Assessing the significance of changes in ENSO amplitude using variance metrics

© Copyright 2014 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or [email protected] variance of time series records relating to ENSO, such as the interannual anomalies or bandpass filtered components of equatorial Pacific SST indices, provides one approach to quantifying changes in ENSO amplitude. Robust assessment of the significance of changes in amplitude defined in this way is, however, hampered by uncertainty regarding the sampling distributions of such variance metrics within an unforced climate system. The present study shows that the empirical constraints on these sampling distributions provided by a range of unforced CGCM simulations are consistent with the expected parametric form, suggesting that standard parametric testing strategies can be robustly applied, even in the case of the nonlinear ENSO system. Under such an approach, the sampling distribution of unforced relative changes in variance may be constrained by a single parameter τd: the value of which depends on the choice of method used to extract the ENSO-related component of time series variability. In the case of interannual anomaly records, the value of τd is also substantially dependent on the overall spectral properties of the climatic variable under consideration. In contrast, the τd value for bandpass filtered records can be conservatively constrained from the lower edge of the filter passband, allowing for the direct but robust assessment of the significance of relative changes in ENSO amplitude, regardless of the climatic variable under consideration. Example applications of this approach confirm marginally significant F-test p values for multidecadal changes in central Pacific instrumental SST variance and highly significant ones for centennial changes in central Pacific coral δ18O variance. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Fostering appropriate behaviour in rehabilitant orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus)

Rehabilitation centres in Indonesia and Malaysia accommodate displaced orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus and P. abelii) and aim to facilitate their release into the wild by developing in them the skills that are necessary for survival. Regular forest excursions are provided but their efficacy in improving learning of appropriate behaviours is unknown. We observed forty rehabilitating orangutans from the Orangutan Care and Quarantine Centre during three forest excursions each to determine whether their behaviour fostered the development of survival skills. In total 38% of their time was spent in locomotion, particularly quadrupedal arboreal travel (13%), walking (8%), climbing (7%) and vine-swinging (4%). 26.5% of their time was spent 5 m or more from the ground, at heights up to 25 m. Arboreal activities were more 2 common early in the excursions and interaction with c are-givers more common later (hour 1: 0.3% of time; hour 5: 0.9% of time). Animals of lower body weight were significantly more likely to engage in arboreal movement, locomotion in general, eating of bark and leaves, and social play, and less likely to eat insects. Those that had been at the Centre the longest were less likely to perform arboreal activities and significantly more likely to be found standing and at ground level, than those that were there for a shorter time. During this study, many forest food items were consumed, particularly leaves and fruit, but also invertebrates and bark. Little time was spent in sexual behaviour, tool use, nest building or socially-mediated learning, but social play occupied almost 6% of their time. We conclude that regular excursions into the forest are likely to assist in the development of locomotion and feeding skills for survival in rehabilitating orangutans, but special attention is needed to encourage nest building, social activities and arboreal activity. Animals least likely to benefit are heavy animals and those that have been captive for a long time

Inferring changes in ENSO amplitude from the variance of proxy records

One common approach to investigating past changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude is through quantifying the variance of ENSO-influenced proxy records. However, a component of the variance of all such proxies will reflect influences that are unrelated to the instrumental climatic indices from which modern ENSO amplitudes are defined. The unrelated component of proxy variance introduces a fundamental source of uncertainty to all such constraints on past ENSO amplitudes. Based on a simple parametric approach to modeling this uncertainty, we present guidelines for the magnitudes of proxy variance change required to robustly infer the following: (i) any change at all in ENSO amplitude and (ii) a change in ENSO amplitude that exceeds the plausible range of unforced variability. It is noted that more extreme changes in proxy variance are required to robustly infer decreases, as opposed to increases, in past ENSO amplitude from modern levels.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Conformism in the food processing techniques of white-faced capuchin monkeys (Cebus capucinus)

