The Cause of the Great Inflation: Interactions between the Government and the Monetary Policymakers

The paper offers a new explanation for the cause of the Great Inflation by constructing a model that explicitly separates the roles of government and monetary policymakers. A mechanism that inflation can accelerate even if an inflation target is low is uncovered. The model solves the puzzle of the observed high inflation target during the Great Inflation and indicates that the policy errors at the time were not solely attributed to the monetary policymakers but made in the process of interaction between the governments and the monetary policymakers. The model is consistent with the international aspect of the Great Inflation.The Great Inflation; Inflation; Persistence; Monetary policy

Endogenous Growth Models in Open Economies: A Possibility of Permanent Current Account Deficits

The paper explores the impacts of heterogeneity in degree of relative risk aversion on the balance on current account in a two-country endogenous growth model. It concludes that, like the heterogeneity of demographic changes, the heterogeneity in degree of relative risk aversion generates persisting current account deficits. The deficit continues permanently, but its ratio to output stabilizes. With evidence that the degree of relative risk aversion in Japan is relatively higher than that in the U.S., there is a possibility that the persisting bilateral trade deficit of the U.S. with Japan is partially generated by this mechanism.Current account; Trade deficits; Capital flows; Endogenous growth; Risk aversion

A More Realistic Endogenous Time Preference Model and the Slump in Japan

This paper presents a more realistic endogenous time preference model, incorporating the property that impatience decreases as consumption increases. The model overcomes a serious drawback of the existing model, which needs the assumption of increasing impatience. The new model is applied to the Japanese economy, which has been mired in a persistent slump since the early 1990s, and the hypothesis that a time preference rate shift is the main cause of the slump is explored. The estimated time preference rate clearly shows that an upward time preference shift of about 2% occurred in Japan.Time preference, Uncertainty, Japanese economy, Business fluctuations