Impact of climate change on extinction risk of montane tree species.

The potential impacts of climate change on many species worldwide remains unknown, especially in those tropical regions that are centers of endemism and are highly biodiverse. This thesis provides an insight into the extinction risk of selected tree species using different species distribution modelling techniques and reviewing the current conservation status on montane forest in the Tropical Andes. Starting with a global analysis, the potential impacts of climate change on montane ecoregions is investigated, by identifying those that are more vulnerable to the expected changes in temperature and precipitation, from global predictions under different climate change scenarios. It then gives an insight on the current and potential threats to biodiversity in the Andean region, including the identification of those that are most likely to be responsible for increasing the extinction risk of the species. With the use of the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria, selected tree species were assessed to identify their extinction risk. Information on the species’ current distribution was collated and used to estimate their potential distribution under climate change, by using different modelling techniques. These results were used to reassess the species using the IUCN Red List and establish the changes in Red List Category. Lastly, it provides a discussion that integrates all the results obtained throughout the thesis, to explore the implications for conservation, in order to highlight the overriding importance of including threatened tree species to target conservation efforts in the region, while considering the uncertainties that surround predictions under climate change scenarios, modelling techniques and the use of the IUCN Red List

Towards a Global Tree Assessment

Although trees have high economic, cultural and ecological value, increasing numbers of species are potentially at risk of extinction because of forest loss and degradation as a result of human activities, including overharvesting, fire and grazing. Emerging threats include climate change and its interaction with the spread of pests and diseases. The impact of such threats on the conservation status of trees is poorly understood. Here we highlight the need to conduct a comprehensive conservation assessment of the world's tree species, building on previous assessments undertaken for the IUCN Red List. We suggest that recent developments in plant systematics, online databases, remote sensing data and associated analytical tools offer an unprecedented opportunity to conduct such an assessment. We provide an overview of how a Global Tree Assessment could be achieved in practice, through participative, open-access approaches to data sharing and evaluation

Social cartography and satellite-derived building coverage for post-census population estimates in difficult-to-access regions of Colombia

Effective government services rely on accurate population numbers to allocate resources. In Colombia and globally, census enumeration is challenging in remote regions and where armed conflict is occurring. During census preparations, the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics conducted social cartography workshops, where community representatives estimated numbers of dwellings and people throughout their regions. We repurposed this information, combining it with remotely sensed buildings data and other geospatial data. To estimate building counts and population sizes, we developed hierarchical Bayesian models, trained using nearby full-coverage census enumerations and assessed using 10-fold cross-validation. We compared models to assess the relative contributions of community knowledge, remotely sensed buildings, and their combination to model fit. The Community model was unbiased but imprecise; the Satellite model was more precise but biased; and the Combination model was best for overall accuracy. Results reaffirmed the power of remotely sensed buildings data for population estimation and highlighted the value of incorporating local knowledge

Global estimates of pregnancies at risk of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection in 2020 and changes in risk patterns since 2000.

BACKGROUND: Women are at risk of severe adverse pregnancy outcomes attributable to Plasmodium spp. infection in malaria-endemic areas. Malaria control efforts since 2000 have aimed to reduce this burden of disease. METHODS: We used data from the Malaria Atlas Project and WorldPop to calculate global pregnancies at-risk of Plasmodium spp. infection. We categorised pregnancies as occurring in areas of stable and unstable P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. We further stratified stable endemicity as hypo-endemic, meso-endemic, hyper-endemic, or holo-endemic, and estimated pregnancies at risk in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2020. FINDINGS: In 2020, globally 120.4M pregnancies were at risk of P. falciparum, two-thirds (81.0M, 67.3%) were in areas of stable transmission; 85 2M pregnancies were at risk of P. vivax, 93.9% (80.0M) were in areas of stable transmission. An estimated 64.6M pregnancies were in areas with both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. The number of pregnancies at risk of each of P. falciparum and P. vivax worldwide decreased between 2000 and 2020, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa, where the total number of pregnancies at risk of P. falciparum increased from 37 3M in 2000 to 52 4M in 2020. INTERPRETATION: Historic investments in malaria control have reduced the number of women at risk of malaria in pregnancy in all endemic regions except sub-Saharan Africa. Population growth in Africa has outpaced reductions in malaria prevalence. Interventions that reduce the risk of malaria in pregnancy are needed as much today as ever

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts

Spatiotemporal incidence of Zika and associated environmental drivers for the 2015-2016 epidemic in Colombia

Despite a long history of mosquito-borne virus epidemics in the Americas, the impact of the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic of 2015–2016 was unexpected. The need for scientifically informed decision-making is driving research to understand the emergence and spread of ZIKV. To support that research, we assembled a data set of key covariates for modeling ZIKV transmission dynamics in Colombia, where ZIKV transmission was widespread and the government made incidence data publically available. On a weekly basis between January 1, 2014 and October 1, 2016 at three administrative levels, we collated spatiotemporal Zika incidence data, nine environmental variables, and demographic data into a single downloadable database. These new datasets and those we identified, processed, and assembled at comparable spatial and temporal resolutions will save future researchers considerable time and effort in performing these data processing steps, enabling them to focus instead on extracting epidemiological insights from this important data set. Similar approaches could prove useful for filling data gaps to enable epidemiological analyses of future disease emergence events

A Regional Red List of Montane Tree Species of the Tropical Andes: Trees at the top of the world

Andean montane forests are a major global conservation priority owing to their biological richness and high level of species endemism. Botanically the Andes are very rich in species but they remain relatively unstudied. In common with montane forests elsewhere in the world, Andean forests are of great value for the provision of ecosystem services relating to water supply, regulation of regional climate and the capture and storage of carbon. The forests and their component species are however under threat. This report summarises information drawn from a wide variety of sources to provide a regional Red List of trees of Andean tropical montane forests. The species evaluation process has drawn on published national red lists of threatened species, botanical literature, specimen databases, forestry information and expert knowledge. The IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria have been used for the evaluation and a component of Natalia?s PhD study has been to evaluate their use for species with limited and dispersed data. Understanding the geographical distribution of the species is very important in conservation assessment. The maps produced for this study are a valuable starting point for the Red Listing and a baseline for monitoring impacts of climate change. In this assessment 70 species are recorded as globally threatened based on the IUCN Red List of Categories and Criteria out of 127 tree species evaluated. In addition 165 national endemic trees of the region have previously been evaluated as globally threatened based on the same IUCN process. In total therefore 235 tree species are currently considered to be threatened with extinction within the Andean montane forests.Fil: Tejedor Garavito , Natalia. Bournemouth University; Reino UnidoFil: Álvarez Dávila, Esteban. Jardín Botánico de Medellín; ColombiaFil: Caro, Sandra Arango. Missouri Botanical Garden; Estados UnidosFil: Murakami, Alejandro Araujo. Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado; BoliviaFil: Baldeón, Severo. Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos; PerúFil: Beltrán, Hamilton. Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos; PerúFil: Blundo, Cecilia Mabel. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto Miguel Lillo; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto Miguel Lillo. Laboratorio de Investigaciones Ecológicas de las Yungas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; ArgentinaFil: Boza Espinoza, Tatiana Erika. Missouri Botanical Garden; Estados UnidosFil: Fuentes Claros, Alfredo. Herbario Nacional de Bolivia; BoliviaFil: Gaviria, Juan. Universidad de Los Andes; VenezuelaFil: Gutiérrez, Néstor. Universidad de Los Andes; VenezuelaFil: Khela, Sonia. Botanic Gardens Conservation International; Reino UnidoFil: León, Blanca. University of Texas at Austin; Estados UnidosFil: la Torre Cuadros, Maria De Los Angeles. Universidad Nacional Agraria; PerúFil: López Camacho, René. Universidad Distrital; ColombiaFil: Malizia, Lucio Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Jujuy. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias. Centro de Estudios Ambientales Territoriales y Sociales; ArgentinaFil: Millán, Betty. Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos; PerúFil: Moraes R., Mónica. Herbario Nacional de Bolivia; BoliviaFil: Newton, Adrian C.. Bournemouth University; Reino UnidoFil: Pacheco, Silvia. Fundación Proyungas; ArgentinaFil: Reynel, Carlos. Universidad Nacional Agraria; PerúFil: Ulloa Ulloa, Carmen. Missouri Botanical Garden; Estados UnidosFil: Vacas Cruz,Omar. Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador; Ecuado

