Measuring the economic impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture : Ricardian approach

This study uses the Ricardian approach to analyze the impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture and to describe farmer adaptations to varying environmental factors. The study analyzes data from 11 of the country's 18 agro-ecological zones, representing more than 74 percent of the country, and survey of 1,000 farmers from 50 districts. Regressing of net revenue on climate, household, and soil variables show that these variables have a significant impact on the farmers'net revenue per hectare.The study carries out a marginal impact analysis of increasing temperature and changing precipitation across the four seasons. In addition, it examines the impact of uniform climate scenarios on farmers'net revenue per hectare. Additionally, it analyzes the net revenue impact of predicted climate scenarios from three models for the years 2050 and 2100. In general, the results indicate that increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation are both damaging to Ethiopian agriculture. Although the analysis did not incorporate the carbon fertilization effect, the role of technology, or the change in prices for the future, significant information for policy-making can be extracted.Environmental Economics&Policies,Climate Change,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development

Effects of climatic conditions and agro-ecological settings on the productive efficiencies of small-holder farmers in Ethopia

This study argues that the adaptation measures farmers take to reduce the negative impacts of climate change do affect farmers’ efficiency of production. To support this argument, two steps were followed to understand how climatic factors especially long term average seasonal rainfall and temperature; and agro-ecological settings affect production efficiency in Ethiopian agriculture. In the first step, the stochastic frontier approach was employed to analyze the farm level technical efficiency. In the second step, the tobit regression model was adopted to analyze how climatic and agro-ecological settings affect efficiency scores derived from the first step. Results from the first step indicated that the surveyed farmers have an average technical efficiency of 0.50; with significant output elasticits of labor, draft power and tractor. Results from the tobit regression model showed that soil types, run-off, seasonal climatic conditions and agro-ecological settings affect technical efficiency in Ethiopian agriculture.Technical efficiency, seasonal climate, agro-ecology, Ethiopia

Evaluation of Resistance Reaction of Maize Inbred Lines to Major Foliar Diseases in Ethiopia

Maize (Zea mays L.) production in Ethiopia is constantly threatened by the potential outbreak of major foliar diseases such as Turcicum leaf blight (TLB), Gray leaf spot (GLS) and Common leaf rust (CLR). Improvement of host resistance to these diseases can provide an important component of integrated disease management, which is the most effective and practical method of managing maize diseases. This study was conducted to evaluate the reaction of maize inbred lines to TLB, GLS and CLR diseases in the rain seasons, during 2014 and 2015. The inbred lines were obtained from Bako National Maize Research Center, breeding program, and it was arranged using alpha-lattice design with two replications. The inbred lines were evaluated in TLB and GLS screening nurseries under artificial inoculation at Bako Agricultural Research Center, West Shewa, Ethiopia. For rust resistance, screening was done under natural infestation at Hawassa Maize Research sub- Center, Hawassa, Ethiopia. Disease severity (1-5 scale) was assessed at ten days interval from disease onset until the maize reached the dent stage. All the inbred lines showed symptoms of the three major diseases in both seasons, but the intensity of the diseases differed significantly (P<0.001) among the inbred lines. The interaction between genotype x year was observed non-significant for the observed foliar diseases, indicating that differences in each foliar diseases; TLB, GLS & CLR severity were mainly contributed by the genotypes. Meteorological data of both seasons/years showed almost similar rain fall & temperature values, which may explains the reasons behind this. Based on combined average severity, only six inbred lines; 30G 19F2-43-1-1-1-1-1-1, CML-197 x 142-1-e(F2) 60-1-1-2-1-1, CML383, (ZM-605-C2F2-428-3-B-B-B-B-B-B-B/F7215)-2-2-2-1-1, 30G 19F2-54-1-1-1and DE-38-Z-126-3-2-2-1-1, displayed a resistance reactions to all the three diseases evaluated when compared with the multiple-resistant check (142-1-e). About, 22 and 18 inbred lines were found resistant (score 1.0-2.0 on a 1-5 scale) to TLB and GLS under artificial epiphytotic conditions, respectively. Seventeen inbred lines exhibited resistance to CLR under natural infestation in the field condition. In the resistant inbred lines, a wide range of diversity was observed for agronomic traits such as plant height (cm), ear height (cm) Plant & ear aspect (1-5), and grain yield per hectare. The results from the present study reveal a shortage of lines with multiple-resistance to these diseases in the inbred lines currently used in mid-altitude maize hybrid production in Ethiopia. It is, therefore, indispensable to look for inbred lines that have resistance to multiple foliar diseases that could be used as source of resistance for conversion of the susceptible germplasm or for direct use as parents of commercial hybrids. Focus should also be given on pyramiding genes for resistance in the breeding programmes to develop varieties with multiple resistances to these major diseases in Ethiopia. Keywords: Foliar diseases, Grain yield, Inoculation, Resistance, Zea may

Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) – A Review

Maize lethal necrosis is a serious disease of maize in Africa from its first appearance in Kenya. In Ethiopia the disease was observed during in the previous assessment and it was confirmed by ELISA test. The disease has now gained the momentum in spreading to many countries of East African where maize crop is grown simply because of insufficient knowledge on how to manage the disease. It has therefore raised a major concern in Eastern Africa communities because of the effect associated. The disease is naturally known to affect varieties of maize resulting in chlorotic mottling of the leaves, severe stunting and necrosis which as a result hinders the physiological processes of the plant such as photosynthesis, chlorophyll formation as well as denaturing enzymes necessary for the crop to produce, this further leads to low maize yields or plant death. Maize Lethal Necrosis disease is caused by double infection with Maize chlorotic mottle virus (MCMV) and any of the cereal viruses in Potyviridae group; Sugarcane mosaic virus (SCMV), Maize dwarf mosaic virus (MDMV) or Wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV). Highly affected areas may experience a massive yield loss of over 95% and this will affect total maize yield produced in the region. Evidence from previous studies indicated that most farmers had little knowledge on MLND and its control mechanisms. Further evidence showed that, there was limited research on crop diseases and more particularly in maize lethal necrosis disease. This paper deals with detailed review on the salient sequence of events associated with the occurrence of MLND, the present understanding on vector control-crop management experiences and findings all over the world that could potentially used to prevent spread of MLND in Ethiopia

Measuring Ethiopian farmers' vulnerability to climate change across regional states:

"This study analyzes the vulnerability of Ethiopian farmers to climate change based on the integrated vulnerability assessment approach using vulnerability indicators. The vulnerability indicators consist of the different socioeconomic and biophysical attributes of Ethiopia's seven agriculture-based regional states. The different socioeconomic and biophysical indicators of each region collected have been classified into three classes, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC 2001) definition of vulnerability, which consists of adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure. The results indicate that the relatively least-developed, semiarid, and arid regions—namely, Afar and Somali—are highly vulnerable to climate change. The Oromia region—a wide region characterized both by areas of good agricultural production in the highlands and midlands and by recurrent droughts, especially in the lowlands—is also vulnerable. The Tigray region, which is characterized by recurrent drought, is also vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change in comparison with the other regions. Thus, investing in the development of the relatively underdeveloped regions of Somali and Afar, irrigation for regions with high potential, early warning systems to help farmers better cope in times of drought, and production of drought-tolerant varieties of crops and species of livestock can all reduce the vulnerability of Ethiopian farmers to climate change." from authors' abstractClimate change, Vulnerability, adaptive capacity, regional states of Ethiopia,

Factors affecting the choices of coping strategies for climate extremes: The case of farmers in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

This study adopted the multinomial logit model to analyze factors affecting the choice of coping strategies in response to climate extreme events for the Ethiopian Nile River Basin. Results from the multinomial logit model show that different socioeconomic and environmental factors affect coping with climate extreme events. Factors that positively influence coping include education of the head of household, gender of household head being male, farm income, livestock ownership, access to extension for crop and livestock production, farmer-to-farmer extension, temperature, ownership of radio, and better-quality house. Thus, to increase coping with covariate shocks, such as climate extreme events, policies should encourage income generation and asset holding (especially livestock), both of which will support consumption smoothing during and immediately after harsh climatic events. Moreover, government policies should focus on developing institutions that enhance access to education and extension services.climate extremes, coping, Nile Basin, multinomial logit model,

Assessing household vulnerability to climate change: The case of farmers in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Vulnerability to climate extremes, Nile Basin of Ethiopia, Minimum daily income, Climate change,

Assessment of the vulnerability of Ethiopian agriculture to climate change and farmers’ adaptation strategies

