Emulating IPCC AR4 atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models for projecting global-mean, hemispheric and land/ocean temperatures: MAGICC 6.0

International audienceCurrent scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models, named "CMIP3" and "C4MIP", respectively. Despite their tremendous value for the scientific community and policy makers alike, there are some difficulties in interpreting the results. For example, key radiative forcings have not been considered or standardized in the majority of AOGCMs integrations and carbon cycle runs. Furthermore, the AOGCM analysis of plausible emission pathways was restricted to only three SRES scenarios. This study attempts to address these issues. We present an updated version of MAGICC, the simple carbon cycle-climate model used in past IPCC Assessment Reports with enhanced representation of time-varying climate sensitivities, carbon cycle feedbacks, aerosol forcings and ocean heat uptake characteristics. This new version of MAGICC (6.0) is successfully calibrated against the higher complexity AOGCM and carbon cycle models. Parameterizations of MAGICC 6.0 are provided. Previous MAGICC versions and emulations shown in IPCC AR4 (WG1, Fig. 10.26, page 803) yielded, in average, a 10% larger global-mean temperature increase over the 21st century compared to the AOGCMs. The reasons for this difference are discussed. The emulations presented here using MAGICC 6.0 match the mean AOGCM responses to within 2.2% for the SRES scenarios. This enhanced emulation skill is due to: the comparison on a "like-with-like" basis using AOGCM-specific subsets of forcings, a new calibration procedure, as well as the fact that the updated simple climate model can now successfully emulate some of the climate-state dependent effective climate sensitivities of AOGCMs. The mean diagnosed effective climate sensitivities of the AOGCMs is 2.88°C, about 0.33°C cooler than the reported slab ocean climate sensitivities. Finally, we examine the combined climate system and carbon cycle emulations for the complete range of IPCC SRES emission scenarios and some lower mitigation pathways

Proportion Regulation in Globally Coupled Nonlinear Systems

As a model of proportion regulation in differentiation process of biological system, globally coupled activator-inhibitor systems are studied. Formation and destabilization of one and two cluster state are predicted analytically. Numerical simulations show that the proportion of units of clusters is chosen within a finite range and it is selected depend on the initial condition.Comment: 11 pages (revtex format) and 5 figures (PostScript)

Melarsoprol cyclodextrin inclusion complexes as promising oral candidates for the treatment of human African trypanosomiasis

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), or sleeping sickness, results from infection with the protozoan parasites <i>Trypanosoma brucei</i> (<i>T.b.</i>) <i>gambiense</i> or <i>T.b.rhodesiense</i> and is invariably fatal if untreated. There are 60 million people at risk from the disease throughout sub-Saharan Africa. The infection progresses from the haemolymphatic stage where parasites invade the blood, lymphatics and peripheral organs, to the late encephalitic stage where they enter the central nervous system (CNS) to cause serious neurological disease. The trivalent arsenical drug melarsoprol (Arsobal) is the only currently available treatment for CNS-stage <i>T.b.rhodesiense</i> infection. However, it must be administered intravenously due to the presence of propylene glycol solvent and is associated with numerous adverse reactions. A severe post-treatment reactive encephalopathy occurs in about 10% of treated patients, half of whom die. Thus melarsoprol kills 5% of all patients receiving it. Cyclodextrins have been used to improve the solubility and reduce the toxicity of a wide variety of drugs. We therefore investigated two melarsoprol cyclodextrin inclusion complexes; melarsoprol hydroxypropyl-͎-cyclodextrin and melarsoprol randomly-methylated-β-cyclodextrin. We found that these compounds retain trypanocidal properties <i>in vitro</i> and cure CNS-stage murine infections when delivered orally, once per day for 7-days, at a dosage of 0.05 mmol/kg. No overt signs of toxicity were detected. Parasite load within the brain was rapidly reduced following treatment onset and magnetic resonance imaging showed restoration of normal blood-brain barrier integrity on completion of chemotherapy. These findings strongly suggest that complexed melarsoprol could be employed as an oral treatment for CNS-stage HAT, delivering considerable improvements over current parenteral chemotherapy

