Estimating the Location and Spatial Extent of a Covert Anthrax Release

Rapidly identifying the features of a covert release of an agent such as anthrax could help to inform the planning of public health mitigation strategies. Previous studies have sought to estimate the time and size of a bioterror attack based on the symptomatic onset dates of early cases. We extend the scope of these methods by proposing a method for characterizing the time, strength, and also the location of an aerosolized pathogen release. A back-calculation method is developed allowing the characterization of the release based on the data on the first few observed cases of the subsequent outbreak, meteorological data, population densities, and data on population travel patterns. We evaluate this method on small simulated anthrax outbreaks (about 25–35 cases) and show that it could date and localize a release after a few cases have been observed, although misspecifications of the spore dispersion model, or the within-host dynamics model, on which the method relies can bias the estimates. Our method could also provide an estimate of the outbreak's geographical extent and, as a consequence, could help to identify populations at risk and, therefore, requiring prophylactic treatment. Our analysis demonstrates that while estimates based on the first ten or 15 observed cases were more accurate and less sensitive to model misspecifications than those based on five cases, overall mortality is minimized by targeting prophylactic treatment early on the basis of estimates made using data on the first five cases. The method we propose could provide early estimates of the time, strength, and location of an aerosolized anthrax release and the geographical extent of the subsequent outbreak. In addition, estimates of release features could be used to parameterize more detailed models allowing the simulation of control strategies and intervention logistics

A case of septicaemic anthrax in an intravenous drug user

<p><b>Background:</b> In 2000, Ringertz et al described the first case of systemic anthrax caused by injecting heroin contaminated with anthrax. In 2008, there were 574 drug related deaths in Scotland, of which 336 were associated with heroin and or morphine. We report a rare case of septicaemic anthrax caused by injecting heroin contaminated with anthrax in Scotland.</p> <p><b>Case Presentation:</b> A 32 year old intravenous drug user (IVDU), presented with a 12 hour history of increasing purulent discharge from a chronic sinus in his left groin. He had a tachycardia, pyrexia, leukocytosis and an elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). He was treated with Vancomycin, Clindamycin, Ciprofloxacin, Gentamicin and Metronidazole. Blood cultures grew Bacillus anthracis within 24 hours of presentation. He had a computed tomography (CT) scan and magnetic resonance imagining (MRI) of his abdomen, pelvis and thighs performed. These showed inflammatory change relating to the iliopsoas and an area of necrosis in the adductor magnus.</p> <p>He underwent an exploration of his left thigh. This revealed chronically indurated subcutaneous tissues with no evidence of a collection or necrotic muscle. Treatment with Vancomycin, Ciprofloxacin and Clindamycin continued for 14 days. Negative Pressure Wound Therapy (NPWT) device was applied utilising the Venturi™ wound sealing kit. Following 4 weeks of treatment, the wound dimensions had reduced by 77%.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> Although systemic anthrax infection is rare, it should be considered when faced with severe cutaneous infection in IVDU patients. This case shows that patients with significant bacteraemia may present with no signs of haemodynamic compromise. Prompt recognition and treatment with high dose IV antimicrobial therapy increases the likelihood of survival. The use of simple wound therapy adjuncts such as NPWT can give excellent wound healing results.</p&gt

A plague on five of your houses - statistical re-assessment of three pneumonic plague outbreaks that occurred in Suffolk, England, between 1906 and 1918

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Plague is a re-emerging disease and its pneumonic form is a high priority bio-terrorist threat. Epidemiologists have previously analysed historical outbreaks of pneumonic plague to better understand the dynamics of infection, transmission and control. This study examines 3 relatively unknown outbreaks of pneumonic plague that occurred in Suffolk, England, during the first 2 decades of the twentieth century.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test is used to compare the symptomatic period and the length of time between successive cases (i.e. the serial interval) with previously reported values. Consideration is also given to the case fatality ratio, the average number of secondary cases resulting from each primary case in the observed minor outbreaks (termed <it>R</it>_{<it>minor</it>}), and the proportion of individuals living within an affected household that succumb to pneumonic plague via the index case (i.e. the household secondary attack rate (SAR)).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>2 of the 14 cases survived giving a case fatality ratio of 86% (95% confidence interval (CI) = {57%, 98%}). For the 12 fatal cases, the average symptomatic period was 3.3 days (standard deviation (SD) = 1.2 days) and, for the 11 non index cases, the average serial interval was 5.8 days (SD = 2.0 days). <it>R</it>_{<it>minor </it>}was calculated to be 0.9 (SD = 1.0) and, in 2 households, the SAR was approximately 14% (95% CI = {0%, 58%}) and 20% (95% CI = {1%, 72%}), respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The symptomatic period was approximately 1 day longer on average than in an earlier study but the serial interval was in close agreement with 2 previously reported values. 2 of the 3 outbreaks ended without explicit public health interventions; however, non-professional caregivers were particularly vulnerable - an important public health consideration for any future outbreak of pneumonic plague.</p

