Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

Background Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. Methods We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). Findings In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683–0·717]). Interpretation In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. Funding British Journal of Surgery Society

Chronic Hepatitis B Prevalence among Children and Mothers: Results from a Nationwide, Population-Based Survey in Lao People's Democratic Republic

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B is regarded as a serious public health issue in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), a Southeast Asian country. However, disease epidemiology among the general population is not well known, and thus a nationwide cross-sectional survey for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) prevalence in children and their mothers was conducted. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We applied three-stage cluster sampling using probability proportionate to size. After randomly selecting child (5 to 9 years old) and mother (15 to 45 years old) pairs from the selected villages, questionnaires and HBsAg rapid tests were conducted. Data from 965 child and mother pairs were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the independent association of individual background characteristics for the odds of being HBsAg positive. In total, 17 children and 27 mothers were HBsAg positive. HBsAg prevalence was estimated to be 1.7% (95% confidence interval: 0.8%-2.6%) in children, and 2.9% (95% confidence interval: 1.7%–4.2%) in their mothers after taking sampling design and weight of each sample into account. Mother's infection status was positively associated with HBsAg positivity in children (p<0.001), whereas other potential risk factors, such as ethnicity, proximity to health centers, and history of surgery, were not. There were no significant associations between mother's HBsAg status and history of surgery, and other sociodemographic factors. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the slow implementation of the hepatitis B vaccination program, HBsAg prevalence among children and their mothers was not high in Lao PDR compared to reports from neighboring countries. The reasons for the differences in prevalence among these countries are unclear. We recommend that prevalence surveys be conducted in populations born before and after the implementation of a hepatitis B vaccination program to better understand the epidemiology of hepatitis B