2012 Haida Gwaii Quake: Insight Into Cascadia\u27s Subduction Extent

The limits of Cascadia were first defined to contain nearly the entire margin of the Pacific Northwest, from Cape Mendocino through the Alaska Panhandle [Schuchert, 1910; Schuchert and Barrell, 1914]. Since that time, the boundary of Cascadia has shrunk to become essentially synonymous with the region where the Juan de Fuca plate subducts beneath the North American plate. As a consequence, seismic hazard assessments in the Pacific Northwest have conventionally focused on the potential for large megathrust earthquakes along the interface of the Juan de Fuca and North American plates

Transient Detection and Modeling of Continuous Geodetic Data

Transient surface deformation has been observed by continuously operating Global Positioning System stations in the Puget Sound area during the past decade. This surface deformation is associated with processes occurring on or near the subducting plate boundary between the Juan de Fuca and North American plates. This thesis is composed of two studies of transient deformation along the Cascadia plate margin and a discussion of the methodologies employed in these studies. We model one 7-week episode of transient deformation that occurred during 2003 beneath the Puget Sound area. Additionally, we utilize a combination of continuous Global Positioning System and seismic data to provide evidence for the occurrence of transient deformation in southern Cascadia. The remainder of the thesis focuses on the methodologies utilized in both identifying and modeling these episodes of transient deformation

A Catalog of Felt Intensity Data for 570 Earthquakes in India from 1636 to 2009

Eight thousand three hundred thirty-nine intensity observations have been evaluated for earthquakes that occurred on the Indian subcontinent and surrounding plate boundaries from the seventeenth century to the present. They characterize 570 earthquakes, more than 90% of which occurred in the past two centuries. The electronic supplement to this article lists these data using European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98) intensities with their geographic coordinates. We summarize these data graphically in the form of a spatially averaged intensity map for the subcontinent, a map that emphasizes the features of many previously published earthquake hazard maps for the Indian plate, but which more faithfully depicts regional amplification and attenuation. We also estimate the probable return time for future damaging shaking in five of India’s largest cities

Slip pulse and resonance of the Kathmandu basin during the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal

Detailed geodetic imaging of earthquake ruptures enhances our understanding of earthquake physics and associated ground shaking. The 25 April 2015 moment magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Gorkha, Nepal was the first large continental megathrust rupture to have occurred beneath a high-rate (5-hertz) Global Positioning System (GPS) network. We used GPS and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data to model the earthquake rupture as a slip pulse ~20 kilometers in width, ~6 seconds in duration, and with a peak sliding velocity of 1.1 meters per second, which propagated toward the Kathmandu basin at ~3.3 kilometers per second over ~140 kilometers. The smooth slip onset, indicating a large (~5-meter) slip-weakening distance, caused moderate ground shaking at high frequencies (\u3e1 hertz; peak ground acceleration, ~16% of Earth’s gravity) and minimized damage to vernacular dwellings. Whole-basin resonance at a period of 4 to 5 seconds caused the collapse of tall structures, including cultural artifacts

GPS constraints on interplate locking within the Makran subduction zone

The Makran subduction zone is one of the last convergent margins to be investigated using space-based geodesy. While there is a lack of historical and modern instrumentation in the region, a sparse sampling of continuous and campaign measurements over the past decade has allowed us to make the first estimates of convergence rates. We combine GPS measurements from 20 stations located in Iran, Pakistan and Oman along with hypocentral locations from the International Seismological Centre to create a preliminary 3-D estimate of the geometry of the megathrust, along with a preliminary fault-coupling model for the Makran subduction zone. Using a convergence rate which is strongly constrained by measurements from the incoming Arabia plate along with the backslip method of Savage, we find the Makran subduction zone appears to be locked to a depth of at least 38 km and accumulating strain.We also find evidence for a segmentation of plate coupling, with a 300 km long section of reduced plate coupling. The range of acceptable locking depths from our modelling and the 900 km along-strike length for the megathrust, makes the Makran subduction zone capable of earthquakes up to Mw = 8.8. In addition, we find evidence for slow-slip-like transient deformation events on two GPS stations. These observations are suggestive of transient deformation events observed in Cascadia, Japan and elsewhere

Intensity, Magnitude, Location, and Attenuation in India for Felt Earthquakes since 1762

A comprehensive, consistently interpreted new catalog of felt intensities for India (Martin and Szeliga, 2010, this issue) includes intensities for 570 earthquakes; instrumental magnitudes and locations are available for 100 of these events. We use the intensity values for 29 of the instrumentally recorded events to develop new intensity versus attenuation relations for the Indian subcontinent and the Himalayan region. We then use these relations to determine the locations and magnitudes of 234 historical events, using the method of Bakun and Wentworth (1997). For the remaining 336 events, intensity distributions are too sparse to determine magnitude or location. We evaluate magnitude and location accuracy of newly located events by comparing the instrumental- with the intensity-derived location for 29 calibration events, for which more than 15 intensity observations are available. With few exceptions, most intensity-derived locations lie within a fault length of the instrumentally determined location. For events in which the azimuthal distribution of intensities is limited, we conclude that the formal error bounds from the regression of Bakun and Wentworth (1997) do not reflect the true uncertainties.We also find that the regression underestimates the uncertainties of the location and magnitude of the 1819 Allah Bund earthquake, for which a location has been inferred from mapped surface deformation. Comparing our inferred attenuation relations to those developed for other regions, we find that attenuation for Himalayan events is comparable to intensity attenuation in California (Bakun and Wentworth, 1997), while intensity attenuation for cratonic events is higher than intensity attenuation reported for central/eastern North America (Bakun et al., 2003). Further, we present evidence that intensities of intraplate earthquakes have a nonlinear dependence on magnitude such that attenuation relations based largely on small-to-moderate earthquakes may significantly overestimate the magnitudes of historical earthquakes

