Forecasting by Stochastic Models to Inflow of Karkheh Dam at Iran

Forecasting the inflow of rivers to reservoirs of dams has high importance and complexity. Design and optimal operation of the dams is essential. Mathematical and analytical methods use for understanding estimating and prediction of inflow to reservoirs in the future. Various methods including stochastic models can be used as a management tool to predict future values of these systems. In this study stochastic models (ARIMA) are applied to records of mean annual flow Karkheh river entrance to Karkheh dam in the west of Iran. For this purpose we collected annual flow during the period from 1958/1959 to 2005/2006 in Jelogir Majin hydrometric station. The available data consists of 48 years of mean Annual discharge. Three types of ARIMA (p, d, q) models (0, 1, 1), (1, 1, 1) and (4, 1, 1) suggested, and the selected model is the one which give minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The Maximum Likelihood (ML), Conditional Least Square (CLS) and Unconditional Least Square (ULS) methods are used to estimate the model parameters. It is found that the model which corresponds to the minimum AIC is the (4, 1, 1) model in CLS estimation method. Port Manteau Lack of fit test and Residual Autocorrelation Function (RACF) test are applied as diagnostic checking. Forecasting of annual inflow for the period from 2006 to 2015 are compared with observed inflow for the same period and since agreement is very good adequacy of the selected model is confirmed

Flood Analysis in Karkheh River Basin using Stochastic Model

This study analyzed the annual streamflow of Karkheh River in Karkheh river basin in the west of Iran for flood forecasting using stochastic models. For this purpose, we collected annual stremflow (peak and maximum discharge) during the period from 1958 to 2015 in Jelogir Majin hydrometric station (upstream of Karkheh dam reservoir). A time series model (stochastic model or ARIMA) has three stages consists of: model identification, parameter estimation and diagnostic check. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation Function. Three types of ARIMA(p,d,q) models (0,1,1), (1,1,1) and (4,1,1) suggested for the studied series. The suggested model parameters were computed using the Maximum Likelihood (ML), Conditional Least Square (CLS) and Unconditional Least Square (ULS) methods. In model verification, the chosen criterion for model parsimony was the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and the diagnostic checks include independence of residuals. The best ARIMA model for this series was (4,1,1), with their AIC values of 88.9 and 77.8 for annual peak and maximum streamflow respectively. Forecast series up to a lead time of ten years future (2006 to 2015) were generated using the accepted ARIMA models. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by coefficient of determination (R2). Results show that the ARIMA model was adequate for the flood analysis in Karkheh River and the forecast of the series in short time at future

Modeling Climate Variables of Rivers Basin using Time Series Analysis (Case Study: Karkheh River Basin at Iran)

Stochastic models (time series models) have been proposed as one technique to generate scenarios of future climate change. Precipitation, temperature and evaporation are among the main indicators in climate study. The goal of this study is the simulation and modeling of climatic parameters such as annual precipitation, temperature and evaporation using stochastic methods (time series analysis). The 40-year data of precipitation and 37-year data of temperature and evaporation at Jelogir Majin station (upstream of Karkheh dam reservoir) in western of Iran has been used in this study and based on ARIMA model, The auto-correlation and partial auto-correlation methods, assessment of parameters and types of model, the suitable models to forecast annual precipitation, temperature and evaporation were obtained. After model validation and evaluation, the Predicting was made for the ten future years (2006 to 2015). In view of the Predicting made, the precipitation amounts will be decreased than recent years. As regards the mean of annual temperature and evaporation, the findings of the Predicting show an increase in temperature and evaporation