Development and Evaluation of Two Simple, Rapid Immunochromatographic Tests for the Detection of Yersinia pestis Antibodies in Humans and Reservoirs

Plague is due to the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It is accidentally transmitted to humans by the bite of infected fleas. Currently, approximately 20 developing countries with very limited infrastructure are still affected. A plague case was defined according to clinical, epidemiological and biological features. Rapid diagnosis and surveillance of the disease are essential for its control. Indeed, the delay of treatment is often rapidly fatal for patients and outbreaks may occur. Bubo aspirate is the most appropriate specimen in case of bubonic plague, but its collection is not always feasible. The main current biological approaches for the diagnosis of human plague are F1 antigen detection, serology for antibody detection by ELISA and Y. pestis isolation. The biological diagnosis of plague remains a challenge because the clinical signs are not specific. In this study, we developed some simple, rapid and affordable tests able to detect specific plague antibodies. These tests can be used as alternative methods for plague diagnosis in the field and for plague surveillance

Temporal differences of onset between primary skin lesions and regional lymph node lesions for tularemia in Japan: a clinicopathologic and immunohistochemical study of 19 skin cases and 54 lymph node cases

For tularemia, a zoonosis caused by the gram-negative coccobacillus Francisella tularensis, research of the relation between skin lesions and lymph node lesions has not been reported in the literature. This report describes skin lesions and lymph node lesions and their mutual relation over time for tularemia in Japan. Around the second day after infection (DAI), a subcutaneous abscess was observed (abscess form). Hand and finger skin ulcers formed during the second to the fourth week. Subcutaneous and dermal granulomas were observed with adjacent monocytoid B lymphocytes (MBLs) (abscess–granulomatous form). From the sixth week, large granulomas with central homogeneous lesions emerged diffusely (granulomatous form). On 2–14 DAI, F. tularensis antigen in skin lesions was detected in abscesses. During 7–12 DAI, abscesses with adjacent MBLs appeared without epithelioid granuloma (abscess form) in regional lymph nodes. During the second to fifth week, granulomas appeared with necrosis (abscess–granulomatous form). After the sixth week, large granulomas with a central homogeneous lesion (granulomatous form) appeared. F. tularensis antigen in lymph node lesions was observed in the abscess on 7–92 DAI. Apparently, F. tularensis penetrates the finger skin immediately after contact with infected hares. Subsequently, the primary lesion gradually transfers from skin to regional lymph nodes. The regional lymph node lesions induced by skin lesion are designated as dermatopathic lymphadenopathy. This study revealed temporal differences of onset among the skin and lymph node lesions

A genetic algorithm-Bayesian network approach for the analysis of metabolomics and spectroscopic data: application to the rapid detection of Bacillus spores and identification of Bacillus species

Background The rapid identification of Bacillus spores and bacterial identification are paramount because of their implications in food poisoning, pathogenesis and their use as potential biowarfare agents. Many automated analytical techniques such as Curie-point pyrolysis mass spectrometry (Py-MS) have been used to identify bacterial spores giving use to large amounts of analytical data. This high number of features makes interpretation of the data extremely difficult We analysed Py-MS data from 36 different strains of aerobic endospore-forming bacteria encompassing seven different species. These bacteria were grown axenically on nutrient agar and vegetative biomass and spores were analyzed by Curie-point Py-MS. Results We develop a novel genetic algorithm-Bayesian network algorithm that accurately identifies sand selects a small subset of key relevant mass spectra (biomarkers) to be further analysed. Once identified, this subset of relevant biomarkers was then used to identify Bacillus spores successfully and to identify Bacillus species via a Bayesian network model specifically built for this reduced set of features. Conclusions This final compact Bayesian network classification model is parsimonious, computationally fast to run and its graphical visualization allows easy interpretation of the probabilistic relationships among selected biomarkers. In addition, we compare the features selected by the genetic algorithm-Bayesian network approach with the features selected by partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). The classification accuracy results show that the set of features selected by the GA-BN is far superior to PLS-DA

Yersinia pestis Evolution on a Small Timescale: Comparison of Whole Genome Sequences from North America

Yersinia pestis, the etiologic agent of plague, was responsible for several devastating epidemics throughout history and is currently of global importance to current public heath and biodefense efforts. Y. pestis is widespread in the Western United States. Because Y. pestis was first introduced to this region just over 100 years ago, there has been little time for genetic diversity to accumulate. Recent studies based upon single nucleotide polymorphisms have begun to quantify the genetic diversity of Y. pestis in North America.To examine the evolution of Y. pestis in North America, a gapped genome sequence of CA88-4125 was generated. Sequence comparison with another North American Y. pestis strain, CO92, identified seven regions of difference (six inversions, one rearrangement), differing IS element copy numbers, and several SNPs.The relatively large number of inverted/rearranged segments suggests that North American Y. pestis strains may be undergoing inversion fixation at high rates over a short time span, contributing to higher-than-expected diversity in this region. These findings will hopefully encourage the scientific community to sequence additional Y. pestis strains from North America and abroad, leading to a greater understanding of the evolutionary history of this pathogen

