Truncating the Y-Axis: Threat or Menace?

Bar charts with y-axes that don't begin at zero can visually exaggerate effect sizes. However, advice for whether or not to truncate the y-axis can be equivocal for other visualization types. In this paper we present examples of visualizations where this y-axis truncation can be beneficial as well as harmful, depending on the communicative and analytic intent. We also present the results of a series of crowd-sourced experiments in which we examine how y-axis truncation impacts subjective effect size across visualization types, and we explore alternative designs that more directly alert viewers to this truncation. We find that the subjective impact of axis truncation is persistent across visualizations designs, even for designs with explicit visual cues that indicate truncation has taken place. We suggest that designers consider the scale of the meaningful effect sizes and variation they intend to communicate, regardless of the visual encoding

Simplicity in Visual Representation: A Semiotic Approach

Simplicity, as an ideal in the design of visual representations, has not received systematic attention. High-level guidelines are too general, and low-level guidelines too ad hoc, too numerous, and too often incompatible, to serve in a particular design situation. This paper reviews notions of visual simplicity in the literature within the analytical framework provided by Charles Morris' communication model, specifically, his trichotomy of communication levels—the syntactic, the semantic, and the pragmatic. Simplicity is ultimate ly shown to entail the adjudication of incompatibilities both within, and between, levels.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68281/2/10.1177_105065198700100103.pd

Does democracy promote equality?

The linkage between liberal democracy and income inequality has been the subject of considerable empirical research. However, the literature has largely ignored advances in the techniques for measuring income distribution which help to improve and strengthen the robustness of research findings in this field. by drawing upon recent developments in data collection and formal analyses, this paper explores inequality trends in selected Western democracies over the 1970s and 1980s. The results indicate that the gap between rich and poor is widening in some countries but not in all, thus pointing to the role of national policies in the redistribution of income. Conventional models grounded on demand driven policies persuasively explain declining income inequality, yet fail to account for the rising trends in the 1980s. Reasons for this failure are the omission of political 'slack' as a key dimension in redistributive options and the fallacy of linearity. The paper shows that despite significant progress, we are still not in a position to be confident of our theories and methods

Temporal Aggregation in Political Budget Cycles

While existing cross-country studies on political budget cycles rely on annual data, we build a panel with quarterly and monthly data from Latin American and OECD countries over the 1980-2005 period. Disaggregated data allow to center the electoral year more precisely, and show the effects are concentrated in a three-quarter window around elections. Cycles are statistically significant only in Latin America, but the pattern is similar to OECD countries: the budget surplus/GDP ratio falls in the election period and rises in the post-election period. In line with the logic of rational opportunistic manipulation, these effects cancel out

Testing Models of Distributive Politics in Multiparty Systems: The Case of Spain

This paper extends empirical literature on political economy of intergovernmental transfers to multiparty systems that are typical for most European countries. It proposes and uses new methods of estimating the number of swing voters from survey data. The first method estimates densities at the cutpoints, where a voter is equidistant to competing parties. To take into account bi-dimensionality of Spanish politics for three party regions, we estimate bivariate densities at the cutpoints on the left-right and nationalist dimensions. The second method counts voters with similar predicted likelihoods of voting for parties in the regions. The likelihoods of voting are estimated with the multinomial probit technique and include additional controls for the nationalist sentiment. We find that political variables enter significantly into allocation of state subventions in Spain, and the magnitude of the effect is comparable to that of economic variables. In particular, we find strong evidence for the loyal hypothesis and no evidence for the swing hypothesis. In line with the explanation suggested by Cox and McCubbins (1986), the risk-averse incumbent prefers investing in loyal regions, where he knows better preferences and numbers of their supporters

Modeling International Diffusion: Inferential Benefits and Methodological Challenges, with an Application to International Tax Competition

Although scholars recognize that time-series-cross-section data typically correlate across both time and space, they tend to model temporal dependence directly, often by lags of dependent variables, but to address spatial interdependence solely as a nuisance to be “corrected” by FGLS or to which to be “robust” in standard-error estimation (by PCSE). We explore the inferential benefits and methodological challenges of directly modeling international diffusion, one form of spatial dependence. To this end, we first identify two substantive classes of modern comparative-and-international-political-economy (C&IPE) theoretical models—(context-conditional) open-economy comparative political-economy (CPE) models and international political-economy (IPE) models, which imply diffusion (along with predecessors, closed-economy CPE and orthogonal open-economy CPE)—and then we evaluate the relative performance of three estimators—non-spatial OLS, spatial OLS, and spatial 2SLS—for analyzing empirical models corresponding to these two modern alternative theoretical visions from spatially interdependent data. Finally, we offer a substantive application of the spatial 2SLS approach in what we call a spatial error-correction model of international tax competition.Obwohl Wissenschaftler wissen, dass Zeitreihenquerschnittsdaten sowohl über die Zeit als auch über den Raum korreliert sind, neigen sie dazu, die zeitliche Abhängigkeit direkt zu modellieren, z. B. durch Zeitabstände der abhängigen Variablen. Die räumliche Abhängigkeit jedoch wird als ein Ärgernis angesehen, welches durch FGLS ‚korrigiert’ wird oder ‚robust’ gemacht wird in Standard- Abweichungs-Schätzungen (durch PCSE). Wir untersuchen methodologische Herausforderungen und die Nutzen für Schlussfolgerungen aus einer direkten Modellierung internationaler Diffusion als einer Form der räumlichen Abhängigkeit. Zu diesem Zweck identifizieren wir zuerst zwei inhaltliche Hauptklassen theoretischer Modelle der modernen ‚Vergleichenden und Internationalen Politischen Ökonomie“, nämlich Modelle der (kontextbezogenen) Vergleichenden Politischen Ökonomie Offener Volkwirtschaften und Modelle der Internationalen Politischen Ökonomie. Diese bilden Diffusion ab, ebenso wie die Vorläufermodelle der Vergleichenden Politischen Ökonomie geschlossener Volkswirtschaften und gegensätzlich offener Volkswirtschaften. Zweitens bewerten wir die relative Performanz von drei Schätzern – nicht-räumliche OLS, räumliche OLS und räumliche 2SLS. Schließlich wenden wir den Ansatz des räumlichen 2SLS in einem von uns so genannten ‚Spatial Error Correction’-Modell des internationalen Steuerwettbewerbs an