Identification of sVSG117 as an immunodiagnostic antigen and evaluation of a dual-antigen lateral flow test for the diagnosis of human african trypanosomiasis

The diagnosis of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense relies mainly on the Card Agglutination Test for Trypanosomiasis (CATT). There is no immunodiagnostic for HAT caused by T. b. rhodesiense. Our principle aim was to develop a prototype lateral flow test that might be an improvement on CATT.Pools of infection and control sera were screened against four different soluble form variant surface glycoproteins (sVSGs) by ELISA and one, sVSG117, showed particularly strong immunoreactivity to pooled infection sera. Using individual sera, sVSG117 was shown to be able to discriminate between T. b. gambiense infection and control sera by both ELISA and lateral flow test. The sVSG117 antigen was subsequently used with a previously described recombinant diagnostic antigen, rISG65, to create a dual-antigen lateral flow test prototype. The latter was used blind in a virtual field trial of 431 randomized infection and control sera from the WHO HAT Specimen Biobank.In the virtual field trial, using two positive antigen bands as the criterion for infection, the sVSG117 and rISG65 dual-antigen lateral flow test prototype showed a sensitivity of 97.3% (95% CI: 93.3 to 99.2) and a specificity of 83.3% (95% CI: 76.4 to 88.9) for the detection of T. b. gambiense infections. The device was not as good for detecting T. b. rhodesiense infections using two positive antigen bands as the criterion for infection, with a sensitivity of 58.9% (95% CI: 44.9 to 71.9) and specificity of 97.3% (95% CI: 90.7 to 99.7). However, using one or both positive antigen band(s) as the criterion for T. b. rhodesiense infection improved the sensitivity to 83.9% (95% CI: 71.7 to 92.4) with a specificity of 85.3% (95% CI: 75.3 to 92.4). These results encourage further development of the dual-antigen device for clinical use

Observation of electron-antineutrino disappearance at Daya Bay

The Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment has measured a non-zero value for the neutrino mixing angle $\theta_{13}$ with a significance of 5.2 standard deviations. Antineutrinos from six 2.9 GW$_{\rm th}$ reactors were detected in six antineutrino detectors deployed in two near (flux-weighted baseline 470 m and 576 m) and one far (1648 m) underground experimental halls. With a 43,000 ton-GW_{\rm th}-day livetime exposure in 55 days, 10416 (80376) electron antineutrino candidates were detected at the far hall (near halls). The ratio of the observed to expected number of antineutrinos at the far hall is $R=0.940\pm 0.011({\rm stat}) \pm 0.004({\rm syst})$. A rate-only analysis finds $\sin^22\theta_{13}=0.092\pm 0.016({\rm stat})\pm0.005({\rm syst})$ in a three-neutrino framework.Comment: 5 figures. Version to appear in Phys. Rev. Let

Vaccination against trypanosomiasis: Can it be done or is the trypanosome truly the ultimate immune destroyer and escape artist?

To date, human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) still threatens millions of people throughout sub-Sahara Africa, and new approaches to disease prevention and treatment remain a priority. It is commonly accepted that HAT is fatal unless treatment is provided. However, despite the well-described general symptoms of disease progression during distinct stages of the infection, leading to encephalitic complications, coma and death, a substantial body of evidence has been reported suggesting that natural acquired immunity could occur. Hence, if under favorable conditions natural infections can lead to correct immune activation and immune protection against HAT, the development of an effective anti-HAT vaccine should remain a central goal in the fight against this disease.<br /> In this review, we will (1) discuss the vaccine candidates that have been proposed over the past years, (2) highlight the main obstacles that an efficient anti-trypanosomiasis vaccine needs to overcome and (3) critically reflect on the validity of the widely used murine model for HAT

A new measurement of antineutrino oscillation with the full detector configuration at Daya Bay