Antiviral resistance during pandemic influenza: implications for stockpiling and drug use

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The anticipated extent of antiviral use during an influenza pandemic can have adverse consequences for the development of drug resistance and rationing of limited stockpiles. The strategic use of drugs is therefore a major public health concern in planning for effective pandemic responses.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We employed a mathematical model that includes both sensitive and resistant strains of a virus with pandemic potential, and applies antiviral drugs for treatment of clinical infections. Using estimated parameters in the published literature, the model was simulated for various sizes of stockpiles to evaluate the outcome of different antiviral strategies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We demonstrated that the emergence of highly transmissible resistant strains has no significant impact on the use of available stockpiles if treatment is maintained at low levels or the reproduction number of the sensitive strain is sufficiently high. However, moderate to high treatment levels can result in a more rapid depletion of stockpiles, leading to run-out, by promoting wide-spread drug resistance. We applied an antiviral strategy that delays the onset of aggressive treatment for a certain amount of time after the onset of the outbreak. Our results show that if high treatment levels are enforced too early during the outbreak, a second wave of infections can potentially occur with a substantially larger magnitude. However, a timely implementation of wide-scale treatment can prevent resistance spread in the population, and minimize the final size of the pandemic.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results reveal that conservative treatment levels during the early stages of the outbreak, followed by a timely increase in the scale of drug-use, will offer an effective strategy to manage drug resistance in the population and avoid run-out. For a 1918-like strain, the findings suggest that pandemic plans should consider stockpiling antiviral drugs to cover at least 20% of the population.</p

Lovastatin Protects against Experimental Plague in Mice

Background: Plague is an ectoparasite-borne deadly infection caused by Yersinia pestis, a bacterium classified among the group A bioterrorism agents. Thousands of deaths are reported every year in some African countries. Tetracyclines and cotrimoxazole are used in the secondary prophylaxis of plague in the case of potential exposure to Y. pestis, but cotrimoxazole-resistant isolates have been reported. There is a need for additional prophylactic measures. We aimed to study the effectiveness of lovastatin, a cholesterol-lowering drug known to alleviate the symptoms of sepsis, for plague prophylaxis in an experimental model. Methodology: Lovastatin dissolved in Endolipide was intraperitoneally administered to mice (20 mg/kg) every day for 6 days prior to a Y. pestis Orientalis biotype challenge. Non-challenged, lovastatin-treated and challenged, untreated mice were also used as control groups in the study. Body weight, physical behavior and death were recorded both prior to infection and for 10 days post-infection. Samples of the blood, lungs and spleen were collected from dead mice for direct microbiological examination, histopathology and culture. The potential antibiotic effect of lovastatin was tested on blood agar plates. Conclusions/Significance: Lovastatin had no in-vitro antibiotic effect against Y. pestis. The difference in the mortality between control mice (11/15; 73.5%) and lovastatin-treated mice (3/15; 20%) was significant (P,0.004; Mantel-Haensze

Anthrax Lethal Toxin Suppresses Murine Cardiomyocyte Contractile Function and Intracellular Ca2+ Handling via a NADPH Oxidase-Dependent Mechanism

OBJECTIVES: Anthrax infection is associated with devastating cardiovascular sequelae, suggesting unfavorable cardiovascular effects of toxins originated from Bacillus anthracis namely lethal and edema toxins. This study was designed to examine the direct effect of lethal toxins on cardiomyocyte contractile and intracellular Ca(2+) properties. METHODS: Murine cardiomyocyte contractile function and intracellular Ca(2+) handling were evaluated including peak shortening (PS), maximal velocity of shortening/ relengthening (± dL/dt), time-to-PS (TPS), time-to-90% relengthening (TR(90)), intracellular Ca(2+) rise measured as fura-2 fluorescent intensity (ΔFFI), and intracellular Ca(2+) decay rate. Stress signaling and Ca(2+) regulatory proteins were assessed using Western blot analysis. RESULTS: In vitro exposure to a lethal toxin (0.05-50 nM) elicited a concentration-dependent depression on cardiomyocyte contractile and intracellular Ca(2+) properties (PS, ± dL/dt, ΔFFI), along with prolonged duration of contraction and intracellular Ca(2+) decay, the effects of which were nullified by the NADPH oxidase inhibitor apocynin. The lethal toxin significantly enhanced superoxide production and cell death, which were reversed by apocynin. In vivo lethal toxin exposure exerted similar time-dependent cardiomyocyte mechanical and intracellular Ca(2+) responses. Stress signaling cascades including MEK1/2, p38, ERK and JNK were unaffected by in vitro lethal toxins whereas they were significantly altered by in vivo lethal toxins. Ca(2+) regulatory proteins SERCA2a and phospholamban were also differentially regulated by in vitro and in vivo lethal toxins. Autophagy was drastically triggered although ER stress was minimally affected following lethal toxin exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that lethal toxins directly compromised murine cardiomyocyte contractile function and intracellular Ca(2+) through a NADPH oxidase-dependent mechanism