Minimum sample size for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a binary outcome

In prediction model research, external validation is needed to examine an existing model's performance using data independent to that for model development. Current external validation studies often suffer from small sample sizes and consequently imprecise predictive performance estimates. To address this, we propose how to determine the minimum sample size needed for a new external validation study of a prediction model for a binary outcome. Our calculations aim to precisely estimate calibration (Observed/Expected and calibration slope), discrimination (C-statistic), and clinical utility (net benefit). For each measure, we propose closed-form and iterative solutions for calculating the minimum sample size required. These require specifying: (i) target SEs (confidence interval widths) for each estimate of interest, (ii) the anticipated outcome event proportion in the validation population, (iii) the prediction model's anticipated (mis)calibration and variance of linear predictor values in the validation population, and (iv) potential risk thresholds for clinical decision-making. The calculations can also be used to inform whether the sample size of an existing (already collected) dataset is adequate for external validation. We illustrate our proposal for external validation of a prediction model for mechanical heart valve failure with an expected outcome event proportion of 0.018. Calculations suggest at least 9835 participants (177 events) are required to precisely estimate the calibration and discrimination measures, with this number driven by the calibration slope criterion, which we anticipate will often be the case. Also, 6443 participants (116 events) are required to precisely estimate net benefit at a risk threshold of 8%. Software code is provided.</p

Ischemia of the lung causes extensive long-term pulmonary injury: an experimental study

Background: Lung ischemia-reperfusion injury (LIRI) is suggested to be a major risk factor for development of primary acute graft failure (PAGF) following lung transplantation, although other factors have been found to interplay with LIRI. The question whether LIRI exclusively results in PAGF seems difficult to answer, which is partly due to the lack of a long-term experimental LIRI model, in which PAGF changes can be studied. In addition, the long-term effects of LIRI are unclear and a detailed description of the immunological changes over time after LIRI is missing. Therefore our purpose was to establish a long-term experimental model of LIRI, and to study the impact of LIRI on the development of PAGF, using a broad spectrum of LIRI parameters including leukocyte kinetics.Methods: Male Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 135) were subjected to 120 minutes of left lung warm ischemia or were sham-operated. A third group served as healthy controls. Animals were sacrificed 1, 3, 7, 30 or 90 days after surgery. Blood gas values, lung compliance, surfactant conversion, capillary permeability, and the presence of MMP-2 and MMP-9 in broncho-alveolar-lavage flui

Modification of the nanostructure of lignocellulose cell walls via a non-enzymatic lignocellulose deconstruction system in brown rot wood-decay fungi

Abstract Wood decayed by brown rot fungi and wood treated with the chelator-mediated Fenton (CMF) reaction, either alone or together with a cellulose enzyme cocktail, was analyzed by small angle neutron scattering (SANS), sum frequency generation (SFG) spectroscopy, Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) analysis, X-ray diffraction (XRD), atomic force microscopy (AFM), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Results showed that the CMF mechanism mimicked brown rot fungal attack for both holocellulose and lignin components of the wood. Crystalline cellulose and lignin were both depolymerized by the CMF reaction. Porosity of the softwood cell wall did not increase during CMF treatment, enzymes secreted by the fungi did not penetrate the decayed wood. The enzymes in the cellulose cocktail also did not appear to alter the effects of the CMF-treated wood relative to enhancing cell wall deconstruction. This suggests a rethinking of current brown rot decay models and supports a model where monomeric sugars and oligosaccharides diffuse from the softwood cell walls during non-enzymatic action. In this regard, the CMF mechanism should not be thought of as a “pretreatment” used to permit enzymatic penetration into softwood cell walls, but instead it enhances polysaccharide components diffusing to fungal enzymes located in wood cell lumen environments during decay. SANS and other data are consistent with a model for repolymerization and aggregation of at least some portion of the lignin within the cell wall, and this is supported by AFM and TEM data. The data suggest that new approaches for conversion of wood substrates to platform chemicals in biorefineries could be achieved using the CMF mechanism with >75% solubilization of lignocellulose, but that a more selective suite of enzymes and other downstream treatments may be required to work when using CMF deconstruction technology. Strategies to enhance polysaccharide release from lignocellulose substrates for enhanced enzymatic action and fermentation of the released fraction would also aid in the efficient recovery of the more uniform modified lignin fraction that the CMF reaction generates to enhance biorefinery profitability

