Statistical Modelling and Prediction of Rainfall Time Series Data

Climate and rainfall are highly non-linear and complicated phenomena, which require classical, modern and detailed models to obtain accurate prediction. In order to attain precise forecast, a modern method termed fuzzy time series that belongs to the first order and time-variant method was used to analyse rainfall since it has become an attractive alternative to traditional and non-parametric statistical methods. In this paper, we present tools for modelling and predicting the behavioural pattern in rainfall phenomena based on past observations. The paper introduces three fundamentally different approaches for designing a model, the statistical method based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), the emerging fuzzy time series(FST) model and the non-parametric method(Theil2019;s regression). In order to evaluate the prediction efficiency, we made use of 31 years of annual rainfall data from year 1982 to 2012 of Ibadan South West, Nigeria. The fuzzy time series model has it universe of discourse divided into 13 intervals and the interval with the largest number of rainfall data is divided into 4 sub-intervals of equal length. Three rules were used to determine if the forecast value under FST is upward 0.752013;point, middle or downward 0.25-point. ARIMA (1, 2, 1) was used to derive the weights and the regression coefficients, while the theil2019;s regression was used to fit a linear model. The performance of the model was evaluated using mean squared forecast error (MAE), root mean square forecast error (RMSE) and Coefficient of determination ( . The study reveals that FTS model can be used as an appropriate forecasting tool to predict the rainfall, since it outperforms the ARIMA and Theil2019;s models

Time series model building with Fourier autoregressive model

This paper presents time series model building using Fourier autoregressive models. This model is capable of modelling and forecasting time series data that exhibit periodic and seasonal movements. From the implementation of the model, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(3) models were chosen based on the periodic autocorrelation function (PeACF) and periodic partial autocorrelation function. The coefficients of the tentative modelwere estimated using a discrete Fourier transform estimation method. The FAR(1) model was chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest value of periodic Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, and the residuals of the fitted models were diagnosed to be white noise using the periodic residual autocorrelation function. The out-sample forecasts were obtained for the Nigerian monthly rainfall series from January 2018 to December 2019 using the FAR(1) and SARIMA(1,1,1)x(1,1,1)₁₂ models. The results exhibited a continuous periodic and seasonal movement but the periodic movement in the forecasted rainfall series was better with FAR(1) because its values showed a close reflection of the original series. The values of the forecast evaluation for both models showed that the forecast was consistent and accurate but the FAR(1) model forecast was more accurate since its forecast evaluation values were relatively lower. Hence, the Fourier autoregressive model is adequate and suitable for modelling and forecasting periodicity and seasonality in Nigerian rainfall time series data and any part of the world with rainfall series that are mostly characterised with periodic variation

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON MALARIA PREVALENCE

 Malaria is believed to be one of the deadly killers of humans worldwide and a threatto one-third of the world’s population. Based on this assertion, this study is used to determine the effect of Ibadan climatic variability on Ibadan malaria prevalence proportion since the city has a holoendemic malaria transmission. Multiple Trigonometric regression model was used to determine the effects of rainfall and temperature on Ibadan malaria prevalence since it can be used to model series that exhibit two or more types of variations simultaneously. From the results, the residuals of the fitted multiple trigonometric regression model are not serially correlated based on the value of the Durbin Watson Statistics. The coefficients of the fitted model were used to establish that for every unit increase or decrease in Ibadan city rainfall and temperature, there might be an increase or decrease in the malaria prevalence proportion over the years. The values of coefficient of determination  revealed that Ibadan city monthly rainfall and temperature jointly explained the variations in Ibadan malaria prevalence proportion up to 61%. The fitted multiple trigonometric regression model as well as a good fit and high predictive power based on the value of the adjusted coefficient of determination Based on these results Multiple trigonometric regression model is suitable and adequate for modelling the effect of Ibadan monthly climatic variability on malaria prevalence proportion which can cause a high rate of morbidity and mortality if not curtailed or curbed

Hepatotoxicity of Aqueous Leaf Extract of Bridelia ferruginea on the Liver of Albino Rats

