwaYs (DESTINY): a multi-scale integrated modelling framework

The European long-term strategy for a prosperous, equitable and climate-neutral economy by 2050 imposes an urgent energy transition in order to meet the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. In consideration of the multifaceted nature of the energy transition, which could take advantage from the new approach of the EU policies towards its Member States, it is crucial to evaluate this process as comprehensively as possible, formulating feasible and sustainable policies at national level. This requires a set of innovative interconnected instruments, which allow tracking the technological feasibility of the transition process and its implications in terms of economic, social and environmental sustainability. At the same time, it is necessary to take account of the specificities at subnational level in consideration of the role that local features excite in shaping the overall process of energy transition. The proposed DEsigning SusTainable energy transItioN pathwaYs (DESTINY) project strives to respond to these evaluation needs by developing a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, which derives from the linkage of a series of models from different disciplines. The main objective of this undertaking is to provide a novel set of tools to design alternative energy transition paths and support the policy decisions to ensure the short and long-term sustainability. In this perspective, the project integrates and complements the engineering and the economic approaches into a unified and coherent multi-scale framework. Thus, compared to the existing integrated modelling approaches, it fully exploits interactions and feedbacks between energy and socio-economic systems, assessing multisectoral and multiregional economic and environmental impacts of transition pathways, including distributional aspects, financial sustainability of fiscal policies and well-being indicators. Specifically, the bottom-up energy system model determines the technically feasible, least-cost energy supply technology mixes over the planning horizon to satisfy a given energy demand. The micro-macro household demand modelling, which integrates demographic, financial and social variables will estimate, among other commodities, the final demand of energy services and will exchange these results with energy and macroeconomic models. A multiregional and multisectoral approach characterizes both the Stock Flow Consistent model and the dynamic CGE model, both integrated with environmental and well-being indicators. These models allow quantifying the changes in production processes, activated by the adjustment in the final demand composition and by policies set by the policy maker to support the transition process. This modelling framework in which all models share data and results will provide a sound support to the central and local policy makers in selecting the most effective policy measures to support the energy transition process in a context of socio-economic sustainability