Seismic slip deficit in the Kashmir Himalaya from GPS observations

GPS measurements in Kashmir Himalaya reveal rangenormal convergence of 11±1 mm/yr with dextral shear of 5±1 mm/yr. The transition from a fully locked 170 km wide décollement to the unrestrained descending Indian plate occurs at ~25 km depth over an ~23 km wide transition zone. The convergence rate is consistent with the lower bounds of geological estimates for the Main Frontal Thrust, Riasi, and Balapora fault systems, on which no surface slip has been reported in the past millennium. Of the 14 damaging Kashmir earthquakes since 1123, none may have exceeded Mw = 7.6. Therefore, either a seismic moment deficit equivalent to a Mw ≈ 8.7 earthquake exists or the historical earthquake magnitudes have been underestimated. Alternatively, these earthquakes have occurred on reverse faults in the Kashmir Valley, and the décollement has been recently inactive. Although this can reconcile the inferred and theoretical moment release, it is quantitatively inconsistent with observed fault slip in Kashmir

GPS Vertical Land Motion Corrections to Sea-Level Rise Estimates in the Pacific Northwest

We construct coastal Pacific Northwest profiles of vertical land motion (VLM) known to bias long-term tide-gauge measurements of sea-level rise (SLR) and use them to estimate absolute sea-level rise with respect to Earth’s center of mass. Multidecade GPS measurements at 47 coastal stations along the Cascadia subduction zone show VLM varies regionally but smoothly along the Pacific coast and inland Puget Sound with rates ranging from +4.9 to –1.2 mm/yr. Puget Sound VLM is characterized by uniform subsidence at relatively slow rates of +0.1 to –0.3 mm/yr. Uplift rates of 4.5 mm/yr persist along the western Olympic Peninsula of northwestern Washington State and decrease southward becoming nearly 0 mm/yr south of central coastal Washington through Cape Blanco, Oregon. South of Cape Blanco, uplift increases to 1–2 mm/yr, peaks at 4 mm/yr near Crescent City, California, and returns to zero at Cape Mendocino, California. Using various stochastic noise models, we estimate long-term (~50–100 yr) relative sea-level rise rates at 18 coastal Cascadia tide gauges and correct them for VLM. Uncorrected SLR rates are scattered, ranging between –2 mm/yr and + 5 mm/yr with mean 0:52±1:59 mm/yr, whereas correcting for VLM increases the mean value to 1.99 mm/yr and reduces the uncertainty to ±1:18 mm/yr, commensurate with, but approximately 17% higher than, twentieth century global mean

Interseismic strain accumulation along the western boundary of the Indian subcontinent

Despite an overall sinistral slip rate of approximately 3 cm/yr, few major earthquakes have occurred in the past 200 years along the Chaman fault system, the western boundary of the India Plate with the Eurasia Plate. GPS and InSAR data reported here indicate sinistral shear velocities of 8-17 mm/yr across the westernmost branches of the fault system, suggesting that a significant fraction of the plate boundary slip is distributed in the fold and fault belt to the east. At its southernmost on-land segment, near the triple junction between the Arabia, Eurasia, and India Plates, we find the velocity across the Ornach Nal fault is 15.1+13.4+16.9 mm/yr, with a locking depth probably less than 3 km. At latitude 30 degrees N near the town of Chaman, Pakistan, where a M6.5 earthquake occurred in 1892, the velocity is 8.5+6.8 +10.3 mm/yr and the fault is locked at approximately 3.4 km depth. At latitude 33 degrees N and further north, InSAR data indicate a velocity across the Chaman fault of 16.8±2.7 mm/yr. The width of the plate boundary varies from several km in the south where we observe approximately 2 mm/yr of convergence near the westernmost strike-slip faults, to a few hundreds of km in the north where we observe 6–9 mm/yr of convergence, and where the faulting becomes distinctly transpressional. The shallow locking depth along much of the transform system suggests that earthquakes larger than those that have occurred in the historical record would be unexpected, and that the recurrence interval of those earthquakes that have occurred is of the order of one or two centuries, similar in length to the known historical record

Southern Cascadia Episodic Slow Earthquakes

Continuous GPS and seismic data from northern California show that slow earthquakes periodically rupture the Gorda-North America plate interface within southern Cascadia. On average, these creep events have occurred every 10.9±1.2 months since at least 1998. Appearing as week-long GPS extensional transients that reverse secular forearc contraction, the data show a recurrence interval 22% shorter than slow events recognized to the north. Seismic tremor here accompanies the GPS reversals, correlated across as many as 5 northern California seismometers. Tremor occurs sporadically throughout the year, but increases in duration and intensity by a factor of about 10 simultaneous with the GPS reversals. Beneath west-central Oregon, three reversals are also apparent, but more stations are needed to confirm sporadic slip on the plate interface here. Together, these measurements suggest that slow earthquakes likely occur throughout the Cascadia subduction zone and add further evidence for the role of fault-fluid migration in controlling transient slow-slip events here