Income Distribution and the Macroeconomy: Some Conceptual and Measurement Issues

Being intended for students interested with the dynamics of interaction of the macroeconomy, income distribution and poverty and who are users of data and econometric models, this article highlights the conceptual weaknesses, measurement errors and biases of national accounts and household survey data that are commonly used in distributional analyses. It selectively reviews the literature on the methodology of linking income distribution to the macroeconomy.income distribution

Toward WTO 2000: a Seattle odyssey; commentary

World Trade Organization

International Trade and Factor Movements in Development Theory, Policy, and Experience

International Relations/Trade,

Income Distribution and the Macroeconomy: Some Conceptual and Measurement Issues

Being intended for students interested with the dynamics of interaction of the macroeconomy, income distribution and poverty and who are users of data and econometric models, this article highlights the conceptual weaknesses, measurement errors and biases of national accounts and household survey data that are commonly used in distributional analyses. It selectively reviews the literature on the methodology of linking income distribution to the macroeconomy.income distribution

Federalism and economic development in India: An assessment

This paper examines India’s federal system in the context of prospects for India’s future economic growth and development. After a brief review of India’s recent policy reforms and economic development outcomes, and of the country’s federal institutions, the analysis focuses on the major issues with respect to India’s federal system in terms of their developmental consequences. We examine the impacts of tax assignments, expenditure authority and the intergovernmental transfer system on the following aspects of India’s economy and economic performance: the quality of governance and government expenditure, the efficiency of the tax system, the fiscal health of different tiers of government, and the impacts on growth and on regional inequality. In each case, we discuss recent and possible policy reforms. We make comparisons with China’s federal system where this is instructive for analyzing the Indian case. Finally, we provide a discussion of potential reforms of aspects of India’s federal institutions.India, China, federalism, economic development,fiscal federalism, intergovernmental transfers, decentralization

India in the Global and Regional Trade - Determinants of Aggregate and Bilateral Trade Flows and Firms’ Decision to Export

This paper contributes to two strands of literature on empirical models of trade flows and trade policy. The first and the older strand is that of gravity models of bilateral trade flows going back to Hans Linneman (1966) and Tinbergen (1962) and its recent applications, particularly by Adams et al (2003) and De Rosa (2007) in analyzing the impact of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). Our focus is on applying the gravity model to analyze Indias trade flows (exports and imports) with its trading partners around the world and to examine the impact of various PTAs in which India or its trading partner or both are members. Clearly this is of interest, since, from 1991 India is aggressively negotiating and concluding PTAs of which South Asian preferential trade (and later free trade) agreement is the most prominent. We find that India is not well served by its pursuit of PTAs and should instead push for multilateral trade liberalisation by contributing to conclusion of the Doha round of negotiations with an agreement beneficial to all WTO members. The second and the more recent strand is the analysis of trade flows using data on exports of individual firms. It is well known that in all countries of the world relatively few firms participate in world trade, thus suggesting that characteristics of a firm (such as its size and productivity) are relevant besides country level barriers on trade matter for participation in world trade. This strand is rapidly growing. Ours is one of the very few attempts at modeling and estimating the decision of Indian firms on their participation using firm level data. The paper reports on our preliminary results. We have also collected primary data from a sample survey of firms to explore this issue deeper. While these data are yet to be fully analyzed, nevertheless some preliminary descriptive tables summarizing them are included in an Appendix.Non-discriminatory trade liberalisation, Gravity Model, Intrabloc trade effect, trade diversion, trade creation, Firm heterogeneity, Probability of exporting, Export performance, Logit, Probit, Fixed effect, Random effect, Tobit Model

Indian Federalism, Economic Reform and Globalization

In this paper we examine several dimensions of economic reform in India, in the context of the country’s federal system and of globalization, i.e., we explicitly recognize that the national government has subnational governments below it, and that all these layers of government simultaneously interact with foreign governments and corporations in a global economy. We examine two groups of reforms, the first involving redrawing of state-market boundaries, and the second concerned with reconfiguring federal institutions themselves. The first group includes financial sector reforms, assignment of regulatory powers, infrastructure reform and development, and privatization. We note the progress made in financial sector reform but also the problems caused for the financial sector as a whole by state and central fiscal deficits. We discuss the extreme problems of the power sector, and the important federal dimensions that make reform more difficult there. We also highlight the regional concentration of FDI in India’s more liberalized economy. The second group of reforms includes tax reforms, reform of center-state fiscal transfer mechanisms, and local government reforms. To some degree, these reforms in federal governance hold the key to opening the door to further reform elsewhere, by reducing the fiscal burden placed on the private sector by government deficits. We acknowledge the political economy aspects of reform of governance, and discuss possibilities for politically acceptable packages of fiscal reforms, such as combinations of changes in tax assignment that would be acceptable to the center as well as the state governments. We also discuss the possibility that growing regional inequalities might require the intergovernmental transfer system to be more efficient and effective in its objectives.

Foreign Capital, Inflation, Sterilization, Crowding-Out and

This paper discusses some puzzles in the contemporary macroeconomic scene in India, from the perspective of public finance and economic development. These include a fiscal deficit higher than it was during the 1991 crisis, but without a large current account deficit or rise in inflation or interest rates, a rising inflow of external capital, accompanied by the RBI’s sterilizing these inflows and accumulating large reserves, even in the face of low inflation. We offer a critique of some previous analyses, and some models that are suggestive of how real and monetary factors might be integrated in providing a firmer grounding for the policy debates current in India.foreign capital, sterilization, absorption, crowding out, inflation, growth

As the Century Turns: Analytics, Empirics and Politics of Development

The paper celebrates John Fei's life and contributions to economics by viewing them in the context of recent theoretical and empirical literature on the economics and politics of growth. It summarizes the lessons from the literature and development experience since the end of the second world war on the roles of the state, markets and other institutions in the development process. It highlights a major lesson, on which there is substantial agreement if not a consensus, on the importance of openness to foreign trade, technologies and capital flows to growth and on the importance of participatory democracy for political sustainability of growth-promoting policies