Mankiw's Puzzle on Consumer Durables: A Misspecification

Mankiw (1982) shows that consumer durables expenditures should follow a linear ARMA(1,1) process, but the data analyzed supports an AR(1) process instead; thus, a puzzle. In this paper, we employ a more general utility function than Mankiw's quadratic one. Further, the disturbance and depreciation rate are respecified, respectively, as multiplicative and stochastic. The analytical consequence is a nonlinear ARMA(infinity,1) process, which implies that the linear ARMA(1,1) is a misspecification. A historical data analysis appears to support the nonlinear model. Since actual data are influenced by historical events, we also carry out a Monte Carlo study to strengthen our pointutility function, multiplicative disturbance, nonlinear ARMA(8,1) process, stochastic depreciation, misspecification error

The Economics of Natural Disasters in a Developing Country: The Case of Vietnam

We examine impact of natural disasters on annual output and output growth in Vietnam. Using provincial data for primary and secondary industries in Vietnam, we employ the Blundell-Bond System GMM procedure to estimate the impact of disasters on the macro-economy. Results show that more lethal disasters result in lower output growth but that more costly disasters (in terms of destroyed capital) actually appear to boost the economy in the short-run. This result is consistent with the ‘creative destruction’ hypothesis that we outline. However we find that disasters have different macroeconomic impact in different geographical regions; and these differences are potentially related to the ability to generate transfers from the central government.Vietnam, natural disasters, growth, exogenous shocks

Capital Account Liberalization and Foreign Direct Investment

We examine the impact of capital account policies on FDI inflows. Using an annual panel dataset of 83 developing and developed countries for 1984-2000, we find that capital account openness is positively but only very moderately associated with the amount of FDI inflows after controlling for other macroeconomic and institutional measures. To a large extent, other country characteristics seem to determine FDI inflows instead of capital account policies. Furthermore, we find that capital controls are easily circumvented in corrupt and politically unstable regimes. We conclude that liberalizing the capital account is not sufficient to generate increases in inflows unless it is accompanied by a lower level of corruption or a decrease in political risk.Foreign direct investment, capital controls, capital flows, capital account liberalization

Sectoral Analysis of Foreign Investment and Growth In the Developed Countries

Empirical studies on FDI and growth in developed countries have yielded conflicting results using cross-country regressions. We use sectoral data for a group of six country members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Our paper is the first to identify the sector-specific impact of FDI on growth in the developed countries. Our results show that FDI might have positive or negative effect on economic growth operating directly and through its interaction with labor. Moreover, we find the effects seem to be very different across countries and economic sectors.Foreign direct investment, growth

Enhanced Antiretroviral treatment support in relation to Quality of Life and Virological failure in low income setting : A cluster randomized controlled trial in Quang Ninh, Vietnam

