Protectionist Responses to the Crisis: Global Trends and Implications

In this paper we take a systematic look at recent trends in global protectionism and at the potential implications of a protectionist backlash for economic growth, using results from the recent economic literature and new model simulations. We find that there has so far been a moderate increase in actual protectionist measures to restrict trade through tariff and non-tariff barriers. At the same time, evidence from surveys shows that public pressure for more economic protection has been mounting since the mid-2000s, and has possibly intensified since the start of the financial crisis. However, no World Trade Organization (WTO) member has retreated into widespread trade restrictions or protectionism to date. Our model-based simulations suggest that the impairment of the global flow of trade would hamper the recovery from the crisis, as well as the long-term growth of the global economy. At the same time, it is unlikely that protectionism would help to correct existing current account imbalances. Moreover, the countries implementing protectionist measures should expect a deterioration of their international competitiveness, which would further affect the potential for longer-term real GDP growth.Protectionism ; trade ; financial crisis ; competitiveness ; World Trade Organization ; global imbalances.

Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil.

The unprecedented drop in international trade during the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 has mostly been analysed at the macroeconomic or sectoral level. However, heterogeneous exporters in terms of productivity, size or external finance dependence should be hit differently by the crisis. This issue is examined here using data on monthly exports at the product and destination level for some 100,000 individual French exporters, up to 2009M4. We show that the drop in French exports is mainly due to the intensive margin of large exporters. Small and large firms are evenly affected when sectoral and geographical specialisations are controlled for. Lastly, firms (small and large) in sectors structurally more dependent on external finance are the most affected by the crisis.Financial crisis , international trade , firms heterogeneity , intensive and extensive margins.

Preliaminary Evaluation of a Radioactive Waste Repository Safety Performance by a Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Reliability Model

International audienceDisposal facilities are designed to provide long-term isolation of the wastes from the human environment by means of a system of barriers, both engineered and natural. In this regard, it is required that the containment function of the multi-barrier system be evaluated by a quantitative risk analysis procedure, also called performance assessment. This entails the implementation of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment model for representing the stochastic failure behavior of the repository barriers, estimating the release rates of radionuclides into the groundwater stream and the doses from subsequent ingestion of drinking water. To this aim, a Monte Carlo simulation scheme is provided within a reliability modelling approach for the safety performance analysis of a repository, accounting also for barrier degradation processes. An application to a case study of the literature is presented to validate the approach and demonstrate its simplicity and flexibility