Improved Dynamic Predictions from Joint Models of Longitudinal and Survival Data with Time-Varying Effects using P-splines

In the field of cardio-thoracic surgery, valve function is monitored over time after surgery. The motivation for our research comes from a study which includes patients who received a human tissue valve in the aortic position. These patients are followed prospectively over time by standardized echocardiographic assessment of valve function. Loss of follow-up could be caused by valve intervention or the death of the patient. One of the main characteristics of the human valve is that its durability is limited. Therefore, it is of interest to obtain a prognostic model in order for the physicians to scan trends in valve function over time and plan their next intervention, accounting for the characteristics of the data. Several authors have focused on deriving predictions under the standard joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data framework that assumes a constant effect for the coefficient that links the longitudinal and survival outcomes. However, in our case this may be a restrictive assumption. Since the valve degenerates, the association between the biomarker with survival may change over time. To improve dynamic predictions we propose a Bayesian joint model that allows a time-varying coefficient to link the longitudinal and the survival processes, using P-splines. We evaluate the performance of the model in terms of discrimination and calibration, while accounting for censoring

Dynamic Predictions with Time-Dependent Covariates in Survival Analysis using Joint Modeling and Landmarking

A key question in clinical practice is accurate prediction of patient prognosis. To this end, nowadays, physicians have at their disposal a variety of tests and biomarkers to aid them in optimizing medical care. These tests are often performed on a regular basis in order to closely follow the progression of the disease. In this setting it is of medical interest to optimally utilize the recorded information and provide medically-relevant summary measures, such as survival probabilities, that will aid in decision making. In this work we present and compare two statistical techniques that provide dynamically-updated estimates of survival probabilities, namely landmark analysis and joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data. Special attention is given to the functional form linking the longitudinal and event time processes, and to measures of discrimination and calibration in the context of dynamic prediction.Comment: 34 pages, 4 figures. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1303.279

Combining Dynamic Predictions from Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data using Bayesian Model Averaging

The joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is an active area of statistics research that has received a lot of attention in the recent years. More recently, a new and attractive application of this type of models has been to obtain individualized predictions of survival probabilities and/or of future longitudinal responses. The advantageous feature of these predictions is that they are dynamically updated as extra longitudinal responses are collected for the subjects of interest, providing real time risk assessment using all recorded information. The aim of this paper is two-fold. First, to highlight the importance of modeling the association structure between the longitudinal and event time responses that can greatly influence the derived predictions, and second, to illustrate how we can improve the accuracy of the derived predictions by suitably combining joint models with different association structures. The second goal is achieved using Bayesian model averaging, which, in this setting, has the very intriguing feature that the model weights are not fixed but they are rather subject- and time-dependent, implying that at different follow-up times predictions for the same subject may be based on different models

Quality of life after aortic valve repair is similar to Ross patients and superior to mechanical valve replacement: A cross-sectional study

Background: In patients after aortic valve surgery, the quality of life is hypothesized to be influenced by the type of the valve procedure. A cross-sectional study on the postoperative quality of life was carried out in patients after aortic valve-sparing surgery (with regards to the age of the patient), Ross procedure and mechanical aortic valve replacement. Methods: Quality of life was studied in 139 patients after aortic valve surgery divided into four study groups (Y - aortic valve-sparing procedure at the age below 50years, mean age 36.2years; O - aortic valve-sparing procedure at the age 50years and over, mean age 59.2years; R - Ross procedure, mean age 37.8years and M - mechanical aortic valve replacement at the age below 50years, mean age 39.2years). SF-36 Short Form and valve-specific questionnaires were mailed to the patients after 6months or later following surgery (median 26.9months). Results: In SF-36, the younger aortic valve repair patients and the Ross patients scored significantly better in 4 of 4 physical subscales and in 2 of 4 mental subscales than the older aortic valve repair and mechanical valve replacement patients. In the valve-specific questionnaire; however, all 3 groups free of anticoagulation (Y, O, and R) displayed greater freedom from negative valve-related concerns. Conclusions: Postoperative quality of life is influenced by the type of aortic valve procedure and is negatively linked with mechanical prosthesis implantation and long-term anticoagulation. Aortic valve-sparing strategy should be considered in cases with suitable valve morphology due to favorable clinical results and beneficial impact on the long-term quality of life

Evaluation of ear, nose, and throat-screening in liver transplantation candidates:A retrospective cohort study