The hepatic effect of aqueous extract of Bridelia ferruginea leaves on the liver of albino rats (Rattus norvegicus) was investigated. The rats were fed with their feed (pellets) and clean water and were left for a period of four weeks to acclimatize to their new environment and thereafter the experiment commenced. The rats were grouped into four groups; the control group which did not receive the extract at all and three other groups according to dose of extracts administered orally. There was a steady increase in weight in both control and treated group in the treated group. The alanine aminotransferase (ALT) concentration was a mean value of  10.4 +1.0U/I for the control group while the treated groups were 38.1 + 3.8U/I, 57.7 + 19.3U/I, and 77.6 + 6.0U/I (at the doses of 50, 100, 150 and 200mg/kg weight/day) respectively. The aspartate aminotransferase (AST) concentration had a mean value of 11.5 + 0.5U/I for the control group and 45.6 + 1.3U/I , 44.6 + 4.1U,  41.5 + 2.4U/I  and 50.5+3.3 UI (at the doses of 50, 100, 150 and 200mg/kg weight/day).The transaminases (AST and ALT) are well known enzymes used as biomarkers to predict possible toxicity to the liver. Possible damage to liver cells resulted in elevation of both these transaminases in the serum. Furthermore, measurement of enzymatic activities of AST and ALT is of clinical and toxicological importance as changes in their activities are indicative of liver damage by toxicants or in diseased condition. Histological section of the control group had a normal architecture were the central veins,portal traits hepatocytes and sinusoids appear normal. The lobula unit is also well define. However, group rats treated with 50mg/kg/bw and 100mg/kg/bw showed disintegration of the hepartic cells represented by the separation and disruption of these cells in the tissue with karyolitic nuclei. Also, in rats group treated with 150mg/kg/bw showed extensive area of patchy and confluent hepatocyte necrosis and lobular inflammation Keywords: Hepatotoxicity, Bridelia ferruginea,Albino rat

Measurement of penile size in healthy Nigerian newborns using conventional penile length measurement technique

Objectives We attempted to establish a standard penile length for male newborn Nigerians using the conventional penile length measurement technique.Summary Defining the normal penile size in the neonate is paramount to making accurate diagnosis of abnormalities of the penis and the medical and surgical management of these anomalies.Patients and methods We carried out a prospective cross-sectional study of all term male neonates within 72 h of birth from April 2013 to March 2014 in the three largest obstetric centres (University College Hospital, Adeoyo Maternity Hospital and Our Lady of Apostles Catholic Hospital) in Ibadan, Nigeria. They underwent clinical examination, and their penile sizes were measured using the conventional penile length measurement technique.Results A total of 675 male Nigerian newborns were studied. The mean penile length was 3.14 ±0.65 cm, and the mean penile width was 0.97± 0.15 cm.Conclusion The penile dimensions obtained are comparable with reported values in previous studies in other parts of the world

In-silico identification of differentially expressed genes in Type 1 diabetes mellitus

The incidence of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus T1DM varies markedly in different geographical populations but seems to be increasing globally. The focus of this research is to screen for T1D-associated differentially expressed genes (DEGs). A meta-analysis was conducted using the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) datasets. The datasets included samples from T1DM and normal patients. The Robust Multichip Averaging (RMA) procedure was used for background correction, normalization and summarization to obtain expression level data and to discover differentially expressed genes. Box plots, Density plots, RNA degradation plots and recommended procedures from Affymetrix for quality control were implemented. The DEGs were screened and the exclusively expressed genes were uncovered through the Venn diagrams and heat maps functions in R language. 3,824 genes were classified, as DEGs of which 2,030 were upregulated and 1,794 were downregulated. Seven key genes (TLN1, ANPEP, F13A1, SPARC, SPTBN1, IGHA2 and IGHA1) were exclusively expressed in the whole progression. 58 DEGs were revealed through the Venn diagrams while the Heatmaps showed the differential expression data for 35 genes. IGHA1, IGHA2, IGKV4-1 were significantly expressed and upregulated. Although some of these genes have been previously associated with T1D, many other genes were identified for further studies

