Prevalence of Relative Poverty in Pakistan

The conceptual basis of poverty in Pakistan remained limited to absolute notion of poverty which has been criticised on the grounds that it minimises the range and depth of human needs. The paper broadens the discussion on poverty and poverty measurement by examining the prevalence of relative poverty in Pakistan. Based on the moderate relative consumption poverty line of Rs 775 per capita per month, the prevalence of relative poverty was at 40.7 percent in 2001-02. On the other hand, half of the population was below the income-based moderate relative poverty line, implying that 77.5 million individuals were poor in Pakistan. At the province level, the results suggest the highest prevalence of urban poverty in the NWFP, followed by Sindh, Balochistan, and Punjab. On the other hand, rural Sindh was the poorest region in the country, followed by the NWFP and Balochistan. The trends implied by the concept of relative poverty suggest a more rapidly increasing trend in relative poverty because of rising income inequality. As a result, gains in income accrued to the richest at the expense of the poorest and the middle income groups, implying that the rich got richer and the poor got poorer over the last 15 year. These results suggest that adverse distributional outcome may be due to the pursuance of stabilisation and adjustment programmes within the framework of the “Washington Consensus” which put too much emphasis on removing macroeconomic imbalances and enhancing economic growth while giving no consideration to equity and poverty. While economic growth alone is not enough for poverty reduction, there is a need to raise PRSP spending in order to pursue an effective poverty reduction strategy with a focus on redistributive policies. While the country has already made a commitment to attain the Millennium Development Goals, economic policies need to be expansionary. Poverty reduction strategy should be based on the policies of building up the assets of the poor and increasing the demand for those assets. An expansion of health and education for the low-income households and measures that increase the relative prices of agricultural commodities and the wages of unskilled labour should be part of new poverty reduction strategy. Focusing on agrarian strategies, especially those also favouring rural industrialisation, can lead to more egalitarian growth. Rapid expansion of labour-intensive exports may contribute to faster growth in employment. Policies to support this should favour labour-intensive techniques, e.g., by not subsidising capital and by securing more credit for small enterprises.

Trends in Inequality in Pakistan between 1998-99 and 2001-02

Although there has been a much debate on poverty in Pakistan in recent time, the discussion on inequality remained limited. Poverty and inequality are closely linked—for a given mean income, the more unequal the income distribution, the larger the percentage of the population living in income poverty. Thus, incomes at the top and in the middle of the distribution may be just as important to us in perceiving and measuring poverty as those at the bottom. It is, thus, important to monitor the whole income distribution rather than merely the bottom of distribution. The issue of income inequality in Pakistan has been important in the policy discussions since the early 1960s. Since then, a number of attempts have been made to estimate the income or expenditure inequality using the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) data. However, a perception of increasing absolute poverty in Pakistan has shifted the focus of studies from inequality (or relative poverty) to absolute poverty. Consequently, a number of attempts have been made by various authors/institutions to estimate the poverty in Pakistan in the 1990s. The debate on trends in poverty during the 1990s—an era of stabilisation and structural adjustment has been wide-ranging in Pakistan. However, there is no discussion on the changes in income distribution from the policy and institutional reforms. World Bank (2003); FBS (2001) and Kemal (2003) are only three exceptions. While the former two studies report Gini Coefficients in their studies on absolute poverty in Pakistan without explaining its variations over time, the latter study is a comprehensive review on the income distribution in Pakistan. It is this context that guided the author to evaluate the trends in inequality in Pakistan using the most recently available household data sets—PIHS 1998-99 and 2001-02. The results for the year 2001-02 are being presented for the first time, which should be useful to

Role of Growth and Inequality in Explaining Changes in Poverty in Pakistan

Changes in the extent of poverty are affected not only by growth in the mean income but also by changes in the distribution of income. The effect of these two factors can be separately measured by decomposing the total change in poverty. In this context, this paper uses new tools to quantify relative contribution of growth and inequality using the latest available household survey data. The findings of this paper suggest that the role of inequality remained important in mitigating the adverse effects of growth on poverty during the first period, 1998-99 to 2001-02. Alternatively, the role of growth has been fundamental in reducing absolute poverty in the second period, 2001-02 to 2004-05. Poverty would have been further reduced, had the distribution not worsened during this period. The policy implication is that while pursuit of growth as a strategy is important for poverty reduction in Pakistan, the contribution of redistribution in favour of the poor should not be ignored if the effect of growth on poverty reduction is to be enhanced. Thus, the major challenge is to pursue a poverty reduction strategy that is based on growth with redistribution.Poverty, Inequality, Economic Growth, Pakistan

