ESAT-6/CFP10 Skin Test Predicts Disease in M. tuberculosis-Infected Guinea Pigs

Background: Targeted preventive chemotherapy of individuals with progressive subclinical (incipient) disease before it becomes contagious would break the chain of tuberculosis transmission in high endemic regions. We have studied the ability of a skin test response to ESAT-6 and CFP10 (E6/C10) to predict later development of tuberculosis disease in the guinea pig model. Methods and Findings: Guinea pigs, either vaccinated with BCG or unvaccinated, were infected with a low dose of Mycobacterium tuberculosis by the aerosol route and the development of delayed type hypersensitivity responses to E6/C10 and to purified protein derivative (PPD) were followed until the onset of clinical disease. We demonstrated a negative correlation between the size of the skin test response and the time to the onset of clinical disease; a large E6/C10 skin test response correlated to a shorter survival time post skin testing, while a small E6/C10 skin test reaction correlated with a longer survival time (r = 20.6 and P,0.0001). No correlation was found using PPD. Conclusions: Our data suggest that it may be possible to develop a prognostic skin test based on E6/C10 that will allow the identification of individuals with incipient disease, who have the highest risk of developing active tuberculosis in the near future

The benefits and risks of bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination among infants at high risk for both tuberculosis and severe combined immunodeficiency: assessment by Markov model

BACKGROUND: Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is given to Canadian Aboriginal neonates in selected communities. Severe reactions and deaths associated with BCG have been reported among infants born with immunodeficiency syndromes. The main objective of this study was to estimate threshold values for severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) incidence, above which BCG is associated with greater risk than benefit. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to simulate the natural histories of tuberculosis (TB) and SCID in children from birth to 14 years. The annual risk of tuberculous infection (ARI) and SCID incidence were varied in analyses. The model compared a scenario of no vaccination to intervention with BCG. Appropriate variability and uncertainty analyses were conducted. Outcomes included TB incidence and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). RESULTS: In sensitivity analyses, QALYs were lower among vaccinated infants if the ARI was 0.1% and the rate of SCID was higher than 4.2 per 100,000. Assuming an ARI of 1%, this threshold increased to 41 per 100,000. In uncertainty analyses (Monte Carlo simulations) which assumed an ARI of 0.1%, QALYs were not significantly increased by BCG unless SCID incidence is 0. With this ARI, QALYs were significantly decreased among vaccinated children if SCID incidence exceeds 23 per 100,000. BCG is associated with a significant increase in QALYs if the ARI is 1%, and SCID incidence is below 5 per 100,000. CONCLUSION: The possibility that Canadian Aboriginal children are at increased risk for SCID has serious implications for continued BCG use in this population. In this context, enhanced TB Control – including early detection and treatment of infection – may be a safer, more effective alternative