Multivariate Discrete First Order Stochastic Dominance

This paper characterizes the principle of first order stochastic dominance in a multivariate discrete setting. We show that a distribution f first order stochastic dominates distribution g if and only if f can be obtained from g by iteratively shifting density from one outcome to another that is better. For the bivariate case, we develop the theoretical basis for an algorithmic dominance test that is easy to implement.multidimensional first degree distributional dominance; robust poverty gap dominance; majorization; generalized equivalence result

Ordinal Comparison of Multidimensional Deprivation: theory and application

This paper develops an ordinal method of comparison of multidimensional inequality. In our model, population distribution g is more unequal than f when the distributions have common median and can be obtained from f by one or more shifts in population density that increase inequality. For our benchmark 2x2 case (i.e. the case of two binary outcome variables), we derive an empirical method for making inequality comparisons. As an illustration, we apply the model to childhood poverty in Mozambique.qualitative data; multidimensional first order dominance; multidimensional inequality; ordinal comparison

Policy bias and agriculture: partial and general equilibrium measures

The paper examines the impact of industrial protection, agricultural export taxes, and overvaluation of the exchange rate on the balance between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. A variety of agricultural terms-of-trade indices are constructed to measure the policy bias against agriculture in a general equilibrium framework that incorporates traded and non-traded goods. These general equilibrium measures are compared to earlier work in a partial equilibrium framework assuming perfect substitutability between domestic and traded goods. Starting from a stylized computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Tanzania, we simulate a 25 percent tariff on non-agriculture and a 25 percent export tax on agriculture. We also consider the impact of changes in the equilibrium exchange rate. The results indicate that the partial equilibrium measures miss much of the action operating through indirect product and factor market linkages, while overstating the strength of the linkages between changes in the exchange rate and prices of traded goods on the agricultural terms of trade.Terms of trade., Equilibrium (Economics) Mathematical models., Tanzania., Computable general equilibrium (CGE)., Agricultural trade.,

South African Economy

What are the macroeconomic prospects for South Africa until the new millennium? Two methods of macroeconomic modelling, associated with the World Bank and IMF, are used here to generate three scenarios, based on moderately optimistic projections. The methodology used can be applied to other developing countries

A Simple Macroeconomic Framework for South Africa

This paper presents a number of policy experiments carried out within a modelling framework, which can be characterized as a merger of the financial programming and the revised minimum standard models, associated with respectively the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The baserun underlying the policy simulations is a six- year projection of the South African economy based on moderately optimistic assumptions about economic growth and the inflow of foreign capital. It clearly transpires that the choice of financing source of expanded government activity can matter a great deal for economic outcomes, and also changes in the composition of government spending can affect real output and other macroeconomic variables. Yet, the framework is ill-suited to analyze policies for export promotion

A Simple Macroeconomic Framework for South Africa

This paper presents a number of policy experiments carried out within a modelling framework, which can be characterized as a merger of the financial programming and the revised minimum standard models, associated with respectively the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The baserun underlying the policy simulations is a six- year projection of the South African economy based on moderately optimistic assumptions about economic growth and the inflow of foreign capital. It clearly transpires that the choice of financing source of expanded government activity can matter a great deal for economic outcomes, and also changes in the composition of government spending can affect real output and other macroeconomic variables. Yet, the framework is ill-suited to analyze policies for export promotion