PREDICTING PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION USING TRIGONOMETRIC REGRESSION MODEL

This study is used to model and forecast Nigerian motor gasoline consumption using the Trigonometric Regression model which has the capabilities of handling nonlinear time series. The time plot of Nigerian motor gasoline consumption showed the series is nonlinear. The Trigonometric regression model was estimated using the Ordinary Least Square method. From the result, the coefficients of the model influenced Nigerian motor gasoline consumption and a unit increase may lead to an increase or decrease. The values of coefficient of determination (R^2) revealed that the coefficients of the model explained the variations in Nigerian motor gasoline consumption up to 83%. The value of the adjusted coefficient of determination (R ̅^2 ) also revealed that the model is a good fit and has high predictive power. Therefore, the Nigerian motor gasoline consumption forecast from 1980 to 2038 indicated continuous fluctuations from year to year. The shape of the out-sample forecast from 2019 to 2038 exhibited a bell shape. Conclusively, based on the results obtained, the proposed model can be used to obtain future values for Nigerian motor gasoline consumption. This will enhance the Government and shareholders to put in place proper plans and logistics to curtail the challenges that may arise from Nigerian motor gasoline consumption and distribution presently and in the future

Septic arthritis of the hip with intraperitoneal dislocation of the femoral head

Septic arthritis is a potentially crippling infection of the joint cavity. Malnutrition in the setting of poor socioeconomic background is a known predisposing and propagating factor of septic arthritis. Prolonged untreated septic arthritis of the hip joint can be a rare cause of acute abdomen, this is due to the proximity of the hip joint to the pelvis causing the spread of the causative organisms into the peritoneal cavity. We present a case of septic arthritis of the hip joint presenting as acute abdomen with intra-peritoneal dislocation of the head of the femur, and reviewed relevant literature. Keywords: acute abdomen; septic arthritis; peritonitis; fracture dislocation

Effect of Plant Population Density on Growth and Weed Smothering Ability of Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.)

Akidi (cowpea), a landrace of Vigna unguiculata, was grown at densities of 30,121 (D1), 40,323 (D2), 50,000 (D3), 60,976 (D4), 80,645 (D5), and 0 (D6) plants/hectare in a randomized complete block design to assess the effect of intraspecific (between cowpeas) on its performance and weed smothering ability in the instance of utilizing it in intensive fallow management. At 10 weeks after sowing (WAS), the low-density plants (D1) were shorter (127.55 ± 1.84cm), produced highest stem diameter of 11.59 ± 0.86mm, and shoot dry weight/plant (12.46 ± 0.70g). The high-density cowpea treatment (D5) had the longest vines (197.93 ± 1.54cm) and relatively low shoot dry weight/plant (9.22 ± 0.64g). The D5 treatment was significantly better than other treatments in weed control and dry matter yield per unit area. Tithonia diversifolia and Sida acuta which are heliophytes were encountered in low-density treatments of D1 and D3, where the highest light intensities reached the soil

Competence-driven engineering education: A case for T-shaped engineers and teachers

The demand for engineering education and graduates is increasing daily because the current service and technological designs are unable to meet the needs of the society and the expected dramatic increase in the future. The emerging skill gap requires a shift in the type of expertise required of young professionals that will be needed to successfully lead organizations in the new economy. Researchers have identified various ‘shapes’ for the engineering professionals to make them relevant to the 21st century challenge, especially in the industry where their expertise is much needed. T-shaped professionals have skills that make them to be more preferred among others. The purpose of this paper is to present the need to upgrade engineering education curriculum to produce more T-shaped graduate engineers required in the changing industrial world. The potential benefits of T-shaped professionals to organizational performance are quite significant; hence, the demand for T-shaped professionals in knowledge-intensive, service-oriented economies is increasing. Unfortunately, the challenges associated with creating more T-shaped professionals are also significant. National regulatory bodies for engineering education in Nigeria are beginning to move towards integrated curriculum to break down discipline silos and produce T-shaped graduate engineers for the fast-changing industrial world. Service Science Management and Engineering (SSME) is an emerging discipline with over 250 programmes in 50 nations seeking to create more T-shaped professionals