PKQuest: a general physiologically based pharmacokinetic model. Introduction and application to propranolol

BACKGROUND: A "physiologically based pharmacokinetic" (PBPK) approach uses a realistic model of the animal to describe the pharmacokinetics. Previous PBPKs have been designed for specific solutes, required specification of a large number of parameters and have not been designed for general use. METHODS: This new PBPK program (PKQuest) includes a "Standardhuman" and "Standardrat" data set so that the user input is minimized. It has a simple user interface, graphical output and many new features: 1) An option that uses the measured plasma concentrations to solve for the time course of the gastrointestinal, intramuscular, intraperotineal or skin absorption and systemic availability of a drug – for a general non-linear system. 2) Capillary permeability limitation defined in terms of the permeability-surface area products. 4) Saturable plasma and tissue protein binding. 5) A lung model that includes perfusion-ventilation mismatch. 6) A general optimization routine using either a global (simulated annealing) or local (Powell) minimization applicable to all model parameters. RESULTS: PKQuest was applied to measurements of human propranolol pharmacokinetics and intestinal absorption. A meal has two effects: 1) increases portal blood flow by 50%; and 2) decreases liver metabolism by 20%. There is a significant delay in the oval propranolol absorption in fasting subjects that is absent in fed subjects. The oral absorption of the long acting form of propranolol continues for a period of more than 24 hours. CONCLUSIONS: PKQuest provides a new general purpose, easy to use, freely distributed and physiologically rigorous PBPK software routine

Estimating a Markovian epidemic model using household serial interval data from the early phase of an epidemic

The clinical serial interval of an infectious disease is the time between date of symptom onset in an index case and the date of symptom onset in one of its secondary cases. It is a quantity which is commonly collected during a pandemic and is of fundamental importance to public health policy and mathematical modelling. In this paper we present a novel method for calculating the serial interval distribution for a Markovian model of household transmission dynamics. This allows the use of Bayesian MCMC methods, with explicit evaluation of the likelihood, to fit to serial interval data and infer parameters of the underlying model. We use simulated and real data to verify the accuracy of our methodology and illustrate the importance of accounting for household size. The output of our approach can be used to produce posterior distributions of population level epidemic characteristics.Andrew J. Black, Joshua V. Ros

Non-interactive multiple predator effects on tadpole survival

We estimated interactions among and within three species of predator in their effects on prey survival using short-term predation experiments. The prey were Rana temporaria tadpoles, and the predators were dragonfly larvae (Anax imperator), newts (Triturus alpestris), and backswimmers (Notonecta glauca). Mortality rate per predator imposed by Triturus and Notonecta did not decline with predator density, whereas the predation rate of Anax was strongly reduced when the number of predator individuals increased. Impacts of all three predators were not altered by the presence of other species in pairwise combinations. This system is therefore characterized by interference between individual dragonflies but relatively independent effects of predator species. These results were largely predictable based on the natural history of the predators, and are encouraging for attempts to model communities as assemblages of interacting species