Evaluation of the conservation status of montane forest in the tropical Andes

Autores del artículo: N. Tejedor Garavito, E. Álvarez, S. Arango Caro, A. Araujo Murakami, C. Blundo, T.E. Boza Espinoza, M.A. La Torre Cuadros, J. Gaviria, N. Gutíerrez, P.M. Jørgensen, B. León, R. López Camacho, L. Malizia, B. Millán, M. Moraes, S. Pacheco, J.M. Rey Benayas, C. Reynel, M. Timaná de la Flor, C. Ulloa Ulloa, O. Vacas Cruz, A.C. Newton.Los Andes tropicales constituyen una región única con una alta diversidad de hábitats, producto de complejos gradientes espaciales y ambientales. Los bosques montanos de esta región son considerados como una prioridad global de conservación, debido principalmente a su elevada riqueza biológica y de endemismos. Sin embargo su biodiversidad es de las menos conocidas de toda la región tropical, aunque se reconoce la amplia gama de servicios ambientales que prestan, incluyendo la regulación del clima regional y la captura y almacenamiento de carbono. Este artículo ofrece una perspectiva general del estado de conservación de los bosques montanos tropicales andinos y de los retos que esta implica. Asimismo, proporciona información sobre sus amenazas, identificando aquéllas que con mayor probabilidad sean responsables de aumentar el riesgo de extinción de especies. Se resalta la necesidad de disponer de más información sobre el estado de conservación de las especies para identificar las futuras prioridades de conservación en la región. La reciente iniciativa de la "Lista Roja y planeación para la conservación de especies de árboles montanos de los Andes Tropicales", formada por delegados de varios países de la región, constituirá una sólida base para el desarrollo y enfoque de políticas y respuestas de manejo dirigidas a la reducción de la deforestación y pérdida de especies en estos bosques, incluyendo acciones para promover la creación de áreas protegidas, restauración forestal y manejo forestal sostenible.The tropical Andes is a unique region with high habitat diversity, resulting from complex climatic and spatial gradients. Andean montane forests are currently a major global conservation priority owing to their high species richness and high level of endemism. Nonetheless they are considered one of the least known ecosystems in the tropics, but the breath of ecosystem services that these forests provide, including the regulation of regional climate and the capture and storage of carbon, is widely recognised. This article presents an overview of the conservation status of tropical Andean montane forests and the challenges it entails. It also provides information on threats, including the identification of those that are most likely to be responsible for increasing the extinction risk for many species. It highlights the need for acquiring more information on the conservation status of species as to identify future priorities for conservation in the region. The recent initiative "Red List and conservation planning for montane tree species of the Tropical Andes," made of delegates from several countries in the region, will provide a solid basis for developing policies and managing responses aimed at reducing deforestation and species loss in these forests, including actions to promote the creation of protected areas, forest restoration and sustainable forest management

A Swot (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) Evaluation of University Student-Staff Partnerships in Co-creating Educational Resources, Peer Support and Research With in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics) Subjects

The aim of this research was to compare perceived opportunities and challenges of co-creating educational resources, peer learning support and research within Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics (STEM) subjects. Two questions were addressed: 1) What types of STEM co-creation outputs are perceived possible within the categories of education resources, research and peer learning support? 2) What was the perceived Strengths Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis for co-creation of education resources, research and peer learning support? Study Design: These questions were explored in a descriptive survey with 30 academic staff delegates from across STEM disciplines and UK universities who attended a Higher Education Academy workshop “Students as partners in co-creating STEM outputs.” Place and Duration of Study: The one day long workshop was hosted by Bournemouth University on Jan 16th 2014. Methodology: For question 1 the delegates gave examples from their experience for each of the following categories for co-creation: i) educational resources ii) peer learning support iii) research. For question 2 they worked as a team to consider one of these categories and, using nominal group technique, identified and themed as many strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats as possible to partnerships with students. Results: 29 different co-creation outputs were identified (7 for co-created educational resources, 10 for co-created research and 12 for co-created peer support). Delegates reported proportionally most strengths for co-created research and most challenges for co-created educational resources. Strengths centered on energizing student engagement through co-creating new products/understanding. Challenges highlighted the need to ensure more widespread student engagement to maintain momentum and data quality. Conclusion: Findings suggest that two keys ways to enhance co-creation of STEM outputs are to better understand the range of factors that motivate different students and to better enable students and staff to perceive the specific benefits to them of engaging in co-creation