Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power – Overview of the ANEMOS Project.

International audienceThe aim of the European Project ANEMOS is to develop accurate and robust models that substantially outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced statistical, physical and combined modelling approaches were developed for this purpose. Priority was given to methods for on-line uncertainty and prediction risk assessment. An integrated software platform, 'ANEMOS', was developed to host the various models. This system is installed by several end-users for on-line operation and evaluation at a local, regional and national scale. Finally, the project demonstrates the value of wind forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short-term forecasting, numerical weather predictions, on-line software, tools for wind integration

An offshore transmission grid for wind power integration: The European techno-economic study OffshoreGrid

An offshore power transmission grid in Northern Europe has become a serious and important topic among the power industry, the power transmission sector, national governments and the European Commission. The OffshoreGrid project will provide policy recommendations for the political process towards such a grid in pursuing the efficient integration of renewables, the integration of market regions, security of supply and the competitiveness of the European economy. OffshoreGrid will develop a scientific view on an offshore grid along with a suited regulatory framework considering technical, economic and policy aspects. The project is targeted towards European policy makers, industry, transmission system operators and regulators. In first instance, the geographical scope is Northern Europe. The paper covers the general approach and objectives of the project. Furthermore, the first results of the preparatory work packages are presented and discussed

POW'WOW. A coordination action on the prediction of waves, wakes and offshore wind (poster)

International audienceThis paper describes a new project trying to harmonise approaches to wave and wind modelling offshore, helping the short-term forecasting and wake research communities by establishing virtual laboratories, offering specialised workshops, and setting up expert groups with large outreach in the mentioned fields. Currently, a good number of research projects is underway on the European and national level in the fields of short-term forecasting of wind power, offshore wind and wave resource prediction, and offshore wakes in large wind farms. The purpose of this Action is to co-ordinate the activities in these related fields, to spread the knowledge gained from these projects among the partners and colleagues, and to start work on some roadmaps for the future. Therefore, the leaders of research projects are assuming the function of a multiplier towards the larger research and user community. Additionally, in the fields of short-term forecasting and offshore energy resource, Expert Groups will be formed to act as the central focus point for external stakeholders. The liaison with other groups will also include groups outside of Europe. To facilitate the spread of knowledge, a number of workshops are planned, being smaller and more focused on their topics than the usual conferences. One issue hampering the progress in our fields is the difficulty of getting access to good data. In most cases, data on offshore wind or power is strictly confidential, and also data on onshore wind power, especially in conjunction with numerical weather predictions, is not easy to come by. One example of a good testing procedure comes from the Anemos project, where in all 6 test cases were defined, to be run by all involved institutes. This idea is taken to the next level with the set-up of two Virtual Laboratories, one for offshore wake modelling, the other one for short-term forecasting. Two guides on best practices will be written, one on short-term forecasting (bringing the experiences of high wind penetration countries to those with little wind power) and one for wake modelling. In the end, this Coordination Action will also support preparation of next actions such as a Network of Excellence or an Integrated Project, connecting many additional partners within the European Research Area. The project is funded by the European Commission

POW'WOW - Virtual laboratories and best practice guides for the prediction of waves, wakes and offshore wind

International audienceThis paper describes a new project trying to harmonise approaches to wave and wind modelling offshore, helping the short-term forecasting and wake research communities by establishing virtual laboratories, offering specialised workshops, and setting up expert groups with large outreach in the mentioned fields. Currently, a good number of research projects is underway on the European and national level in the fields of short-term forecasting of wind power, offshore wind and wave resource prediction, and offshore wakes in large wind farms. The leaders of those research projects are assuming the function of a multiplier towards the larger research and user community. In the fields of short-term forecasting and offshore energy resource, Expert Groups will be formed to act as the central focus point for external stakeholders. The liaison with other groups will also include groups outside of Europe. To facilitate the spread of knowledge, a number of workshops is planned. One of them took place just before this conference on the topic of best practice in the use of short-term forecastingsystems, where utilities with a combined experience of over 50 years and a combined wind power installation of over 30 GW could share their experiences and views on the best use of those systems. A preliminary overview of the resulting best practice guide will be given. One issue hampering the progress in our fields is the difficulty of getting access to good data. In most cases, data on offshore wind or power is strictly confidential, and also data on onshore wind power, especially in conjunction with numerical weather predictions, is not easy to come by. One example of a good testing procedure comes from the Anemos project, where in all 6 test cases were defined, to be run by all involved institutes. This idea is taken to the next level with the set-up of two Virtual Laboratories, one for offshore wake modelling, the other one for short-term forecasting. Both laboratories will be well-defined and maybe already open for business by the time of the workshop

What performance can be expected by short-term wind power prediction models depending on site characteristics?

International audienceThe scope of the European R&D project ANEMOS (ENK5-CT-2002-00665) is to improve the accuracy of short-term wind power forecasting technology. In the frame of this project, a number of case-studies were setup covering onshore wind farms at flat, semi-complex and complex terrain as well as offshore ones. For these cases, several years of measurements and numerical weather predictions from various Numerical Weather Prediction systems were collected. A number of eleven state-of-the-art models were run for the test cases. These are operational models used today in Spain, Denmark, Ireland, Germany, Greece etc. An appropriate protocol was established to enable meaningful and systematic comparisons. The paper presents in detail results from this evaluation as well as guidelines on assessing the performance of a model as a function of the site characteristics