Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

Open Access at publisher's web site: http://www.springerlink.com/content/b682734237171631

Effect of D222G Mutation in the Hemagglutinin Protein on Receptor Binding, Pathogenesis and Transmissibility of the 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Virus

Influenza viruses isolated during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic generally lack known molecular determinants of virulence associated with previous pandemic and highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses. The frequency of the amino acid substitution D222G in the hemagglutinin (HA) of 2009 H1N1 viruses isolated from severe but not mild human cases represents the first molecular marker associated with enhanced disease. To assess the relative contribution of this substitution in virus pathogenesis, transmission, and tropism, we introduced D222G by reverse genetics in the wild-type HA of the 2009 H1N1 virus, A/California/04/09 (CA/04). A dose-dependent glycan array analysis with the D222G virus showed a modest reduction in the binding avidity to human-like (α2-6 sialylated glycan) receptors and an increase in the binding to avian-like (α2-3 sialylated glycan) receptors in comparison with wild-type virus. In the ferret pathogenesis model, the D222G mutant virus was found to be similar to wild-type CA/04 virus with respect to lethargy, weight loss and replication efficiency in the upper and lower respiratory tract. Moreover, based on viral detection, the respiratory droplet transmission properties of these two viruses were found to be similar. The D222G virus failed to productively infect mice inoculated by the ocular route, but exhibited greater viral replication and weight loss than wild-type CA/04 virus in mice inoculated by the intranasal route. In a more relevant human cell model, D222G virus replicated with delayed kinetics compared with wild-type virus but to higher titer in human bronchial epithelial cells. These findings suggest that although the D222G mutation does not influence virus transmission, it may be considered a molecular marker for enhanced replication in certain cell types.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.)United States. National Institutes of Health (merit award R37 GM057073-13)Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technolog

Spatial Pattern of Standing Timber Value across the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon is a globally important system, providing a host of ecosystem services from climate regulation to food sources. It is also home to a quarter of all global diversity. Large swathes of forest are removed each year, and many models have attempted to predict the spatial patterns of this forest loss. The spatial patterns of deforestation are determined largely by the patterns of roads that open access to frontier areas and expansion of the road network in the Amazon is largely determined by profit seeking logging activities. Here we present predictions for the spatial distribution of standing value of timber across the Amazon. We show that the patterns of timber value reflect large-scale ecological gradients, determining the spatial distribution of functional traits of trees which are, in turn, correlated with timber values. We expect that understanding the spatial patterns of timber value across the Amazon will aid predictions of logging movements and thus predictions of potential future road developments. These predictions in turn will be of great use in estimating the spatial patterns of deforestation in this globally important biome

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure

Prevalence of soil transmitted nematodes on Nukufetau, a remote Pacific island in Tuvalu

BACKGROUND: The population of Nukufetau, a remote coral atoll island in Tuvalu in the Western Pacific, received annual mass drug administration (MDA) of diethylcarbamazine and albendazole under the Pacific Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis program in 2001, 2002 and 2003, with the last MDA occurring six months before a cross-sectional survey of the whole population for soil transmitted helminths (STH). METHODS: A cross-sectional survey in May 2004 recruited 206 residents (35.2% of the population) who provided a single faecal sample that was preserved, concentrated and examined microscopically. RESULTS: Overall prevalence of STH was 69.9%; only hookworm and Trichuris trichiura were diagnosed. Trichuris was present in 68.4% with intensity of infection being light in 56.3%, medium in 11.7% and heavy in 0.5%. Hookworm occurred in 11.7% with intensity of infection 11.2% being light and medium in 0.5%. Twenty individuals (9.7%) had dual infections. The prevalence of Trichuris was constant across all ages while the prevalence of hookworm was significantly lower in residents below 30 years of age. In the age group 5–12 years comparison of results with a 2001 survey [1] suggested that the prevalence of STH has declined minimally, due to sustained high prevalence of Trichuris, while hookworm has declined dramatically from 34.4% to 1.6%. CONCLUSION: The results of this survey suggest that although the MDA appears to have reduced hookworm prevalence in residents below 30 years of age, there has been minimal effect on Trichuris prevalence. An integrated program to control STH is required

