Increasing Turkey's power system flexibility for grid integration of 50% renewable energy share

Secure and reliable operation of power systems with high wind and solar shares requires system flexibility. In this paper, an hourly-based market and grid simulation model is developed to assess security and reliability of a power system with high wind and solar energy share. The model is applied to Turkey as an emerging G20 country that aims to supply its rapidly growing electricity demand from local renewables and lignite as well as nuclear energy. The most ambitious scenario that covers the 2016–2026 period assumes half of all electricity demand is supplied from renewables (30% wind and solar and 20% other resources). This is achieved by ensuring system flexibility through system-friendly location of wind and solar capacity, energy storage, flexible thermal generators, and demand response. Without system flexibility, 3% of renewable power is curtailed and redispatch share required for system security and reliability doubles from current levels. Moreover, additional transmission grid investments are needed. Improving system flexibility ensures secure and reliable operation but increases system costs by 1%–5% with each flexibility option providing different scale benefits, indicating the need for system-wide planning. As gas-based generation declines below 10%, accounting for energy security benefits will be important. On the other hand, coal supply remains around 25% depending on nuclear energy development. At this crossroad, Turkey needs to make its choices to transition to a secure, clean and affordable energy system. The study addresses quantitatively how the flexibility options contribute to such a transition, providing learnings for countries with similar conditions

Consideration of Transient Stream/Aquifer Interaction with the Nonlinear Boussinesq Equation using HPM

AbstractThe phenomenon of stream–aquifer interaction was investigated via mathematical modeling using the Boussinesq equation. A new approximate solution of the one-dimensional Boussinesq equation is presented for a semi-infinite aquifer when the hydraulic head at the source is an arbitrary function of time. The differential equations were solved using the method of Homotopy Perturbation. The simplicity and accuracy of the approximation are compared with “exact” solution and illustrated numerically and graphically. The results reveal that the HPM is very effective and simple and provides highly accurate solutions for nonlinear differential equations

A new energy-economy-environment modeling framework: insights from decarbonization of the Turkish power Sector towards net-zero emission targets

The power sector plays a crucial role towards decarbonization for many economies, especially in line with the net-zero targets to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Technical constraints intrinsic to the sector, penetration of new technologies, investment and operational costs, and its connections with the rest of the economy make the power sector a complex system to analyze. Although there are numerous studies to integrate bottom-up power sector technology models with top-down macroeconomic models, this study is the first attempt to link the three separate and interrelated models within a single framework: an electricity market simulation model, a generation expansion planning model, and an applied general equilibrium model. The proposed framework is implemented to analyze a feasible decarbonization scenario for Türkiye, with a particular focus on the power sector. The results suggest that, given the existing capacity and potential for renewables, Türkiye can achieve a coal-phase out by early 2030s, alongside a trajectory towards a full-fledged fossil fuel phase-out in power generation. The results also indicate that while installed capacity and generation of coal-fired power plants are reduced, real GDP and electricity demand can be maintained and the carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector could be reduced by as much as 50% in 2030 compared to 2018 levels

Transport sector transformation: integrating electric vehicles in Turkey's distribution grids

This study investigates the impacts of integrating electrical vehicles to pilot distribution grids in Turkey to quantify technical concerns and solutions for the year 2030. Different charging loads that discern home, workplace and public charging are considered under two different cases; “home-charging-support” and “public-charging-support.” Random variables describing arrival time of electrical vehicles to the charging stations and associated state of charge at arrival time are modeled with a stochastic approach. Dependencies of electrical vehicle integration capacities of the pilot regions are investigated quantitatively based on several key performance indices. The study also analyzes effects on key performance indicators of demand response by electrical vehicle users, defined as smart charging. Key results show that there is sufficient capacity in the four selected Turkish distribution grids to integrate almost 10% electrical vehicles in the vehicle stock by 2030. Based on the results, priority areas are outlined for stakeholders including energy policymakers