Caractérisation des périodes de sécheresse sur le domaine de l'Afrique simulée par le Modèle Régional Canadien du Climat (MRCC5)

Les conséquences des changements climatiques sur la fréquence ainsi que sur l'intensité des précipitations auront un impact direct sur les périodes de sécheresse et par conséquent sur différents secteurs économiques tels que le secteur de l'agriculture. Ainsi, dans cette étude, l'habilité du Modèle Régional Canadien du Climat (MRCC5) à simuler les différentes caractéristiques des périodes de sécheresse est évaluée pour 4 seuils de précipitation soit 0.5 mm, 1 mm, 2 mm et 3 mm. Ces caractéristiques incluent le nombre de jours secs, le nombre de périodes de sécheresse ainsi que le maximum de jours consécutifs sans précipitation associé à une récurrence de 5 ans. Les résultats sont présentés pour des moyennes annuelles et saisonnières. L'erreur de performance est évaluée en comparant le MRCC5 piloté par ERA-Interim aux données d'analyses du GPCP pour le climat présent (1997-2008). L'erreur due aux conditions aux frontières c'est-à-dire les erreurs de pilotage du MRCC5, soit par CanESM2 et par ERA-Interim ainsi que l'évaluation de la valeur ajoutée du MRCC5 face au CanESM2 sont également analysées. L'analyse de ces caractéristiques est également faite dans un contexte de climat changeant pour deux périodes futures, soit 2041-2070 et 2071-2100 à l'aide du MRCC5 piloté par le modèle de circulation générale CanESM2 de même que par le modèle CanESM2 sous le scénario RCP 4.5. Les résultats suggèrent que le MRCC5 piloté par ERA-Interim a tendance à surestimer la moyenne annuelle du nombre de jours secs ainsi que le maximum de jours consécutifs sans précipitation associé à une récurrence de 5 ans dans la plupart des régions de l'Afrique et une tendance à sous-estimer le nombre de périodes de sécheresse. En général, l'erreur de performance est plus importante que l'erreur due aux conditions aux frontières pour les différentes caractéristiques de périodes de sécheresse. Pour les régions équatoriales, les changements appréhendés par le MRCC5 piloté par CanESM2 pour les différentes caractéristiques de périodes de sécheresse et pour deux périodes futures (2041-2070 et 2071-2100), suggèrent une augmentation significatives du nombre de jours secs ainsi que du maximum de jours consécutifs sans précipitation associé à une récurrence de 5 ans. Une diminution significative du nombre de périodes de sécheresse est aussi prévue.\ud ______________________________________________________________________________ \ud MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : Modèle Régional du Climat, Changement climatique, Jours secs, Nombre de périodes de sécheresse, Événement de faible récurrence, Afriqu

Mild Cryotherapy for Prevention of Paclitaxel-Induced Nail Toxicity in Breast Cancer Patients: A Phase II Single-Arm Clinical Trial

Background: Nail changes are among the most common dermatological adverse events in paclitaxel-receiving patients. Although effective, low-temperature prophylactic cryotherapy is discomforting and a potential cause of side effects, resulting in low patients’ adherence. Patients and Methods: A phase II single-arm study evaluating mild cryotherapy for the reduction of 12-week, grade 2 nail toxicity was conducted on 67 taxane-naïve breast cancer patients (age 18-74 years) undergoing weekly adjuvant chemotherapy with paclitaxel. Instant-ice packs were fixed over the fingers and toes for a total of 70 minutes during paclitaxel infusion at a temperature between -5 °C and +5 °C. Nail toxicity was evaluated weekly (CTCAE vs 4.03), including grade 2 (ie, onycholysis, subungual hematoma, onychomadesis) and grade 1 nail toxicities. Results: Twelve patients experienced grade 2 nail toxicities (17.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 9.6%-29.2%; median time to onset: 56 days): onycholysis was the most frequent grade 2 toxicity (13.4%), followed by subungual hematoma (9.0%) and onychomadesis (1.5%). Grade 1 toxicity occurred in 33 patients (63.5%, 95% CI 49.0%-76.4%) with nail discoloration representing by far the most frequent toxicity (59.6%). Seventeen patients (25.4%) reported no nail toxicity. 62.7% of patients reported no pain and 22.4% suffered moderate pain. No patient experienced severe pain or others adverse effects. Conclusions: Instant-ice pack is a feasible prophylactic intervention for nail toxicity, well tolerated by patients and with limited impact on routine workload. It could be considered for patients refusing (or interrupting) cryotherapy, and it can be implemented when frozen gloves management is not feasible