Researchers of “culture” have long been interested in the role of social learning in establishing patterns of behavioral variation in wild animals, but very few studies examine this issue using a developmental approach. This 7-year study examines the acquisition of techniques used to process Luehea candida fruits in a wild population of white-faced capuchin monkeys, Cebus capucinus, residing in and near Lomas Barbudal Biological Reserve, Costa Rica. The two techniques for extracting seeds (pounding or scrubbing) were approximately equal in efficiency, and subjects experimented with both techniques before settling on one technique—typically the one they most frequently observed. In a sample of 106 subjects that had already settled on a preferred technique, the females adopted the maternal technique significantly more often than expected by chance, but the males did not. Using a longitudinal approach, I examined the acquisition of Luehea processing techniques during the first 5 years of life. Regression analysis revealed that the technique most frequently observed (measured as proportion of Luehea processing bouts observed that used pounding as opposed to scrubbing) significantly predicted the technique adopted by female observers, particularly in the second year of life; the amount of impact of the observed technique on the practiced technique was somewhat less significant for male observers. These results held true for (a) observations of maternal technique only, (b) observations of technique used by all individuals other than the mother, and (c) observations of maternal and non-maternal techniques combined

An enigmatic hypoplastic defect of the maxillary lateral incisor in recent and fossil orangutans from Sumatra (Pongo abelii) and Borneo (Pongo pygmaeus)

Developmental dental pathologies provide insight into health of primates during ontogeny, and are particularly useful for elucidating the environment in which extant and extinct primates matured. Our aim is to evaluate whether the prevalence of an unusual dental defect on the mesiolabial enamel of the upper lateral incisor, thought to reflect dental crowding during maturation, is lesser in female orangutans, with their smaller teeth, than in males; and in Sumatran orangutans, from more optimal developmental habitats, than in those from Borneo. Our sample includes 49 Pongo pygmaeus (87 teeth), 21 P. abelii (38 teeth), Late Pleistocene paleo-orangutans from Sumatra and Vietnam (67 teeth), Late Miocene catarrhines Lufengpithecus lufengensis (2 teeth), and Anapithecus hernyaki (7 teeth). Methods include micro-CT scans, radiography, and dental metrics of anterior teeth. We observed fenestration between incisor crypts and marked crowding of unerupted crowns, which could allow tooth-to-tooth contact. Tooth size does not differ significantly in animals with or without the defect, implicating undergrowth of the jaw as the proximate cause of dental crowding and defect presence. Male orangutans from both islands show more defects than do females. The defect is significantly more common in Bornean orangutans (71 %) compared to Sumatran (29 %). Prevalence among fossil forms falls between these extremes, except that all five individual Anapithecus show one or both incisors with the defect. We conclude that maxillary lateral incisor defect is a common developmental pathology of apes that is minimized in optimal habitats and that such evidence can be used to infer habitat quality in extant and fossil apes

Densities of Bornean orang‐utans ( Pongo pygmaeus morio ) in heavily degraded forest and oil palm plantations in Sabah, Borneo

The conversion of forest to agriculture continues to contribute to the loss and fragmentation of remaining orang‐utan habitat. There are still few published estimates of orang‐utan densities in these heavily modified agricultural areas to inform range‐wide population assessments and conservation strategies. In addition, little is known about what landscape features promote orang‐utan habitat use. Using indirect nest count methods, we implemented surveys and estimated population densities of the Northeast Bornean orang‐utan (Pongo pygmaeus morio) across the continuous logged forest and forest remnants in a recently salvage‐logged area and oil palm plantations in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. We then assessed the influence of landscape features and forest structural metrics obtained from LiDAR data on estimates of orang‐utan density. Recent salvage logging appeared to have a little short‐term effect on orang‐utan density (2.35 ind/km 2), which remained similar to recovering logged forest nearby (2.32 ind/km 2). Orang‐utans were also present in remnant forest patches in oil palm plantations, but at significantly lower numbers (0.82 ind/km 2) than nearby logged forest and salvage‐logged areas. Densities were strongly influenced by variation in canopy height but were not associated with other potential covariates. Our findings suggest that orang‐utans currently exist, at least in the short‐term, within human‐modified landscapes, providing that remnant forest patches remain. We urge greater recognition of the role that these degraded habitats can have in supporting orang‐utan populations, and that future range‐wide analyses and conservation strategies better incorporate data from human‐modified landscapes

HORYZONS trial: protocol for a randomised controlled trial of a moderated online social therapy to maintain treatment effects from first-episode psychosis services.

INTRODUCTION: Specialised early intervention services have demonstrated improved outcomes in first-episode psychosis (FEP); however, clinical gains may not be sustained after patients are transferred to regular care. Moreover, many patients with FEP remain socially isolated with poor functional outcomes. To address this, our multidisciplinary team has developed a moderated online social media therapy (HORYZONS) designed to enhance social functioning and maintain clinical gains from specialist FEP services. HORYZONS merges: (1) peer-to-peer social networking; (2) tailored therapeutic interventions; (3) expert and peer-moderation; and (4) new models of psychological therapy (strengths and mindfulness-based interventions) targeting social functioning. The aim of this trial is to determine whether following 2 years of specialised support and 18-month online social media-based intervention (HORYZONS) is superior to 18 months of regular care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study is a single-blind randomised controlled trial. The treatment conditions include HORYZONS plus treatment as usual (TAU) or TAU alone. We recruited 170 young people with FEP, aged 16-27 years, in clinical remission and nearing discharge from Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre, Melbourne. The study includes four assessment time points, namely, baseline, 6-month, 12-month and 18-month follow-up. The study is due for completion in July 2018 and included a 40-month recruitment period and an 18-month treatment phase. The primary outcome is social functioning at 18 months. Secondary outcome measures include rate of hospital admissions, cost-effectiveness, vocational status, depression, social support, loneliness, self-esteem, self-efficacy, anxiety, psychological well-being, satisfaction with life, quality of life, positive and negative psychotic symptoms and substance use. Social functioning will be also assessed in real time through our Smartphone Ecological Momentary Assessment tool. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Melbourne Health Human Research Ethics Committee (2013.146) provided ethics approval for this study. Findings will be made available through scientific journals and forums and to the public via social media and the Orygen website. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12614000009617; Pre-results

Recent Surveys in the Forests of Ulu Segama Malua, Sabah, Malaysia, Show That Orang-utans (P. p. morio) Can Be Maintained in Slightly Logged Forests

BACKGROUND: Today the majority of wild great ape populations are found outside of the network of protected areas in both Africa and Asia, therefore determining if these populations are able to survive in forests that are exploited for timber or other extractive uses and how this is managed, is paramount for their conservation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In 2007, the "Kinabatangan Orang-utan Conservation Project" (KOCP) conducted aerial and ground surveys of orang-utan (Pongo pygmaeus morio) nests in the commercial forest reserves of Ulu Segama Malua (USM) in eastern Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Compared with previous estimates obtained in 2002, our recent data clearly shows that orang-utan populations can be maintained in forests that have been lightly and sustainably logged. However, forests that are heavily logged or subjected to fast, successive coupes that follow conventional extraction methods, exhibit a decline in orang-utan numbers which will eventually result in localized extinction (the rapid extraction of more than 100 m(3) ha(-1) of timber led to the crash of one of the surveyed sub-populations). Nest distribution in the forests of USM indicates that orang-utans leave areas undergoing active disturbance and take momentarily refuge in surrounding forests that are free of human activity, even if these forests are located above 500 m asl. Displaced individuals will then recolonize the old-logged areas after a period of time, depending on availability of food sources in the regenerating areas. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: These results indicate that diligent planning prior to timber extraction and the implementation of reduced-impact logging practices can potentially be compatible with great ape conservation