Chronic Alcohol Exposure Alters Behavioral and Synaptic Plasticity of the Rodent Prefrontal Cortex

In the present study, we used a mouse model of chronic intermittent ethanol (CIE) exposure to examine how CIE alters the plasticity of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). In acute slices obtained either immediately or 1-week after the last episode of alcohol exposure, voltage-clamp recording of excitatory post-synaptic currents (EPSCs) in mPFC layer V pyramidal neurons revealed that CIE exposure resulted in an increase in the NMDA/AMPA current ratio. This increase appeared to result from a selective increase in the NMDA component of the EPSC. Consistent with this, Western blot analysis of the postsynaptic density fraction showed that while there was no change in expression of the AMPA GluR1 subunit, NMDA NR1 and NRB subunits were significantly increased in CIE exposed mice when examined immediately after the last episode of alcohol exposure. Unexpectedly, this increase in NR1 and NR2B was no longer observed after 1-week of withdrawal in spite of a persistent increase in synaptic NMDA currents. Analysis of spines on the basal dendrites of layer V neurons revealed that while the total density of spines was not altered, there was a selective increase in the density of mushroom-type spines following CIE exposure. Examination of NMDA-receptor mediated spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) showed that CIE exposure was associated with altered expression of long-term potentiation (LTP). Lastly, behavioral studies using an attentional set-shifting task that depends upon the mPFC for optimal performance revealed deficits in cognitive flexibility in CIE exposed mice when tested up to 1-week after the last episode of alcohol exposure. Taken together, these observations are consistent with those in human alcoholics showing protracted deficits in executive function, and suggest these deficits may be associated with alterations in synaptic plasticity in the mPFC

History of clinical transplantation

The emergence of transplantation has seen the development of increasingly potent immunosuppressive agents, progressively better methods of tissue and organ preservation, refinements in histocompatibility matching, and numerous innovations is surgical techniques. Such efforts in combination ultimately made it possible to successfully engraft all of the organs and bone marrow cells in humans. At a more fundamental level, however, the transplantation enterprise hinged on two seminal turning points. The first was the recognition by Billingham, Brent, and Medawar in 1953 that it was possible to induce chimerism-associated neonatal tolerance deliberately. This discovery escalated over the next 15 years to the first successful bone marrow transplantations in humans in 1968. The second turning point was the demonstration during the early 1960s that canine and human organ allografts could self-induce tolerance with the aid of immunosuppression. By the end of 1962, however, it had been incorrectly concluded that turning points one and two involved different immune mechanisms. The error was not corrected until well into the 1990s. In this historical account, the vast literature that sprang up during the intervening 30 years has been summarized. Although admirably documenting empiric progress in clinical transplantation, its failure to explain organ allograft acceptance predestined organ recipients to lifetime immunosuppression and precluded fundamental changes in the treatment policies. After it was discovered in 1992 that long-surviving organ transplant recipient had persistent microchimerism, it was possible to see the mechanistic commonality of organ and bone marrow transplantation. A clarifying central principle of immunology could then be synthesized with which to guide efforts to induce tolerance systematically to human tissues and perhaps ultimately to xenografts

Evidence-based Kernels: Fundamental Units of Behavioral Influence

This paper describes evidence-based kernels, fundamental units of behavioral influence that appear to underlie effective prevention and treatment for children, adults, and families. A kernel is a behavior–influence procedure shown through experimental analysis to affect a specific behavior and that is indivisible in the sense that removing any of its components would render it inert. Existing evidence shows that a variety of kernels can influence behavior in context, and some evidence suggests that frequent use or sufficient use of some kernels may produce longer lasting behavioral shifts. The analysis of kernels could contribute to an empirically based theory of behavioral influence, augment existing prevention or treatment efforts, facilitate the dissemination of effective prevention and treatment practices, clarify the active ingredients in existing interventions, and contribute to efficiently developing interventions that are more effective. Kernels involve one or more of the following mechanisms of behavior influence: reinforcement, altering antecedents, changing verbal relational responding, or changing physiological states directly. The paper describes 52 of these kernels, and details practical, theoretical, and research implications, including calling for a national database of kernels that influence human behavior