Shifting Home Energy Consumption Through a Holistic Understanding of the Home System of Practice

This chapter describes the concept of the home system of practice, which can be used to provide a deeper understanding of the social system of the home and inform long-term solutions for enabling domestic energy reduction. More traditional methods have attempted to persuade occupants to change behaviour through the use of information campaigns and feedback technology. However, these interventions are usually short lived as they ignore the underlying reasons for practices to occur. A more effective solution is through practice-oriented design, which co-creates innovative technology with the user. In addition, the emergence and use of automated technology enables practices to act independently of the user. Yet, the success of automation is also reliant on an understanding of the home system of practice, occupant needs and skills

Prioritizing Risks and Uncertainties from Intentional Release of Selected Category A Pathogens

This paper synthesizes available information on five Category A pathogens (Bacillus anthracis, Yersinia pestis, Francisella tularensis, Variola major and Lassa) to develop quantitative guidelines for how environmental pathogen concentrations may be related to human health risk in an indoor environment. An integrated model of environmental transport and human health exposure to biological pathogens is constructed which 1) includes the effects of environmental attenuation, 2) considers fomite contact exposure as well as inhalational exposure, and 3) includes an uncertainty analysis to identify key input uncertainties, which may inform future research directions. The findings provide a framework for developing the many different environmental standards that are needed for making risk-informed response decisions, such as when prophylactic antibiotics should be distributed, and whether or not a contaminated area should be cleaned up. The approach is based on the assumption of uniform mixing in environmental compartments and is thus applicable to areas sufficiently removed in time and space from the initial release that mixing has produced relatively uniform concentrations. Results indicate that when pathogens are released into the air, risk from inhalation is the main component of the overall risk, while risk from ingestion (dermal contact for B. anthracis) is the main component of the overall risk when pathogens are present on surfaces. Concentrations sampled from untracked floor, walls and the filter of heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system are proposed as indicators of previous exposure risk, while samples taken from touched surfaces are proposed as indicators of future risk if the building is reoccupied. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis is conducted and input-output correlations used to identify important parameter uncertainties. An approach is proposed for integrating these quantitative assessments of parameter uncertainty with broader, qualitative considerations to identify future research priorities

Changes in Present and Future Circulation Types Frequency in Northwest Iberian Peninsula

The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4th assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types

Enhanced Immunogenicity, Mortality Protection, and Reduced Viral Brain Invasion by Alum Adjuvant with an H5N1 Split-Virion Vaccine in the Ferret

Pre-pandemic development of an inactivated, split-virion avian influenza vaccine is challenged by the lack of pre-existing immunity and the reduced immunogenicity of some H5 hemagglutinins compared to that of seasonal influenza vaccines. Identification of an acceptable effective adjuvant is needed to improve immunogenicity of a split-virion avian influenza vaccine.No serum antibodies were detected after vaccination with unadjuvanted vaccine, whereas alum-adjuvanted vaccination induced a robust antibody response. Survival after unadjuvanted dose regimens of 30 µg, 7.5 µg and 1.9 µg (21-day intervals) was 64%, 43%, and 43%, respectively, yet survivors experienced weight loss, fever and thrombocytopenia. Survival after unadjuvanted dose regimen of 22.5 µg (28-day intervals) was 0%, suggesting important differences in intervals in this model. In contrast to unadjuvanted survivors, either dose of alum-adjuvanted vaccine resulted in 93% survival with minimal morbidity and without fever or weight loss. The rarity of brain inflammation in alum-adjuvanted survivors, compared to high levels in unadjuvanted vaccine survivors, suggested that improved protection associated with the alum adjuvant was due to markedly reduced early viral invasion of the ferret brain.Alum adjuvant significantly improves efficacy of an H5N1 split-virion vaccine in the ferret model as measured by immunogenicity, mortality, morbidity, and brain invasion