A Mathematical Model for Interpretable Clinical Decision Support with Applications in Gynecology

Over time, methods for the development of clinical decision support (CDS) systems have evolved from interpretable and easy-to-use scoring systems to very complex and non-interpretable mathematical models. In order to accomplish effective decision support, CDS systems should provide information on how the model arrives at a certain decision. To address the issue of incompatibility between performance, interpretability and applicability of CDS systems, this paper proposes an innovative model structure, automatically leading to interpretable and easily applicable models. The resulting models can be used to guide clinicians when deciding upon the appropriate treatment, estimating patient-specific risks and to improve communication with patients.We propose the interval coded scoring (ICS) system, which imposes that the effect of each variable on the estimated risk is constant within consecutive intervals. The number and position of the intervals are automatically obtained by solving an optimization problem, which additionally performs variable selection. The resulting model can be visualised by means of appealing scoring tables and color bars. ICS models can be used within software packages, in smartphone applications, or on paper, which is particularly useful for bedside medicine and home-monitoring. The ICS approach is illustrated on two gynecological problems: diagnosis of malignancy of ovarian tumors using a dataset containing 3,511 patients, and prediction of first trimester viability of pregnancies using a dataset of 1,435 women. Comparison of the performance of the ICS approach with a range of prediction models proposed in the literature illustrates the ability of ICS to combine optimal performance with the interpretability of simple scoring systems.The ICS approach can improve patient-clinician communication and will provide additional insights in the importance and influence of available variables. Future challenges include extensions of the proposed methodology towards automated detection of interaction effects, multi-class decision support systems, prognosis and high-dimensional data

Does Fiscal Decentralisation Foster Regional Investment in Productive Infrastructure?

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of revenue decentralization on the provision of infrastructure at the sub-national level. We estimate the effects of revenue decentralization and earmarked grant financing on the level of sub-national infrastructure investment in 20 European countries over the period 1990-2009. The results are interpreted in light of the predictions of the theory on fiscal federalism. We find that it is sub-national infrastructure investment that increases after revenue decentralization and not investment in redistribution. However, the effect of revenue decentralization is lower the higher the use of earmarked grants to fund infrastructure investment

Private Infrastructure Finance and Investment in Europe

This study discusses the structure and development of private infrastructure finance in Europe in a global context. It examines the contribution of private capital to the financing of infrastructure investment needs. A 'big picture' is created by putting the various financing instruments and investment vehicles into a simple frame, i.e. percentages of GDP. There is scope for the development of alternative financing arrangements (such as public-private partnerships) and investment vehicles (such as project bonds and suitable investment funds). However, the traditional ways of corporate (and public) capital expenditure as well bank lending, need to keep working in Europe. Institutional investors can play a bigger role as a source of finance but expectations should be realistic. There are a number of barriers in place, regulatory and otherwise, that need to be worked on

Study of e+e−→ppˉe^+e^- \rightarrow p\bar{p} in the vicinity of ψ(3770)\psi(3770)

Using 2917 $\rm{pb}^{-1}$ of data accumulated at 3.773~$\rm{GeV}$, 44.5~$\rm{pb}^{-1}$ of data accumulated at 3.65~$\rm{GeV}$ and data accumulated during a $\psi(3770)$ line-shape scan with the BESIII detector, the reaction $e^+e^-\rightarrow p\bar{p}$ is studied considering a possible interference between resonant and continuum amplitudes. The cross section of $e^+e^-\rightarrow\psi(3770)\rightarrow p\bar{p}$, $\sigma(e^+e^-\rightarrow\psi(3770)\rightarrow p\bar{p})$, is found to have two solutions, determined to be ($0.059\pm0.032\pm0.012$) pb with the phase angle $\phi = (255.8\pm37.9\pm4.8)^\circ$ ($<$0.11 pb at the 90% confidence level), or $\sigma(e^+e^-\rightarrow\psi(3770)\rightarrow p\bar{p}) = (2.57\pm0.12\pm0.12$) pb with $\phi = (266.9\pm6.1\pm0.9)^\circ$ both of which agree with a destructive interference. Using the obtained cross section of $\psi(3770)\rightarrow p\bar{p}$, the cross section of $p\bar{p}\rightarrow \psi(3770)$, which is useful information for the future PANDA experiment, is estimated to be either ($9.8\pm5.7$) nb ($<17.2$ nb at 90% C.L.) or $(425.6\pm42.9)$ nb

Infrastructure Finance in Europe: Composition, Evolution and Crisis Impact

This article is the first attempt to compile comprehensive data on infrastructure finance in Europe. We decompose infrastructure finance by institutional sector (i.e. public versus private) into its main components, which consist of traditionalpublic procurement, project finance and finance by the corporate sector, and analyse how the roles of the public and private sectors in financing infrastructure have evolved over time, especially during the recent economic and financial crisis. In contrast with government finance that is slightly up, private finance, in particular project finance through Public-Private Partnerships, has fallen substantially during the recent crisis, reversing, at least temporarily, the longer-term trend of more private and less public financing of infrastructure

Prospective external validation of the 'ovarian crescent sign' as a single ultrasound parameter to distinguish between benign and malignant adnexal pathology

Objective To determine the sensitivity and specificity of the 'ovarian crescent sign' (OCS) - a rim of normal ovarian tissue seen adjacent to an ipsilateral adnexal mass as a sonographic feature to discriminate between benign and malignant adnexal masses. Methods The patients included were a subgroup of patients participating in the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) Phase 2 study, which is an international multicenter study. The subgroup comprised 1938 patients, with an adnexal mass, recruited from 19 ultrasound centers in different countries. All patients were scanned using the same standardized ultrasound protocol. Information on more than 40 demographic and ultrasound variables were collected, but the evaluation of the OCS was optional. Only patients from centers that had evaluated the OCS in >= 90% of their cases were included. The gold standard was the histological diagnosis of the adnexal mass. The ability of the OCS to discriminate between borderline or invasively malignant vs. benign adnexal masses, as well as between invasively malignant vs. other (benign and borderline) tumors, was determined and compared with the performance of subjective evaluation of ultrasound findings by the ultrasound examiner. Results The OCS was evaluated in 1377 adnexal masses from 12 centers, 938 (68%) masses being benign, 86 (6%) borderline, 305 (22%) primary invasive and 48 (3%) metastases. The OCS was present in 398 (42%) of 938 benign masses, in 14 (16%) of 86 borderline tumors, in 18 (6%) of 305 primary invasive tumors (one malignant struma ovarii, one uterine clear cell adenocarcinoma and 16 epithelial carcinomas, i.e. four Stage I and 12 Stage II-IV) and in two (4%) of 48 ovarian metastases. Hence, the sensitivity and specificity for absent OCS to identify a malignancy was 92% and 42%, respectively, and the positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR-, respectively) were 1.60 and 0.18. Subjective impression performed significantly better than the OCS. Sensitivity and specificity were 90% and 92%, respectively, LR+ was 11.0 and LR- was 0.10. For discrimination between invasive vs. benign or borderline tumors, the sensitivity for absent OCS was 94%, the specificity was 40%, the LR+ was 1.58 and the LR- was 0.14. Conclusion This study confirms previous reports that the presence of the OCS decreases the likelihood of invasive malignancy in adnexal masses. However it is a poor discriminator between benign and malignant adnexal masses. Copyright (C) 2010 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd