Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?

We apply both classical and Bayesian econometric methods to characterize the dynamic behavior of inflation for twelve industrial countries over the period 1984-2003, using four different price indices for each country. In particular, we estimate a univariate autoregressive (AR) model for each series, and consider the possibility of a structural break at an unknown date. For many of these countries, we find strong evidence for a break in the intercept of the AR equation in the late 1980s or early 1990s. Allowing for a break in intercept, the inflation measures generally exhibit relatively low inflation persistence. Evidently, high inflation persistence is not an inherent characteristic of industrial economies.Inflation (Finance)

Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?

We apply both classical and Bayesian econometric methods to characterize the dynamic behavior of inflation for twelve industrial countries over the period 1984-2003, using four different price indices for each country. In particular, we estimate a univariate autoregressive (AR) model for each series, and consider the possibility of a structural break at an unknown date. For many of these countries, we find strong evidence for a break in the intercept of the AR equation in the late 1980s or early 1990s. Allowing for a break in intercept, the inflation measures generally exhibit relatively low inflation persistence. Evidently, high inflation persistence is not an inherent characteristic of industrial economies. JEL Classification: C11, C22, E31Bayesian econometrics, Inflation Dynamics, largest autoregressive root

The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting

Macroeconomics ; Inflation (Finance)

Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes

We find evidence that adopting an explicit inflation objective plays a role in anchoring long-run inflation expectations and in reducing the intrinsic persistence of inflation. For the period 1994-2003, private-sector long-run inflation forecasts exhibit significant correlation with lagged inflation for a number of industrial economies, including the United States. In contrast, this correlation is largely absent for the five countries that maintained explicit inflation objectives over this period, indicating that these central banks have been reasonably successful in delinking expectations from realized inflation. We also show that the null hypothesis of a random walk in core CPI inflation can be clearly rejected for four of these five countries, but not for most of the other industrial countries. Finally, we provide some evidence concerning the initial effects of the adoption of explicit inflation objectives in a number of emerging-market economies. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58Consensus Forecasts, inflation expectations, inflation persistence

Initial experiments concerning quantum information processing in rare-earth-ion doped crystals

In this paper initial experiments towards constructing simple quantum gates in a solid state material are presented. Instead of using specially tailored materials, the aim is to select a subset of randomly distributed ions in the material, which have the interaction necessary to control each other and therefore can be used to do quantum logic operations. The experimental results demonstrate that part of an inhomogeneously broadened absorption line can be selected as a qubit and that a subset of ions in the material can control the resonance frequency of other ions. This opens the way for the construction of quantum gates in rare-earth-ion doped crystals.Comment: 24 pages, including 12 figure

Orbital roulette: a new method of gravity estimation from observed motions

The traditional way of estimating the gravitational field from observed motions of test objects is based on the virial relation between their kinetic and potential energy. We find a more efficient method. It is based on the natural presumption that the objects are observed at a random moment of time and therefore have random orbital time phases. The proposed estimator, which we call "orbital roulette", checks the randomness of the phases. The method has the following advantages: (1) It estimates accurately Keplerian (point-mass) potentials as well as non-Keplerian potentials where the unknown gravitating mass is distributed in space. (2) It is a complete statistical estimator: it checks a trial potential and accepts it or rules it out with a certain significance level; the best-fit measurement is thus supplemented with error bars at any confidence level. (3) It needs no a priori assumptions about the distribution of orbital parameters of the test bodies. We test our estimator with Monte-Carlo-generated motions and demonstrate its efficiency. Useful applications include the Galactic Center, dark-matter halo of the Galaxy, and clusters of stars or galaxies.Comment: 30 pages, accepted to Ap

Blind Normalization of Speech From Different Channels

We show how to construct a channel-independent representation of speech that has propagated through a noisy reverberant channel. This is done by blindly rescaling the cepstral time series by a non-linear function, with the form of this scale function being determined by previously encountered cepstra from that channel. The rescaled form of the time series is an invariant property of it in the following sense: it is unaffected if the time series is transformed by any time-independent invertible distortion. Because a linear channel with stationary noise and impulse response transforms cepstra in this way, the new technique can be used to remove the channel dependence of a cepstral time series. In experiments, the method achieved greater channel-independence than cepstral mean normalization, and it was comparable to the combination of cepstral mean normalization and spectral subtraction, despite the fact that no measurements of channel noise or reverberations were required (unlike spectral subtraction).Comment: 25 pages, 7 figure