Background:Patients with end-stage liver disease can be treated with a liver transplantation (LT). Before listing, candidates are subjected to a screening procedure according to the EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines for LT. In our hospital, this includes an ear, nose, and throat (ENT) examination, directed towards the identification of (asymptomatic) infections and head and neck malignancies.Methods:We retrospectively reviewed all ENT screening examinations in LT candidates from 2007 to 2022. The screening consisted of a visit to the ENT outpatient clinic combined with sinus radiography.Results:ENT screening was performed in 1099 patients. Sixty-one cases were identified, either diagnosed with an infection (n = 58, almost exclusively sinusitis) or a neoplasm (n = 3, of which two malignancies). With binary logistic regression, we could not identify significant risk factors for diagnosing sinusitis. 711 patients underwent LT. After LT, two patients developed a novel malignancy of the head and neck area, while 14 patients were diagnosed with sinusitis, two of the latter already showed opacification on sinus radiography during screening. Despite immunosuppressive drugs, no complicated sinusitis was observed.Conclusion:Sinusitis or a neoplasm was diagnosed in almost 6% in a large cohort of LT candidates. Although almost a third of sinusitis patients were not treated accordingly, we did not observe any complicated sinusitis after LT. A more conservative approach to sinusitis may therefore be justified in LT candidates, especially in asymptomatic cases. At our institution, we aim to refer only those patients with specific ENT complaintsimage.This study aimed to evaluate the outcome of routine ear, nose, and throat screening in a large cohort of liver transplantation candidates. Note that, 6% were diagnosed with either sinusitis or a neoplasm. We did not observe any complicated sinusitis after transplantation. A more conservative approach may therefore be justified, especially in asymptomatic cases.imag

Totally biological composite aortic stentless valved conduit for aortic root replacement: 10-year experience

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>To retrospectively analyze the clinical outcome of a totally biological composite stentless aortic valved conduit (No-React^®BioConduit) implanted using the Bentall procedure over ten years in a single centre.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Between 27/10/99 and 19/01/08, the No-React^®BioConduit composite graft was implanted in 67 patients. Data on these patients were collected from the in-hospital database, from patient notes and from questionnaires. A cohort of patients had 2D-echocardiogram with an average of 4.3 ± 0.45 years post-operatively to evaluate valve function, calcification, and the diameter of the conduit.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Implantation in 67 patients represented a follow-up of 371.3 patient-year. Males were 60% of the operated population, with a mean age of 67.9 ± 1.3 years (range 34.1-83.8 years), 21 of them below the age of 65. After a mean follow-up of 7.1 ± 0.3 years (range of 2.2-10.5 years), more than 50% of the survivors were in NYHA I/II and more than 60% of the survivors were angina-free (CCS 0). The overall 10-year survival following replacement of the aortic valve and root was 51%. During this period, 88% of patients were free from valved-conduit related complications leading to mortality. Post-operative echocardiography studies showed no evidence of stenosis, dilatation, calcification or thrombosis. Importantly, during the 10-year follow-up period no failures of the valved conduit were reported, suggesting that the tissue of the conduit does not structurally change (histology of one explant showed normal cusp and conduit).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The No-React^®BioConduit composite stentless aortic valved conduit provides excellent long-term clinical results for aortic root replacement with few prosthesis-related complications in the first post-operative decade.</p

Evaluation of ear, nose, and throat-screening in liver transplantation candidates:A retrospective cohort study

Background:Patients with end-stage liver disease can be treated with a liver transplantation (LT). Before listing, candidates are subjected to a screening procedure according to the EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines for LT. In our hospital, this includes an ear, nose, and throat (ENT) examination, directed towards the identification of (asymptomatic) infections and head and neck malignancies.Methods:We retrospectively reviewed all ENT screening examinations in LT candidates from 2007 to 2022. The screening consisted of a visit to the ENT outpatient clinic combined with sinus radiography.Results:ENT screening was performed in 1099 patients. Sixty-one cases were identified, either diagnosed with an infection (n = 58, almost exclusively sinusitis) or a neoplasm (n = 3, of which two malignancies). With binary logistic regression, we could not identify significant risk factors for diagnosing sinusitis. 711 patients underwent LT. After LT, two patients developed a novel malignancy of the head and neck area, while 14 patients were diagnosed with sinusitis, two of the latter already showed opacification on sinus radiography during screening. Despite immunosuppressive drugs, no complicated sinusitis was observed.Conclusion:Sinusitis or a neoplasm was diagnosed in almost 6% in a large cohort of LT candidates. Although almost a third of sinusitis patients were not treated accordingly, we did not observe any complicated sinusitis after LT. A more conservative approach to sinusitis may therefore be justified in LT candidates, especially in asymptomatic cases. At our institution, we aim to refer only those patients with specific ENT complaintsimage.This study aimed to evaluate the outcome of routine ear, nose, and throat screening in a large cohort of liver transplantation candidates. Note that, 6% were diagnosed with either sinusitis or a neoplasm. We did not observe any complicated sinusitis after transplantation. A more conservative approach may therefore be justified, especially in asymptomatic cases.imag

Cardiologist and cardiac surgeon view on decision-making in prosthetic aortic valve selection: does profession matter?

Cardiolog