We report a new measurement of electron antineutrino disappearance using the fully-constructed Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment. The final two of eight antineutrino detectors were installed in the summer of 2012. Including the 404 days of data collected from October 2012 to November 2013 resulted in a total exposure of 6.9$\times$10$^5$ GW$_{\rm th}$-ton-days, a 3.6 times increase over our previous results. Improvements in energy calibration limited variations between detectors to 0.2%. Removal of six $^{241}$Am-$^{13}$C radioactive calibration sources reduced the background by a factor of two for the detectors in the experimental hall furthest from the reactors. Direct prediction of the antineutrino signal in the far detectors based on the measurements in the near detectors explicitly minimized the dependence of the measurement on models of reactor antineutrino emission. The uncertainties in our estimates of $\sin^{2}2\theta_{13}$ and $|\Delta m^2_{ee}|$ were halved as a result of these improvements. Analysis of the relative antineutrino rates and energy spectra between detectors gave $\sin^{2}2\theta_{13} = 0.084\pm0.005$ and $|\Delta m^{2}_{ee}|= (2.42\pm0.11) \times 10^{-3}$ eV$^2$ in the three-neutrino framework.Comment: Updated to match final published versio

New measurement of θ13\theta_{13} via neutron capture on hydrogen at Daya Bay

This article reports an improved independent measurement of neutrino mixing angle $\theta_{13}$ at the Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment. Electron antineutrinos were identified by inverse $\beta$-decays with the emitted neutron captured by hydrogen, yielding a data-set with principally distinct uncertainties from that with neutrons captured by gadolinium. With the final two of eight antineutrino detectors installed, this study used 621 days of data including the previously reported 217-day data set with six detectors. The dominant statistical uncertainty was reduced by 49%. Intensive studies of the cosmogenic muon-induced $^9$Li and fast neutron backgrounds and the neutron-capture energy selection efficiency, resulted in a reduction of the systematic uncertainty by 26%. The deficit in the detected number of antineutrinos at the far detectors relative to the expected number based on the near detectors yielded $\sin^22\theta_{13} = 0.071 \pm 0.011$ in the three-neutrino-oscillation framework. The combination of this result with the gadolinium-capture result is also reported.Comment: 26 pages, 23 figure

Using detergent to enhance detection sensitivity of African trypanosomes in human CSF and blood by Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification (LAMP)

&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Background:&lt;/b&gt; The loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay, with its advantages of simplicity, rapidity and cost effectiveness, has evolved as one of the most sensitive and specific methods for the detection of a broad range of pathogenic microorganisms including African trypanosomes. While many LAMP-based assays are sufficiently sensitive to detect DNA well below the amount present in a single parasite, the detection limit of the assay is restricted by the number of parasites present in the volume of sample assayed; i.e. 1 per µL or 103 per mL. We hypothesized that clinical sensitivities that mimic analytical limits based on parasite DNA could be approached or even obtained by simply adding detergent to the samples prior to LAMP assay.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Methodology/Principal Findings:&lt;/b&gt; For proof of principle we used two different LAMP assays capable of detecting 0.1 fg genomic DNA (0.001 parasite). The assay was tested on dilution series of intact bloodstream form Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in human cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) or blood with or without the addition of the detergent Triton X-100 and 60 min incubation at ambient temperature. With human CSF and in the absence of detergent, the LAMP detection limit for live intact parasites using 1 µL of CSF as the source of template was at best 103 parasites/mL. Remarkably, detergent enhanced LAMP assay reaches sensitivity about 100 to 1000-fold lower; i.e. 10 to 1 parasite/mL. Similar detergent-mediated increases in LAMP assay analytical sensitivity were also found using DNA extracted from filter paper cards containing blood pretreated with detergent before card spotting or blood samples spotted on detergent pretreated cards.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Conclusions/Significance:&lt;/b&gt; This simple procedure for the enhanced detection of live African trypanosomes in biological fluids by LAMP paves the way for the adaptation of LAMP for the economical and sensitive diagnosis of other protozoan parasites and microorganisms that cause diseases that plague the developing world.&lt;/p&gt