Modelling and forecasting Zimbabwe’s immigrants using SARIMA models.

The remarkable increase in the Zimbabwe’s migration is of major concern in terms of planning purposes and policy formulation by the government, Non-governmental organizations (NGOs), tourism authorities, investors and industrialists. It is important to have statistical models that can be used to project future migrants as the projections are vital in decision making purposes. The total monthly migrants (immigrants) of Zimbabwe from 2001 to 2017 are modelled using the Box Jenkins technique. The data for the study was availed by the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT). A time series plot determined the migration trend to Zimbabwe and December is noted as the seasonal month with a significant number of migrants. The parsimonious SARIMA (1, 1, 1)(2,0,1)12 model fitted well to the migration data is validated by the Akaike information criterion (AIC), mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE) and other graphical measures. The model is used to project immigrants for the next 24 months. The projected migrants indicate a slow increase with the month of December being the peak month. The government of Zimbabwe, NGOs, investors and the industrialists should anticipate for an increased population due to an increase in immigrants and plan accordingly

Does peer education go beyond giving reproductive health information? Cohort study in Bulawayo and Mount Darwin, Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVE: Peer education is an intervention within the voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC)-adolescent sexual reproductive health (ASRH) linkages project in Bulawayo and Mount Darwin, Zimbabwe since 2016. Little is known if results extend beyond increasing knowledge. We therefore assessed the extent of and factors affecting referral by peer educators and receipt of HIV testing services (HTS), contraception, management of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and VMMC services by young people (10-24 years) counselled. DESIGN: A cohort study involving all young people counselled by 95 peer educators during October-December 2018, through secondary analysis of routinely collected data. SETTING: All ASRH and VMMC sites in Mt Darwin and Bulawayo. PARTICIPANTS: All young people counselled by 95 peer educators. OUTCOME MEASURES: Censor date for assessing receipt of services was 31 January 2019. Factors (clients' age, gender, marital and schooling status, counselling type, location, and peer educators' age and gender) affecting non-referral and non-receipt of services (dependent variables) were assessed by log-binomial regression. Adjusted relative risks (aRRs) were calculated. RESULTS: Of the 3370 counselled (66% men), 65% were referred for at least one service. 58% of men were referred for VMMC. Other services had 5%-13% referrals. Non-referral for HTS decreased with clients' age (aRR: ~0.9) but was higher among group-counselled (aRR: 1.16). Counselling by men (aRR: 0.77) and rural location (aRR: 0.61) reduced risks of non-referral for VMMC, while age increased it (aRR ≥1.59). Receipt of services was high (64%-80%) except for STI referrals (39%). Group counselling and rural location (aRR: ~0.52) and male peer educators (aRR: 0.76) reduced the risk of non-receipt of VMMC. Rural location increased the risk of non-receipt of contraception (aRR: 3.18) while marriage reduced it (aRR: 0.20). CONCLUSION: We found varying levels of referral ranging from 5.1% (STIs) to 58.3% (VMMC) but high levels of receipt of services. Type of counselling, peer educators' gender and location affected receipt of services. We recommend qualitative approaches to further understand reasons for non-referrals and non-receipt of services

Independent and combined effects of improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, and improved complementary feeding, on child stunting and anaemia in rural Zimbabwe: a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Child stunting reduces survival and impairs neurodevelopment. We tested the independent and combined effects of improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), and improved infant and young child feeding (IYCF) on stunting and anaemia in in Zimbabwe. METHODS: We did a cluster-randomised, community-based, 2 × 2 factorial trial in two rural districts in Zimbabwe. Clusters were defined as the catchment area of between one and four village health workers employed by the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care. Women were eligible for inclusion if they permanently lived in clusters and were confirmed pregnant. Clusters were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to standard of care (52 clusters), IYCF (20 g of a small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplement per day from age 6 to 18 months plus complementary feeding counselling; 53 clusters), WASH (construction of a ventilated improved pit latrine, provision of two handwashing stations, liquid soap, chlorine, and play space plus hygiene counselling; 53 clusters), or IYCF plus WASH (53 clusters). A constrained randomisation technique was used to achieve balance across the groups for 14 variables related to geography, demography, water access, and community-level sanitation coverage. Masking of participants and fieldworkers was not possible. The primary outcomes were infant length-for-age Z score and haemoglobin concentrations at 18 months of age among children born to mothers who were HIV negative during pregnancy. These outcomes were analysed in the intention-to-treat population. We estimated the effects of the interventions by comparing the two IYCF groups with the two non-IYCF groups and the two WASH groups with the two non-WASH groups, except for outcomes that had an important statistical interaction between the interventions. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01824940. FINDINGS: Between Nov 22, 2012, and March 27, 2015, 5280 pregnant women were enrolled from 211 clusters. 3686 children born to HIV-negative mothers were assessed at age 18 months (884 in the standard of care group from 52 clusters, 893 in the IYCF group from 53 clusters, 918 in the WASH group from 53 clusters, and 991 in the IYCF plus WASH group from 51 clusters). In the IYCF intervention groups, the mean length-for-age Z score was 0·16 (95% CI 0·08-0·23) higher and the mean haemoglobin concentration was 2·03 g/L (1·28-2·79) higher than those in the non-IYCF intervention groups. The IYCF intervention reduced the number of stunted children from 620 (35%) of 1792 to 514 (27%) of 1879, and the number of children with anaemia from 245 (13·9%) of 1759 to 193 (10·5%) of 1845. The WASH intervention had no effect on either primary outcome. Neither intervention reduced the prevalence of diarrhoea at 12 or 18 months. No trial-related serious adverse events, and only three trial-related adverse events, were reported. INTERPRETATION: Household-level elementary WASH interventions implemented in rural areas in low-income countries are unlikely to reduce stunting or anaemia and might not reduce diarrhoea. Implementation of these WASH interventions in combination with IYCF interventions is unlikely to reduce stunting or anaemia more than implementation of IYCF alone. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Swiss Development Cooperation, UNICEF, and US National Institutes of Health.The SHINE trial is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1021542 and OPP113707); UK Department for International Development; Wellcome Trust, UK (093768/Z/10/Z, 108065/Z/15/Z and 203905/Z/16/Z); Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation; US National Institutes of Health (2R01HD060338-06); and UNICEF (PCA-2017-0002)

