Asynchronous Carbon Sink Saturation in African and Amazonian Tropical Forests

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered ~50% of global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing ~15% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions(1-3). Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest ‘carbon sink’ will continue for decades(4,5). Here, we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, we compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 (95% CI:0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests(6). Thus, the carbon sink responses of Earth’s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric CO2 and air temperature(7-9). Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our data suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including CO2, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, while the Amazonian sink continues to rapidly weaken. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth’s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern hemisphere landmass(10) reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already saturated. This tropical forest sink saturation and ongoing decline has consequences for policies to stabilise Earth’s climate

MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields tree cover needs calibrating in tropical savannas

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Fields (MODIS VCF) Earth observation product is widely used to estimate forest cover changes and to parameterize vegetation and Earth system models and as a reference for validation or calibration where field data are limited. However, although limited independent validations of MODIS VCF have shown that MODIS VCF's accuracy decreases when estimating tree cover in sparsely vegetated areas such as tropical savannas, no study has yet assessed the impact this may have on the VCF-based tree cover data used by many in their research. Using tropical forest and savanna inventory data collected by the Tropical Biomes in Transition (TROBIT) project, we produce a series of calibration scenarios that take into account (i) the spatial disparity between the in situ plot size and the MODIS VCF pixel and (ii) the trees' spatial distribution within in situ plots. To identify if a disparity also exists in products trained using VCF, we used a similar approach to evaluate the finer-scale Landsat Tree Canopy Cover (TCC) product. For MODIS VCF, we then applied our calibrations to areas identified as forest or savanna in the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) land cover mapping product. All IGBP classes identified as “savanna” show substantial increases in cover after calibration, indicating that the most recent version of MODIS VCF consistently underestimates woody cover in tropical savannas. We also found that these biases are propagated in the finer-scale Landsat TCC. Our scenarios suggest that MODIS VCF accuracy can vary substantially, with tree cover underestimation ranging from 0 % to 29 %. Models that use MODIS VCF as their benchmark could therefore be underestimating the carbon uptake in forest–savanna areas and misrepresenting forest–savanna dynamics. Because of the limited in situ plot number, our results are designed to be used as an indicator of where the product is potentially more or less reliable. Until more in situ data are available to produce more accurate calibrations, we recommend caution when using uncalibrated MODIS VCF data in tropical savannas

Biome-specific effects of nitrogen and phosphorus on the photosynthetic characteristics of trees at a forest-savanna boundary in Cameroon

Photosynthesis/nutrient relationships of proximally growing forest and savanna trees were determined in an ecotonal region of Cameroon (Africa). Although area-based foliar N concentrations were typically lower for savanna trees, there was no difference in photosynthetic rates between the two vegetation formation types. Opposite to N, area-based P concentrations were—on average—slightly lower for forest trees; a dependency of photosynthetic characteristics on foliar P was only evident for savanna trees. Thus savanna trees use N more efficiently than their forest counterparts, but only in the presence of relatively high foliar P. Along with some other recent studies, these results suggest that both N and P are important modulators of woody tropical plant photosynthetic capacities, influencing photosynthetic metabolism in different ways that are also biome specific. Attempts to find simple unifying equations to describe woody tropical vegetation photosynthesis-nutrient relationships are likely to meet with failure, with ecophysiological distinctions between forest and savanna requiring acknowledgement