This study focused on two central themes. The first addressed the vulnerability of farmers to climate change at household and regional levels. The second theme analysed determinants of adaptation measures and factors influencing the perceptions of climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Three approaches are employed to address the above themes. The first approach is the vulnerability to expected poverty approach. It is based on estimating the probability that a given shock or set of shocks moves consumption by households below a given minimum level (such as a consumption poverty line) or forces the consumption level to stay below the given minimum requirement if it is already below this level. This is adopted to assess vulnerability at household level. Secondly, the method of principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to create vulnerability indices to conduct a comparative analysis of the vulnerability across regional states. Lastly, the Heckman selection probit model is used to analyse the two-step process of adaptation, which consists of perceiving a change in climate followed by taking appropriate adaptation measures in response. Results indicate that vulnerability is highly sensitive to a minimum income requirement (poverty line) that farm households require to survive on a daily basis. For example, when the daily minimum income is fixed at US$0.3 per day, only 7 percent of farmers are vulnerable to future climate change, whereas at a minimum income level of US$2 per day, 93 percent of the farmers are vulnerable to climate extremes. Therefore, policies should encourage income generation and asset holding, both of which will enable consumption smoothing during and immediately after harsh climatic events. Results further show that the relatively least-developed, semi-arid and arid regions namely, Afar and Somali, are highly vulnerable to climate change. The large Oromia region, which is characterised both by areas of good agricultural production in the highlands and midlands and by recurrent droughts, especially in the lowlands, is also vulnerable. Furthermore, the Tigray region, which experiences recurring droughts, is also vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change in comparison with the other regions. Integrated rural development policies, aimed at alleviating poverty with special emphasis on the relatively less-developed regions of the country (i.e., Afar and Somali), can play a double role in reducing poverty and in increasing adaptive capacity to climate change. The study also reveals that experienced farmers, more educated farmers, better-off farmers, better-informed farmers, farmers who access extension and credit services and those with stronger social networks are more likely to perceive climate change and adapt. Government policies and investment strategies that support the provision of and access to education; credit; extension services on crop and livestock production; information on climate and adaptation measures across different agro-ecologies and encourage informal social networks are necessary to better adapt to climate change in Ethiopia.Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2010.Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Developmentunrestricte

The impact of climate change and adaptation on food production in low-income countries: Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia

"This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of climate change on food production in a typical low-income developing country. Furthermore, it provides an estimation of the determinants of adaptation to climate change and the implications of these strategies on farm productivity. The analysis relies on primary data from 1,000 farms producing cereal crops in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Based on monthly collected meteorological station data, the thin plate spline method of spatial interpolation was used to interpolate the specific rainfall and temperature values of each household. The rainfall data were disaggregated at the seasonal level. We found that climate change and climate change adaptations have significant impact on farm productivity. Extension services (both formal and farmer to farmer), as well as access to credit and information on future climate changes, affect adaptation positively and significantly. Farm households with larger access to social capital are more likely to adopt yield-related adaptation strategies." from authors' abstractAdaptation, Climate change, farm level productivity, rainfall,

Faba Bean Variety Development for Yield, Quality, and Disease Resistance for Water Logged Vertisol Areas-Registration of a Faba Bean Variety Named ‘Ashebeka’

A faba bean (Vicia faba L.) variety named Ashebeka with a pedigree designation of EH01075-4 has been released in 2015 by Kulumsa agricultural research center in Ethiopia. The variety is best adapted to waterlogging vertisol environments of Ethiopia with altitudes ranging from 1900 to 2800 meters above sea level. The variety was developed through hybridization between N86108-5 and BPL1297-1. The candidate variety has been tested at four locations (Arsi Robe, Sagure, Ambo and Inewari) representing major waterlogging vertisol environments of the country during 2012 and 2013 main cropping seasons making eight test environments. The variety is mainly characterized by its higher grain yield and heavier seed size (885g 1000 seeds-1) than the standard checks and all the remaining genotypes in the trail. The variety Ashebeka showed 34% seed size advantage over Hachalu, the popular best standard check recently released for water logging vertisol production areas. Based on selected a parametric method that includes yield rank and stability, Ashebeka showed better performance stability across the test environments and over years than the standard checks, Hachalu and Walki. The variety showed better overall agronomic performance, and moderately resistance to major faba bean disease including root rot, rust and chocolate spot than the standard checks in the trial, and could be cultivated across mid to high altitude agro-ecologies with water-logging vertisol conditions of the country