The impact of the rate prior on Bayesian estimation of divergence times with multiple Loci.

Bayesian methods provide a powerful way to estimate species divergence times by combining information from molecular sequences with information from the fossil record. With the explosive increase of genomic data, divergence time estimation increasingly uses data of multiple loci (genes or site partitions). Widely used computer programs to estimate divergence times use independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) priors on the substitution rates for different loci. The i.i.d. prior is problematic. As the number of loci (L) increases, the prior variance of the average rate across all loci goes to zero at the rate 1/L. As a consequence, the rate prior dominates posterior time estimates when many loci are analyzed, and if the rate prior is misspecified, the estimated divergence times will converge to wrong values with very narrow credibility intervals. Here we develop a new prior on the locus rates based on the Dirichlet distribution that corrects the problematic behavior of the i.i.d. prior. We use computer simulation and real data analysis to highlight the differences between the old and new priors. For a dataset for six primate species, we show that with the old i.i.d. prior, if the prior rate is too high (or too low), the estimated divergence times are too young (or too old), outside the bounds imposed by the fossil calibrations. In contrast, with the new Dirichlet prior, posterior time estimates are insensitive to the rate prior and are compatible with the fossil calibrations. We re-analyzed a phylogenomic data set of 36 mammal species and show that using many fossil calibrations can alleviate the adverse impact of a misspecified rate prior to some extent. We recommend the use of the new Dirichlet prior in Bayesian divergence time estimation. [Bayesian inference, divergence time, relaxed clock, rate prior, partition analysis.].This work was supported by Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), UK, grant BB/J009709/1. Z.Y. is a Royal Society Wolfson Merit award holder. T.Z. is supported by Natural Science Foundation of China (NSF) grants (31301093, 11301294 and 11201224)

Final state interaction in D+→K−π+π+D^+\to K^-\pi^+\pi^+ with KπK\pi I=1/2 and 3/2 channels

The final state interaction contribution to $D^+$ decays is computed for the $K^-\pi^+\pi^+$ channel within a light-front relativistic three-body model for the final state interaction. The rescattering process between the kaon and two pions in the decay channel is considered. The off-shell decay amplitude is a solution of a four-dimensional Bethe-Salpeter equation, which is decomposed in a Faddeev form. The projection onto the light-front of the coupled set of integral equations is performed via a quasi-potential approach. The S-wave $K\pi$ interaction is introduced in the resonant isospin $1/2$ and the non-resonant isospin $3/2$ channels. The numerical solution of the light-front tridimensional inhomogeneous integral equations for the Faddeev components of the decay amplitude is performed perturbatively. The loop-expansion converges fast, and the three-loop contribution can be neglected in respect to the two-loop results for the practical application. The dependence on the model parameters in respect to the input amplitude at the partonic level is exploited and the phase found in the experimental analysis, is fitted with an appropriate choice of the real weights of the isospin components of the partonic amplitude. The data suggests a small mixture of total isospin $5/2$ to the dominant $3/2$ one. The modulus of the unsymmetrized decay amplitude, which presents a deep valley and a following increase for $K\pi$ masses above $1.5$ GeV, is fairly reproduced. This suggests the assignment of the quantum numbers $0^+$ to the isospin 1/2 $K^*(1630)$ resonance

Micelle-mediated method for simultaneous determination of ascorbic acid and uric acid by differential pulse voltammetry

The present work describes an analytical methodology for simultaneous determination of ascorbic acid (AA) and uric acid (UA) by differential pulse voltammetry employing the cationic surfactant, cetylpyridinium chloride. Differential pulse voltammetry measurements revealed that the cationic micellar media may separate the oxidation peak potentials of AA and UA present in the same solution by about 282 mV, which is enough to determine both species simultaneously. As in pH 7.0 the AA is more ionized than UA, its electrostatic attraction towards the cationic micelles formed onto the surface of glassy carbon electrode is higher, therefore, promoting a decrease in the overpotential and increasing the electron transfer rate. Calibration curves to AA and UA in the concentration range from 4.70 up to 220 µmol L-1 and 0.50 up to 110 µmol L-1 were built. The proposed methodology was applied for the simultaneous determination of AA and UA in human urine samples

Solvency II - An important case in Applied VaR

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an extremely popular risk measure and many financial companies have successfully used it to manage their risks. Recent developments towards a general single European financial regulation, lead to a great increase in the use of VaR. At least, for European Bank and Insurance industry, VaR is no longer an optional risk management tool, but it became mandatory. In this chapter we focus on the Insurance business and discuss the use of VaR as it has been proposed in the context of the Solvency II (undergoing) negotiations. Our goals are, on the one hand, to present the underlying assumptions of the models that have been proposed in the Quantitative Impact Studies (QIS) and, on the other hand, to suggest alternative VaR implementations, based upon estimation methods and firm specific characteristics. Our suggestions may be used to develop internal models as suggested in Solvency II context. Finally, we analyze the case a of Portuguese insurer operating in the motor branch and compare QIS and internal model VaR implementations. In our concrete application, (one year horizon) capital requirements are similar under the two alternatives, allowing us to conclude for the robustness of the models proposed in QIS.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Avaliação de teste clonal de eucaliptos multiespécies em Mato Grosso do Sul.

O delineamento experimental consistiu em blocos completos casualizados, com 42 tratamentos (23 clones de E. saligna, nove de E. benthamii x E. dunnii, sete de E. urophylla, um de E. grandis, um de E. urophylla x E. grandis e um de E. grandis x E. camaldulensis), três repetições e parcelas quadradas de 25 plantas, em espaçamento de 3 m x 3 m

Avaliação de progênies de Eucalyptus crebra no norte do Estado de Goiás.

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Ising-type Magnetic Anisotropy in CePd2_2As2_2

We investigated the anisotropic magnetic properties of CePd$_2$As$_2$ by magnetic, thermal and electrical transport studies. X-ray diffraction confirmed the tetragonal ThCr$_2$Si$_2$-type structure and the high-quality of the single crystals. Magnetisation and magnetic susceptibility data taken along the different crystallographic directions evidence a huge crystalline electric field (CEF) induced Ising-type magneto-crystalline anisotropy with a large $c$-axis moment and a small in-plane moment at low temperature. A detailed CEF analysis based on the magnetic susceptibility data indicates an almost pure $\langle\pm5/2 \rvert$ CEF ground-state doublet with the dominantly $\langle\pm3/2 \rvert$ and the $\langle\pm1/2 \rvert$ doublets at 290 K and 330 K, respectively. At low temperature, we observe a uniaxial antiferromagnetic (AFM) transition at $T_N=14.7$ K with the crystallographic $c$-direction being the magnetic easy-axis. The magnetic entropy gain up to $T_N$ reaches almost $R\ln2$ indicating localised $4f$-electron magnetism without significant Kondo-type interactions. Below $T_N$, the application of a magnetic field along the $c$-axis induces a metamagnetic transition from the AFM to a field-polarised phase at $\mu_0H_{c0}=0.95$ T, exhibiting a text-book example of a spin-flip transition as anticipated for an Ising-type AFM.Comment: 9 Pages, 8 figure