Background Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has become more widely available in Vietnam since 2005. However, up to now, very little is known about characteristics of people living with HIV (PLHIV) at ART initiation including factors influencing ART adherence. On the other hand, scaling up HIV care in Vietnam faces challenges, including shortages of health care personnel willing to work with HIV-infected individuals resulting in heavy workloads and constrained support to patient adherence. To counter this, community-based peer support interventions have sought to improve adherence to ART, to lessen internal HIV-related stigma as well as to improve treatment outcomes. Aim The overall aim of this thesis is to assess the effect of enhanced treatment support on treatment outcomes including Immunological and Virological failure as well as Quality of Life among PLHIV on ART in, Quang Ninh, Vietnam. The aim of study (paper) I was to explore factors influencing adherence to antiretroviral therapy and to assess possible intervention strategies to enhance ART adherence. The aim of study II was to describe patient characteristics at baseline with an emphasis on sero-discordance among married patients. The aim of study III was to assess the impact of peer support on quality of life after one year follow up. The aim of study IV was to assess the effect of the peer support intervention on adherence as well as immunological and virological failure after 2 years of follow up. Methods Data for the thesis was collected in Quang Ninh, a province in Northern Vietnam, and was organized into four studies (I-IV). In study I a qualitative approach was used through focus group discussions with persons living with HIV and their family members. Based on the findings from study I, an intervention strategy was developed engaging PLHIV to support adherence, peer support, with home visits twice a week the first two months and thereafter weekly. Study II, III and IV were based on a cluster randomized controlled trial to assess the effect of peer support on quality of life (QOL) as well as adherence, immunological and virological treatment failure among 640 PLHIV initiating ART in 4 districts in Quang Ninh. In study II, a baseline structured questionnaire was used to assess characteristics of patients initiating ART. In study III a structured questionnaire was used to assess QOL (WHOQOL-HIVBREF) which was conducted every four months. In study IV the adherence assessment was done using a modified AACTG structured questionnaire which was carried out every 3 months, immunological and virological failure were assessed using CD4 count and viral load (Exavir Load) every 6 months. Findings In study I, stigma was described as the main barrier to ART adherence, causing patients to delay their ART medications of fear of unintentional disclosure. The preferred support to enhance adherence among patients was community-based peer-support by other PLHIV who had received sufficient training. Study II showed that PLHIV initiating ART in Quang Ninh generally had severe immunosuppression and males presented with more severe immunosuppression than females. Of male patients, the majority (70%) reported a history of heroin use and HIV transmission through sharing needles, among females the majority reported sexual transmission (95%). The sero-discordance rate among the married patients was in total 58%, significantly higher among men compared to women (71% vs. 18%). Factors associated with a high rate of sero-discordance were injection drug use (IDU) history, tuberculosis (TB) history and the availability of voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) in residential locations. High sero-concordance was associated with college/university education. In study III, there was a significantly higher QOL rating in the peer support intervention group compared to the control group after 12 months follow up among patients who were enrolled on ART with severe immunosuppression but not for patients enrolled with mild or no clinical symptoms. The peer support intervention did not have any effect on Internal AIDS-related stigma. Study IV showed no significant difference between intervention and control group on self-reported adherence, virological and immunological failure rates after 2 years of follow up. High VL at baseline is a predictor for both VL failure and CD4 trends (IV). Conclusions: Stigma is reported to be a main obstacle to HIV treatment adherence. To prevent HIV transmission among sero-discordant couples measures should be taken including increased information, provision of condoms as well as ART to the HIV positive partner regardless of CD4 count. Peer support has a positive impact on QOL among patients initiating ART severely immune-compromised. Peer support did not show any significant effect on self-reported adherence, virological and immunological failure rates after 2 year of follow up. The results suggest adherence support measures for PLHIV on ART should be contextualized according to individual, clinical and social needs

Is Foreign Direct Investment Good for Growth? Evidence from Sectoral Analysis of China and Vietnam

We estimate the impact of FDI on growth using sectoral data for FDI inflows to China and Vietnam. Previous empirical studies, using either cross-country growth regressions or firm-level micro-econometric analysis, fail to reach a consensus. Our paper is the first to use sectoral FDI inflow data to evaluate the sector-specific impact of FDI on growth. Our results show that, for the two developing-transition economies we examine, FDI has a statistically-significant positive effect on economic growth operating directly and through its interaction with labor. Intriguingly, we find the effects seem to be very different across economic sectors, with almost all the beneficial impact limited to industrial sector. Other sectors appear to gain very little growth benefit from sector-specific FDI.Foreign direct investment, growth, China, Vietnam

Global Market Shocks and Poverty in Vietnam: The Case of Rice

World food prices have experienced dramatic increases in recent years. These "shocks" affect food importers and exporters alike. Vietnam is a major exporter of rice, and rice is also a key item in domestic production, employment and consumption. Accordingly, rice price shocks from the world market have general equilibrium impacts and as such, their implications for household welfare are not known ex ante. In this paper we first present a simple framework for understanding the direct and indirect welfare effects of a global market shock of this kind. Second, we quantify the transmission of the price shock from global indicator prices to domestic markets. Third, we then we use an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to simulate the effects of domestic price changes in more detail. Fourth, a recursive mapping to a large nationally representative living standards survey permits us to identify in detail the ceteris paribus effects of the shock on household incomes and welfare. In this analysis, interregional and intersectoral adjustments in the labor market emerge as key channels transmitting the effects of global price shocks across sectors and among households.

New records of the genus Miconchus (Mononchida, Anatonchidae) for Vietnam nematode fauna

Two species of the genus Miconchus, viz. M. dahousiensis and M. baeticus, were recorded for the first time in Vietnam. The two collected species from Tuyen Quang, Ha Giang and Bac Can Provinces were redescribed and illustrated.