11,033 research outputs found

    Exact Post-Selection Inference for Sequential Regression Procedures

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    We propose new inference tools for forward stepwise regression, least angle regression, and the lasso. Assuming a Gaussian model for the observation vector y, we first describe a general scheme to perform valid inference after any selection event that can be characterized as y falling into a polyhedral set. This framework allows us to derive conditional (post-selection) hypothesis tests at any step of forward stepwise or least angle regression, or any step along the lasso regularization path, because, as it turns out, selection events for these procedures can be expressed as polyhedral constraints on y. The p-values associated with these tests are exactly uniform under the null distribution, in finite samples, yielding exact type I error control. The tests can also be inverted to produce confidence intervals for appropriate underlying regression parameters. The R package "selectiveInference", freely available on the CRAN repository, implements the new inference tools described in this paper.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figure

    The dose-response relationship between training load and aerobic fitness in academy rugby union players

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    © 2018 Human Kinetics, Inc. Purpose: To identify the dose-response relationship between measures of training load (TL) and changes in aerobic fitness in academy rugby union players. Method: Training data from 10 academy rugby union players were collected during a 6-wk in-season period. Participants completed a lactate-threshold test that was used to assess VO 2 max, velocity at VO 2 max, velocity at 2 mmol/L (lactate threshold), and velocity at 4 mmol/L (onset of lactate accumulation; vOBLA) as measures of aerobic fitness. Internal-TL measures calculated were Banister training impulse (bTRIMP), Edwards TRIMP, Lucia TRIMP, individualized TRIMP (iTRIMP), and session RPE (sRPE). External-TL measures calculated were total distance, PlayerLoad™, high-speed distance > 15 km/h, very-high-speed distance > 18 km/h, and individualized high-speed distance based on each player’s vOBLA. Results: A second-order-regression (quadratic) analysis found that bTRIMP (R 2 = .78, P = .005) explained 78% of the variance and iTRIMP (R 2 = .55, P = .063) explained 55% of the variance in changes in VO 2 max. All other HR-based internal-TL measures and sRPE explained less than 40% of variance with fitness changes. External TL explained less than 42% of variance with fitness changes. Conclusions: In rugby players, bTRIMP and iTRIMP display a curvilinear dose-response relationship with changes in maximal aerobic fitness

    Application of digital particle image velocimetry to insect aerodynamics: measurement of the leading-edge vortex and near wake of a Hawkmoth.

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    Some insects use leading-edge vortices to generate high lift forces, as has been inferred from qualitative smoke visualisations of the flow around their wings. Here we present the first Digital Particle Image Velocimetry (DPIV) data and quantitative analysis of an insect’s leading-edge vortex and near wake at two flight speeds. This allows us to describe objectively 2D slices through the flow field of a tethered Tobacco Hawkmoth (Manduca sexta). The near-field vortex wake appears to braodly resemble elliptical vortex loops. The presence of a leading-edge vortex towards the end of the downstroke is found to coincide with peak upward force production measured by a six-component force–moment balance. The topology of Manduca’s leading-edge vortex differs from that previously described because late in the downstroke, the structure extends continuously from wingtip across the thorax to the other wingtip

    Structural characterization of decomposition in rate-insensitive stochastic Petri nets

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    This paper focuses on stochastic Petri nets that have an equilibrium distribution that is a product form over the number of tokens at the places. We formulate a decomposition result for the class of nets that have a product form solution irrespective of the values of the transition rates. These nets where algebraically characterized by Haddad et al.~as SΠ2S\Pi^2 nets. By providing an intuitive interpretation of this algebraical characterization, and associating state machines to sets of TT-invariants, we obtain a one-to-one correspondence between the marking of the original places and the places of the added state machines. This enables us to show that the subclass of stochastic Petri nets under study can be decomposed into subnets that are identified by sets of its TT-invariants

    Welfare Reform in Agricultural California

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    When welfare reforms were enacted in 1996, a higher than average percentage of residents in the agricultural heartland of California, the San Joaquin Valley, received cash assistance. Average annual unemployment rates during the 1990s ranged from 12% to 20%, and 15% to 20% of residents in major farming counties received cash benefits. This analysis develops and estimates a two-equation cross-sectionally correlated and timewise autoregressive model to test the hypothesis that in agricultural areas, seasonal work, low earnings, and high unemployment, as well as few entry-level jobs that offer wages and benefits equivalent to welfare benefits, promote welfare use and limit the potential of local labor markets to absorb ex-welfare recipients.cross-sectionally correlated and timewise autoregressive model, farm workers, immigration, welfare reform, Public Economics,

    Remittances, Inequality and Poverty: Evidence from Rural Mexico

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    Economic research has produced conflicting findings on the distributional impacts of migrant remittances, and there has been little research on the effects of changes in remittances on poverty. This paper utilizes new data from the Mexico National Rural Household Survey, together with inequality and poverty decomposition techniques, to explore the impacts of remittances on rural inequality and poverty. Our findings suggest that remittances from international migrants become more equalizing (or less unequalizing), as well as more effective at reducing poverty, as the prevalence of migration increases.Labor and Human Capital,

    Subaru Weak Lensing survey -- II: Multi-object Spectroscopy and Cluster Masses

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    We present the first results of a MOS campaign to follow up cluster candidates located via weak lensing. Our main goals are to search for spatial concentrations of galaxies that are plausible optical counterparts of the weak lensing signals, and to determine the cluster redshifts from those of member galaxies. Around each of 36 targeted cluster candidates, we obtain 15-32 galaxy redshifts. For 28 of these targets, we confirm a secure cluster identification. This includes three cases where two clusters at different redshifts are projected along the same line-of-sight. In 6 of the 8 unconfirmed targets, we find multiple small galaxy concentrations at different redshifts. In both the remaining two targets, a single small galaxy concentration is found. We evaluate the weak lensing mass of confirmed clusters. For a subsample of our most cleanly measured clusters, we investigate the statistical relation between their weak lensing mass and the velocity dispersion of their member galaxies, comparing our sample with optically and X-ray selected samples from the literature. Our lensing-selected clusters are consistent with sigma_v=sigma_sis, with a similar scatter to the optically and X-ray selected clusters. We thus find no evidence of selection bias compared to these other techniques. We also derive an empirical relation between the cluster mass and the galaxy velocity dispersion, which is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of N-body simulations in the LCDM cosmology.Comment: 58 pages, 45 figures, submitted to PASJ. A version with full-resolution figures is available at http://th.nao.ac.jp/~hamanatk/PP/supcam_wl2.pd
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