Eurozone Membership and Foreign Direct Investment

Our aim in this chapter is to estimate the effects of European Monetary Union (EMU) membership on foreign direct investment (FDI). Previous literature on the cross-border impact of a common currency have concentrated on international trade effects. Our analysis is based on the gravity model, which has been successfully applied to explain most forms of bilateral cross-border flows. We estimate a structural gravity model using data for 34 OECD countries between 1985 and 2013 for bilateral FDI. We use a variety of econometric techniques to ensure the robustness of our findings including stock as well as flow measures of FDI and addressing selection issues. Our estimates of the impact of EMU underlines the role of FDI as a channel for benefits from deep economic integration between countries. The effect of EMU membership on FDI is estimated to be significant and positive, at around 130%

The timing of monetary policy shocks

A vast empirical literature has documented delayed and persistent effects of monetary policy shocks on output. We show that this finding results from the aggregation of output impulse responses that differ sharply depending on the timing of the shock: when the monetary policy shock takes place in the first two quarters of the year, the response of output is quick, sizable, and dies out at a relatively fast pace. In contrast, output responds very little when the shock takes place in the third or fourth quarter. We propose a potential explanation for the differential responses based on uneven staggering of wage contracts across quarters. Using a stylized dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that a very modest amount of uneven staggering can generate differences in output responses similar to those found in the data