Analysis of the National System of Innovation in Nigeria: context and emerging trends

Working paper, Apri

Knowledge for developent: university-firm interaction in sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Uganda: working papers

AugustThe Research on Knowledge Systems (RoKS) 2006 competition provided funding that has opened up a new field and delineated the contours of a research agenda in relation to the changing role of the university in sub-Saharan Africa. Governments in developing countries are increasingly imitating developed countries, by adopting policy, incentives and programmes aimed to promote linkages between universities and firms. In sub-Saharan Africa, with the largest number of low-income countries, there is evidence to suggest that policy-borrowing to promote university-industry linkages is occurring, but in a manner that does not take sufficient cognizance of the specifics of the local context and conditions, which may have unintended deleterious consequences. There is as yet not a great deal of research on the changing role of universities, but what does exist often engages with the challenges in aspirational and normative ways. There has been little systematic analysis of the conditions of universities, firms and their potential for interaction to contribute to growth and development in the low income countries of sub-Saharan Africa. Such concerns inspired a study to examine systematically how university-firm interaction contributes to national development goals in three countries at different stages of development in sub-Saharan Africa, namely Nigeria, Uganda and South Africa. The study was also conducted in nine other countries, in Latin America (Brazil, Costa Rica, Argentina and Mexico) and Asia (Korea, China, India, Malaysia and Thailand), providing a basis for systematic comparative work across countries of the South

Interactions between universities and firms: results of the survey of Nigerian manufacturing firms

Working paper, Apri

Knowledge for development: university-firm interaction in sub-Saharan Africa: final report

Augus

Knowledge for development: university-firm interaction in sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Nigeria: working papers

AugustThe Research on Knowledge Systems (RoKS) 2006 competition provided funding that has opened up a new field and delineated the contours of a research agenda in relation to the changing role of the university in sub-Saharan Africa. Governments in developing countries are increasingly imitating developed countries, by adopting policy, incentives and programmes aimed to promote linkages between universities and firms. In sub-Saharan Africa, with the largest number of low-income countries, there is evidence to suggest that policy-borrowing to promote university-industry linkages is occurring, but in a manner that does not take sufficient cognizance of the specifics of the local context and conditions, which may have unintended deleterious consequences. There is as yet not a great deal of research on the changing role of universities, but what does exist often engages with the challenges in aspirational and normative ways. There has been little systematic analysis of the conditions of universities, firms and their potential for interaction to contribute to growth and development in the low income countries of sub-Saharan Africa. Such concerns inspired a study to examine systematically how university-firm interaction contributes to national development goals in three countries at different stages of development in sub-Saharan Africa, namely Nigeria, Uganda and South Africa. The study was also conducted in nine other countries, in Latin America (Brazil, Costa Rica, Argentina and Mexico) and Asia (Korea, China, India, Malaysia and Thailand), providing a basis for systematic comparative work across countries of the South

Contextual policy framework for developing a National System of Innovation in Uganda

Working paper, Apri

Uganda's 2006 Presidental and Parliamentary Elections

This report analyses the 2006 Ugandan presidential and parliamentary election in terms of the broader process starting with the processes of setting the rule for political contestation, through the registration of voters and parties, the nomination of parties and candidates, the campaign, the voting, counting and tallying and finally, the handling of election complaints. The report examines four central institutions charged with ensuring an impartial and fair electoral process: the institutions comprising the electoral channel, the party system, parliament, and the judiciary. These four institutions are interdependent but also partly autonomous from each other. Understanding how they operate and interact is necessary in order to grasp the degree of democratic institutionalisation. The quality and impartiality of the electoral administration are key to whether an election is seen as a legitimate process for delegation of authority from citizens to representatives. In new democracies the organisation of the electoral process is often characterised by ambiguous rules and problems associated with enforcement of the rules. The political party has become a most significant actor in electoral processes and democratic governance. Parties also serve to link citizens with parliament, which represents the citizens in setting the rules of the electoral game, influencing policy decisions and acting as an institutional check on executive power. The judiciary is the ultimate interpreter of the constitutional and legal rules. The report shows how problems and irregularities at various stages of the election cycle tilted the playing field in favour of the incumbent and compromised the integrity of the 2006 elections