Retention and performance of peer educators and sustainability of HIV prevention services for adolescents in the Zimbabwe Smart-LyncAges project: an ecological study

INTRODUCTION: in 2016, the partner-funded Smart-LyncAges participatory learning project explored the feasibility of a youth-friendly package including incentivized peer educators (PEs) to enhance adolescent sexual and reproductive health (ASRH) and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) linkages. After 12 months of implementation, funding reduction resulted in reduced direct project monitoring and discontinuation of monetary incentives for PEs. We assessed if reduced funding after one year of implementation affected the performance and retention of PEs and uptake of VMMC and HIV testing in ASRH services by adolescents in Bulawayo City (urban) and Mount (Mt) Darwin District (rural) in Zimbabwe. METHODS: our study was an ecological study using routine data collected from March 2016 to February 2017 (intensive support) and March 2017 to February 2018 (reduced support). All the ASRH and VMMC sites in Mt Darwin and Bulawayo were involved. Participants included 58 PEs and all adolescents accessing VMMC and ASRH services. Retention of PEs measured by the submission of monthly reports and uptake of VMMC and HIV testing were the primary outcome measures. RESULTS: the Smart-LyncAges project engaged 58 PEs with 80% aged 20-24 years. Two-thirds were male and 60% were engaged in peer education before the project. Retention of PEs was not negatively affected by funding reduction, with 70% retained up to 11 months after funding reduction. However, their performance, measured by submission of monthly activity reports and the number of adolescents reached with VMMC and HIV messages, declined while uptake of both VMMC and HIV testing was sustained. CONCLUSION: sustained uptake of services was possibly due to heightened awareness of service availability and demand generation in the first year of implementation. Peer-led interventions are effective for health information dissemination. Monetary incentives determine performance, but are not the only reason for retention

Treatment outcomes of multi drug resistant and rifampicin resistant Tuberculosis in Zimbabwe: A cohort analysis of patients initiated on treatment during 2010 to 2015.

BACKGROUND:Zimbabwe is one of the thirty countries globally with a high burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) or rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB). Since 2010, patients diagnosed with MDR/RR-TB are being treated with 20-24 months of standardized second-line drugs (SLDs). The profile, management and factors associated with unfavourable treatment outcomes of MDR/RR TB have not been systematically evaluated in Zimbabwe. OBJECTIVE:To assess treatment outcomes and factors associated with unfavourable outcomes among MDR/RR-TB patients registered and treated under the National Tuberculosis Programme in all the district hospitals and urban healthcare facilities in Zimbabwe between January 2010 and December 2015. METHODS:A cohort study using routinely collected programme data. The 'death', 'loss to follow-up' (LTFU), 'failure' and 'not evaluated' were considered as "unfavourable outcome". A generalized linear model with a log-link and binomial distribution or a Poisson distribution with robust error variances were used to assess factors associated with "unfavourable outcome". The unadjusted and adjusted relative risks were calculated as a measure of association. A value< 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS:Of the 473 patients in the study, the median age was 34 years [interquartile range, 29-42] and 230 (49%) were males. There were 352 (74%) patients co-infected with HIV, of whom 321 (91%) were on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Severe adverse events (SAEs) were recorded in 118 (25%) patients; mostly hearing impairments (70%) and psychosis (11%). Overall, 184 (39%) patients had 'unfavourable' treatment outcomes [125 (26%) were deaths, 39 (8%) were lost to follow-up, 4 (<1%) were failures and 16 (3%) not evaluated]. Being co-infected with HIV but not on ART [adjusted relative risk (aRR) = 2.60; 95% CI: 1.33-5.09] was independently associated with unfavourable treatment outcomes. CONCLUSION:The high unfavourable treatment outcomes among MDR/RR-TB patients on standardized SLDs were coupled with a high occurrence of SAEs in this predominantly HIV co-infected cohort. Switching to individualized all oral shorter treatment regimens should be considered to limit SAEs and improve treatment outcomes. Improving the ART uptake and timeliness of ART initiation can reduce unfavourable outcomes