Election Briefing No 65: Europe and the October 2011 Polish parliamentary election

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The birth of a bi-polar system or a referendum on a polarising government? The October 2007 Polish parliamentary election

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Poland’s parliamentary crisis could reach a tipping point by mid-January

An occupation of the main legislative chamber and street demonstrations at the end of December, prompted by the exclusion of an opposition deputy following his protest against new parliamentary media rules, has precipitated a major political crisis in Poland. Aleks Szczerbiak writes that although the government has withdrawn its planned media regulations, the sit-in continued throughout Christmas with the opposition refusing to recognise the legality of a budget vote. The crisis has reached an impasse and could escalate when the legislature returns in mid-January with the possibility of rival government and opposition parliamentary sittings

Who really won Poland’s local elections?

Poland held local elections on 21 October, followed by a second round of voting on 4 November. The elections were billed as a key test for the country’s Law and Justice government. As Aleks Szczerbiak explains, the liberal-centrist opposition mobilised its core supporters in urban areas, winning high profile mayoral races, but Law and Justice won the more politically significant regional polls. He argues that unless the opposition can broaden its appeal and attract more voters in smaller towns and rural areas, the governing party remains on track to win next year’s parliamentary election

What are the prospects for Poland's radical right Confederation?

Poland's October election saw the unexpected success of a strongly pro-free market and nationalist radical right challenger to the ruling party. However, as Aleks Szczerbiak writes, the new grouping's youthful, anti-establishment core electorate is notoriously fickle, and its ideological eclecticism - and the presence of highly controversial personalities among its leaders - makes it an unstable political construct

Will Poland’s Law and Justice government respond to international pressure?

Poland is currently experiencing a constitutional crisis, as the ruling Law and Justice party has come under international pressure over its actions in relation to the country’s constitutional tribunal. There is little indication that the government will back down, but, as Aleks Szczerbiak points out, the crisis is forcing it to expend valuable time and political capital defending its position on the international stage

How will the European Commission triggering Article 7 affect Polish politics?

Last month Poland became the first EU member state to have an Article 7 rule of law procedure launched against it. Aleks Szczerbiak writes that while sanctions appear extremely unlikely, the domestic political impact will depend on whether Poles accept the opposition's argument that the government is isolating Poland internationally, or the ruling party's claim that it is defending national sovereignty against EU interference in the country’s internal affairs

Who will win Poland’s crucial presidential election?

Poland’s presidential election run-off is on a knife-edge. As Aleks Szczerbiak explains, incumbent Andrzej Duda won the first round convincingly and remains a narrow favourite as no second placed challenger has ever come from so far behind to win. But his liberal opponent has much greater potential to win over supporters of the defeated first round candidates

Intuition or grand plan? Explaining Andrzej Duda’s rise to prominence during the war in Ukraine

Polish President Andrzej Duda was already trying to become more assertive and independent when the Russian invasion of Ukraine gave him an opportunity to carve out a new role as a key regional player and unifying force in domestic politics, writes Aleks Szczerbiak. But he remains a loyal, if somewhat more autonomous, member of Poland’s governing camp, and much of the time is acting intuitively rather than on the basis of a coherent plan for remodelling the presidency

Law and Justice’s stunning victory in Poland reflected widespread disillusionment with the country’s ruling elite

What does the recent parliamentary election in Poland tell us about the country’s politics? Aleks Szczerbiak writes that the victory secured by the right-wing opposition party Law and Justice stemmed from widespread disillusionment with Poland’s ruling elite. He notes that the usual strategy employed by the ruling party, Civic Platform, of trying to mobilise the ‘politics of fear’ against Law and Justice was not successful this time. The election result heralds major changes on the political scene including a leadership challenge in Civic Platform, the emergence of new ‘anti-system’ and liberal political forces in parliament, and a period of soul searching for the marginalised Polish left