Testing Semi-strong Form Efficiency of Stock Market

The efficient market hypothesis suggests that stock markets are “informationally efficient”. That is, any new information relevant to the market is spontaneously reflected in the stock prices. A consequence of this hypothesis is that past prices cannot have any predictive power for future prices once the current prices have been used as an explanatory variable. In other words the change in future prices depends only on arrival of new information that was unpredictable today hence it is based on surprise information. Another consequence of this hypothesis is that arbitrage opportunities are wiped out instantaneously. Empirical tests of the efficient market hypothesis actually test for these consequences in various ways. Some of them have been summarised in earlier chapters. These tests generally could not conclusively accept the random-walk hypothesis of stock returns even when GARCH effects were accounted for. Many studies have found empirical regularities that are contrary to the efficient market hypothesis. For example, the monthly, weekly and daily returns on stocks tend to exhibit discernable patterns, such as seasonal affects, month of the year affect, day of the week affect, hourly affect etc. In case of Pakistan’s stock markets too such affects are identified. Such as the Ramadan affect [see Hussain and Uppal (1999)], seasonal effects and day of the week affect. Further, the wide spread use of “technical analysis” among stock traders and their ability to predict to some extent the direction of movements in the prices of individual stocks over medium term testifies to the existence of patterns and seasonal trends.

Fisher hypothesis: East Asian evidence from panel unit root tests

This study provides evidence supportive of Fisher hypothesis in East Asian economies using panel unit root tests, which allow for cross-country variations in the estimation. Among others, one important implication is that monetary policy will be more effective in influencing long-term interest rates and long-run macroeconomic stability in these East Asian economies under regional collaboration.Fisher hypothesis; panel unit root; univariate unit root; East Asian

Cultural interpretation of e-commerce acceptance in developing countries: Empirical evidence from Malaysia and Algeria

Global deployment in information and communication technology requires understandings of the cultural constraints in technology acceptance and usage behavior. Prior research indicates that the salient technology acceptance models may not be applicable to all cultures since empirical support was mainly obtained from North America and developed countries. There has been little research done on technology acceptance and usage behavior in the context of developing countries which exhibit distinctive cultural differences from developed countries. The purpose of this study is to test the cross-cultural applicability of technology acceptance model in two developing countries, Malaysia and Algeria, and to investigate the influence of cultural values on the acceptance of e-commerce. The four cultural values of individual-ism/collectivism, power distance, uncertainty avoidance, and masculinity/femininity identified by Hofstede are posited to comparatively explain the e-commerce acceptance in the context of the two countries. Only uncertainty avoidance was found to moderate the relationship between perceived usefulness and intention to use e-commerce, whereas the other three national culture dimensions did not moderate the relationship, which validate the longstanding notion of important cultural differences between Malaysia and Algeria and show that those differences extend to the e-commerce context

Convergence Model of Governance: A Case Study of the Local Government System of Pakistan

The future of devolution plan in Pakistan may be analysed in view of our Convergence model. This model views stability of the local Govt. system drawn on Devolution Plan 2001. It claims that as there would be more volatile and non-committed (floating) number of agents in the political market and governance system, there is more probability of divergence; i.e. the system will remain unstable. Contrary to that more is the systematic trend in political market and governance system more is the probability that the convergence in the system occurs and that in turn leads to stability of the over all system. In this ‘Convergence’ Model different types of agents have been highlighted on the basis of their political ffiliation and being in competition as ruling elite and/or their allies and non-ruling elite and/or their allies. The agents have interactive relationship horizontally and vertically with other agents i.e. either they are ally or otherwise. The composition of this structure of the agents and clients is based on the principle of bottom top pproach i.e. Union council’s members, Nazim and their political competitors, Tehsil council and Nazim, District Nazim and his allied district assembly members and their political competitors, Member provincial Assembly and their political rivals, Member National Assembly/Senator, and their political rival and the ruling political elites, Provincial Government and their political rivals, and Political elites ruling Federal Government and their political rivals.

Study of Philanthropic Behaviour in Divine Economics Framework

Philanthropic Behaviour

Day-of-the-week effects in Selected East Asian stock markets

This study examines the day-of-the-week effects in the Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea stock markets. Various significant day-of-the-week effects, including the typical negative Monday and positive Friday effects are detected in the stock markets Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong. Further analysis shows that only Friday effect in Taiwan is sustainable while all other effects disappeared completely after accounting for equity risks. Besides, this study also finds evidences of risk and return tradeoff as well as asymmetrical market effects.EGARCH mean

Does Fisher hypothesis hold for the East Asian Economies? an application of panel unit root tests

This study provides evidence supportive of Fisher hypothesis in East Asian economies using panel unit root tests, which allow for the consideration of cross-country interdependence of real interest rates in the estimation. One important implication of our finding is that monetary policy will be more effective in influencing long-term interest rates and long-run macroeconomic stability in these East Asian economies with regional collaboration.Fisher Hypothesis; macroeconomics; East Asia; panel unit root; interest rates

Real interest rates equalization: The case of Malaysia and Singapore

This study provides some evidences showing high degree of financial integration from both evidences of common shocks and real interest parity in the context of two small and open economies, that is, Malaysia and Singapore. Few key policy implications may be suggested from the findings in this study. First, foreign investors who invest in these two countries may need to look for sources of diversification to protect their wealth against the occurrence of contagion effect due to the strong trade and finance relationship between these two countries. Second, the banks and businesses that set rules for interest rates on deposits and loans should be kept consistently with commercial banking practices and key developments in the financial sectors for the betterment of both Malaysia and Singapore economies. Third and most importantly, as two financial markets are highly linked, the monetary and fiscal authorities of both countries should work hand-in-hand to avoid any potential macroeconomic instability in this region.Real Interest Rate Parity; Malaysia; Singapore