Election Briefing No 65: Europe and the October 2011 Polish parliamentary election

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The birth of a bi-polar system or a referendum on a polarising government? The October 2007 Polish parliamentary election

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Poland’s parliamentary crisis could reach a tipping point by mid-January

An occupation of the main legislative chamber and street demonstrations at the end of December, prompted by the exclusion of an opposition deputy following his protest against new parliamentary media rules, has precipitated a major political crisis in Poland. Aleks Szczerbiak writes that although the government has withdrawn its planned media regulations, the sit-in continued throughout Christmas with the opposition refusing to recognise the legality of a budget vote. The crisis has reached an impasse and could escalate when the legislature returns in mid-January with the possibility of rival government and opposition parliamentary sittings

Who really won Poland’s local elections?

Poland held local elections on 21 October, followed by a second round of voting on 4 November. The elections were billed as a key test for the country’s Law and Justice government. As Aleks Szczerbiak explains, the liberal-centrist opposition mobilised its core supporters in urban areas, winning high profile mayoral races, but Law and Justice won the more politically significant regional polls. He argues that unless the opposition can broaden its appeal and attract more voters in smaller towns and rural areas, the governing party remains on track to win next year’s parliamentary election

What are the prospects for Poland's radical right Confederation?

Poland's October election saw the unexpected success of a strongly pro-free market and nationalist radical right challenger to the ruling party. However, as Aleks Szczerbiak writes, the new grouping's youthful, anti-establishment core electorate is notoriously fickle, and its ideological eclecticism - and the presence of highly controversial personalities among its leaders - makes it an unstable political construct

Will Poland’s Law and Justice government respond to international pressure?

Poland is currently experiencing a constitutional crisis, as the ruling Law and Justice party has come under international pressure over its actions in relation to the country’s constitutional tribunal. There is little indication that the government will back down, but, as Aleks Szczerbiak points out, the crisis is forcing it to expend valuable time and political capital defending its position on the international stage

How will the European Commission triggering Article 7 affect Polish politics?

Last month Poland became the first EU member state to have an Article 7 rule of law procedure launched against it. Aleks Szczerbiak writes that while sanctions appear extremely unlikely, the domestic political impact will depend on whether Poles accept the opposition's argument that the government is isolating Poland internationally, or the ruling party's claim that it is defending national sovereignty against EU interference in the country’s internal affairs

Who will win Poland’s crucial presidential election?

Poland’s presidential election run-off is on a knife-edge. As Aleks Szczerbiak explains, incumbent Andrzej Duda won the first round convincingly and remains a narrow favourite as no second placed challenger has ever come from so far behind to win. But his liberal opponent has much greater potential to win over supporters of the defeated first round candidates

Why the 2015 presidential election in Poland could be closer than many expected

Poland will hold a presidential election on 10 May. Aleks Szczerbiak assesses the main contenders, noting that despite a shaky start to his campaign, the incumbent President Bronisław Komorowski remains a firm favourite to win. Nevertheless, the fact that he is projecting himself as a non-partisan candidate will limit the political momentum afforded to his party, Civic Platform, ahead of parliamentary elections later in the year

What does Law and Justice’s election victory in Poland mean for Europe?

Poland held parliamentary elections on 25 October, with the conservative Law and Justice party defeating the incumbent Civic Platform government. Aleks Szczerbiak assesses what the election result means for Poland’s relations with Europe. He writes that although the campaign was dominated by domestic issues, Law and Justice’s victory could herald a substantial shift in the country’s foreign policy. However, he notes that divisions between Polish parties on international affairs are often an extension of domestic politics by other means and experience suggests that the new government may be more Eurosceptic in its rhetoric than in practice