Role of Growth and Inequality in Explaining Changes in Poverty in Pakistan

Changes in the extent of poverty are affected not only by growth in the mean income but also by changes in the distribution of income. The effect of these two factors can be separately measured by decomposing the total change in poverty. In this context, this paper uses new tools to quantify relative contribution of growth and inequality using the latest available household survey data. The findings of this paper suggest that the role of inequality remained important in mitigating the adverse effects of growth on poverty during the first period, 1998- 99 to 2001-02. Alternatively, the role of growth has been fundamental in reducing absolute poverty in the second period, 2001-02 to 2004-05. Poverty would have been further reduced, had the distribution not worsened during this period. The policy implication is that while pursuit of growth as a strategy is important for poverty reduction in Pakistan, the contribution of redistribution in favour of the poor should not be ignored if the effect of growth on poverty reduction is to be enhanced. Thus, the major challenge is to pursue a poverty reduction strategy that is based on growth with redistribution. JEL classification: I300, I320, O150, O400 Keywords: Poverty, Inequality, Economic Growth, Pakista

Trends in Absolute Poverty and Governance in Pakistan: 1998-99 and 2004-05

Poverty reduction has been at the centre stage of the policy agenda in Pakistan since the beginning of economic reform in the 1990s. Conversely, poverty indices show that the level of poverty has shown no sign of significant poverty reduction despite numerous policy and institutional initiatives undertaken by the government. The debate on trends in poverty during the 1990s has been wide-ranging in Pakistan. Although there has been a consensus that poverty rose during the 1990s, some controversies emerged on the analysis of poverty based on PSLM 2004-05. The official poverty estimates suggest that poverty declined substantially by 10 percentage points from 34.5 percent in 2001-02 to 23.9 percent in 2004-05. In contrast to this, World Bank (2006) has shown that decline in poverty was by 5 percentage point during the above period

Trends in Inequality in Pakistan between 1998-99 and 2001-02

Although there has been a much debate on poverty in Pakistan in recent time, the discussion on inequality remained limited. Poverty and inequality are closely linked—for a given mean income, the more unequal the income distribution, the larger the percentage of the population living in income poverty. Thus, incomes at the top and in the middle of the distribution may be just as important to us in perceiving and measuring poverty as those at the bottom. It is, thus, important to monitor the whole income distribution rather than merely the bottom of distribution. The issue of income inequality in Pakistan has been important in the policy discussions since the early 1960s. Since then, a number of attempts have been made to estimate the income or expenditure inequality using the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) data. However, a perception of increasing absolute poverty in Pakistan has shifted the focus of studies from inequality (or relative poverty) to absolute poverty. Consequently, a number of attempts have been made by various authors/institutions to estimate the poverty in Pakistan in the 1990s. The debate on trends in poverty during the 1990s—an era of stabilisation and structural adjustment has been wide-ranging in Pakistan. However, there is no discussion on the changes in income distribution from the policy and institutional reforms. World Bank (2003); FBS (2001) and Kemal (2003) are only three exceptions. While the former two studies report Gini Coefficients in their studies on absolute poverty in Pakistan without explaining its variations over time, the latter study is a comprehensive review on the income distribution in Pakistan

Prevalence of Relative Poverty in Pakistan

Much has been written11about poverty in Pakistan. A large number of attempts have been made by various authors/institutions to estimate the poverty in Pakistan over the last four decades. However, the conceptual basis of poverty remained limited to absolute concept of poverty. The concept of absolute poverty emphasises to estimate the cost of purchasing a minimum ‘basket’ of goods required for human survival. In Pakistan, the discussion has been centered on estimating poverty lines consistent with 2550 or 2350 calorie intake per adult per day as minimum requirement. Thus, absolute definitions of poverty tend to be minimalist and are based on subsistence and the attainment of physical efficiency. Subsistence is concerned with the minimum provision needed to maintain health and working capacity

Recent macroeconomic developments and implications for poverty and employment in Pakistan: the cost of foreign exchange reserve holdings in South Asia

After a retarded economic growth over the past few years, a recovery in economic growth rate began as result of faster growth in industrial sector and respectable growth in services sectors. Although macroeconomic stability has been achieved, the reduction in fiscal deficit was also at the expense of public sector development and social sector expenditure over the past few years. While acceleration and pattern of economic growth together with stagnant investment are not pro-poor since sufficient employment is not likely to be created, the recent surge in food inflation will hurt the poor. While economic reform programmes undertaken within the framework of IMF/World Bank over past 15 years were aimed at increasing efficiency and/or reducing poverty, the trends in various dimensions of poverty indicate that absolute poverty and inequality have worsened and progress in human development dimensions remained poor in Pakistan. Another striking development was the substantial improvement in the capital inflows in the form of workers remittances due to the increased scrutiny of undocumented foreign currency transaction after September 11. Since the focus of exchange rate and thus the monetary policy has been on avoiding the appreciation of Pak rupee to preserve export competitiveness, State Bank of Pakistan purchased foreign currency heavily stemming from increased workers remittances resulting in an exceptional rise in foreign exchange reserves. While foreign exchange reserve accumulation is seen as an achievement, maintaining high level of reserves involves a heavy cost. It is worth noting that the costs to poor nations are benefits in terms of low interest loans to the nations that supply reserve currencies primarily the United States. Notably, Pakistan bears the highest annual cost of foreign exchange reserves holdings at 3.3% of GDP (US$2.5 billion) in south Asia followed by India, if compared as percent of GDP. Thus, by diverting resources from more productive uses in order to accumulate high level of foreign exchange reserves both India and Pakistan, have significantly impeded economic and social progress over the past few years. This explains why the poor are not benefiting from the recent macroeconomic gains in south Asia. It must be recognized the foreign exchange reserves are the national savings which a nation acquires through running current account surpluses. If the government utilized the foreign exchange reserves on foreign goods and services for the development of infrastructure in the country, it would not be inflationary. Thus, saving of the nations should be utilized efficiently by investing it in physical infrastructure and human capital which would generate sufficient employment and reduce poverty in south Asia

Trends in Absolute Poverty in Pakistan: 1990-91 and 2001

Poverty, defined comprehensively as absence of options to shape one’s life according to one’s own preferences, comes closer to the concept of human development as presented in UNDP’s Human Development Reports. Absolute poverty, on the contrary, defines poverty in terms of satisfaction of minimum physical needs of food and non-food items to enable people at the lower end of income distribution to engage in economic activity. From the vantage point of the policy-maker concerned with alleviation of poverty, it is crucial to know the magnitude of the existing level of poverty and identify the policy determinants of poverty as well as constraints standing in the way of an effective attack on the worst forms of absolute poverty. In Pakistan, like many other developing countries, poverty has emerged as a core issue on the policy agenda. The traditional measures of poverty—headcount, severity and poverty gap indicate that the incidence of poverty during the previous decade have shown no sign of poverty abatement despite numerous policy and institutional initiatives undertaken by the government. The debate on trends in poverty during the 1990s—an era of stabilisation and structural adjustment has been wide-ranging in Pakistan. However, there is no consensus on the poverty outcomes from the policy and institutional reforms. Primarily due to non-availability of basic data, the last year for which poverty estimates are available is 1998-99. In view of the need to monitor poverty trends and continuously evaluate the efficacy of policies adopted by the government under the poverty reduction strategy, it is important to evolve a consensus on the use of a consistent poverty line, sources of data and data adjustments for measuring poverty. It is this policy context that has guided us to use a consistent definition of poverty line.

Landlessness and Rural Poverty in Pakistan

Although reducing rural poverty has been the key agenda of economic reforms in Pakistan, the rural poverty continued to rise during the 1990s. The causes of rural poverty are complex and multidimensional. The rural poor are quite diverse both in the problems they face, and the possible solutions to these problems are also different. The paper uses the most recent household data set available—PIHS 2001-02—to examine the causes of rural poverty, as to what accounts for its persistence and what policy measures should be taken to alleviate it. Poverty estimates using official poverty line suggest the high prevalence of rural poverty ranging from 39 percent to 48 percent in all provinces. Rural poverty is found to be strongly correlated with lack of asset in rural areas. The unequal land ownership in the country is found to be one of the major causes of rural poverty, as poverty level was the highest among the landless households followed by non-agriculture households. The incidence of landlessness is common in rural areas. About 67 percent households own no land in the country. Unusually, just 0.3 percent households own 55 and above acres of land across the country, suggesting a highly skewed landownership pattern. Gini Coefficient of landholding suggests that Punjab has the most unequal landownership pattern, followed by the NWFP, Sindh, and Balochistan. The highly unequal land distribution seems to have resulted in tenancy arrangements such as sharecropping, resulting in high prevalence of absolute poverty particularly in Sindh. A broad-based land reform programme, including land redistribution and fair and enforceable tenancy contracts together with rural public works programmes and access to credit, is critical to reducing rural poverty in Pakistan.Poverty, Pakistan