Structural Changes and Energy Consumption in the Japanese Economy 1975-95: An Input-Output Analysis

This paper analyzes the effects of the pervasive structural changes in the Japanese economy on its energy intensity in the decade 1975-85. It advances the energy input-output (I-O) structural decomposition analysis (SDA) in two ways. First, it introduces a double denominator method to relax the assumption that all electricity is derived from fossil fuels in energy I-O analysis. Second, it develops a model which identifies explicitly the effect of energy imports. The application of our model to the Japanese experience suggested that changes in final demand structure contributed more to reducing the energy intensity of the economy than the much discussed effects of changes in technology. The overall decline in the energy intensity of the economy was accompanied by drastic shifts in the fuel mix of its energy supply, in particular, a substitution of oil by natural gas.