Mechanisms driving variability in the ocean forcing of Pine Island Glacier

Pine Island Glacier (PIG) terminates in a rapidly melting ice shelf, and ocean circulation and temperature are implicated in the retreat and growing contribution to sea level rise of PIG and nearby glaciers. However, the variability of the ocean forcing of PIG has been poorly constrained due to a lack of multi-year observations. Here we show, using a unique record close to the Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIIS), that there is considerable oceanic variability at seasonal and interannual timescales, including a pronounced cold period from October 2011 to May 2013. This variability can be largely explained by two processes: cumulative ocean surface heat fluxes and sea ice formation close to PIIS; and interannual reversals in ocean currents and associated heat transport within Pine Island Bay, driven by a combination of local and remote forcing. Local atmospheric forcing therefore plays an important role in driving oceanic variability close to PIIS

Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020

Ice losses from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have accelerated since the 1990s, accounting for a significant increase in the global mean sea level. Here, we present a new 29-year record of ice sheet mass balance from 1992 to 2020 from the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE). We compare and combine 50 independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from satellite observations of temporal changes in ice sheet flow, in ice sheet volume, and in Earth's gravity field. Between 1992 and 2020, the ice sheets contributed 21.0±1.9g€¯mm to global mean sea level, with the rate of mass loss rising from 105g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 between 1992 and 1996 to 372g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 between 2016 and 2020. In Greenland, the rate of mass loss is 169±9g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 between 1992 and 2020, but there are large inter-annual variations in mass balance, with mass loss ranging from 86g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 in 2017 to 444g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 in 2019 due to large variability in surface mass balance. In Antarctica, ice losses continue to be dominated by mass loss from West Antarctica (82±9g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1) and, to a lesser extent, from the Antarctic Peninsula (13±5g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1). East Antarctica remains close to a state of balance, with a small gain of 3±15g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1, but is the most uncertain component of Antarctica's mass balance. The dataset is publicly available at 10.5285/77B64C55-7166-4A06-9DEF-2E400398E452 (IMBIE Team, 2021)

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change

Trends and connections across the Antarctic cryosphere

Satellite observations have transformed our understanding of the Antarctic cryosphere. The continent holds the vast majority of Earth’s fresh water, and blankets swathes of the Southern Hemisphere in ice. Reductions in the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves have disturbed inland ice, triggering retreat, acceleration and drawdown of marine-terminating glaciers. The waxing and waning of Antarctic sea ice is one of Earth’s greatest seasonal habitat changes, and although the maximum extent of the sea ice has increased modestly since the 1970s, inter-annual variability is high, and there is evidence of longer-term decline in its extent

Regional acceleration in ice mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica using GRACE time-variable gravity data

We use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly gravity fields to determine the regional acceleration in ice mass loss in Greenland and Antarctica for 2003-2013. We find that the total mass loss is controlled by only a few regions. In Greenland, the southeast and northwest generate 70% of the loss (280±58 Gt/yr) mostly from ice dynamics, the southwest accounts for 54% of the total acceleration in loss (25.4±1.2 Gt/yr2) from a decrease in surface mass balance (SMB), followed by the northwest (34%), and we find no significant acceleration in the northeast. In Antarctica, the Amundsen Sea (AS) sector and the Antarctic Peninsula account for 64% and 17%, respectively, of the total loss (180±10 Gt/yr) mainly from ice dynamics. The AS sector contributes most of the acceleration in loss (11±4 Gt/yr2), and Queen Maud Land, East Antarctica, is the only sector with a significant mass gain due to a local increase in SMB (63±5 Gt/yr)

Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends

Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial–temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901–2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and north central Indian region

Evaluating Greenland glacial isostatic adjustment corrections using GRACE, altimetry and surface mass balance data

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) represents a source of uncertainty for ice sheet mass balance estimates from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) time-variable gravity measurements. We evaluate Greenland GIA corrections from Simpson et al (2009 Quat. Sci. Rev. 28 1631-57), A et al (2013 Geophys. J. Int. 192 557-72) and Wu et al (2010 Nature Geosci. 3 642-6) by comparing the spatial patterns of GRACE-derived ice mass trends calculated using the three corrections with volume changes from ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) and OIB (Operation IceBridge) altimetry missions, and surface mass balance products from the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO). During the period September 2003-August 2011, GRACE ice mass changes obtained using the Simpson et al (2009 Quat. Sci. Rev. 28 1631-57) and A et al (2013 Geophys. J. Int. 192 557-72) GIA corrections yield similar spatial patterns and amplitudes, and are consistent with altimetry observations and surface mass balance data. The two GRACE estimates agree within 2% on average over the entire ice sheet, and better than 15% in four subdivisions of Greenland. The third GRACE estimate corrected using the (Wu et al 2010 Nature Geosci. 3 642-6)) GIA shows similar spatial patterns, but produces an average ice mass loss for the entire ice sheet that is 64 - 67 Gt yr-1 smaller. In the Northeast the recovered ice mass change is 46-49 Gt yr -1 (245-270%) more positive than that deduced from the other two corrections. By comparing the spatial and temporal variability of the GRACE estimates with trends of volume changes from altimetry and surface mass balance from RACMO, we show that the Wu et al (2010 Nature Geosci. 3 642-6) correction leads to a large mass increase in the Northeast that is inconsistent with independent observations. © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd