Assessing lava flow susceptibility at neighbouring volcanoes: Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo volcanoes, Virunga Volcanic Province

Abstract Assessing volcanic hazards in locations exposed to multiple central volcanoes requires to consider multiple potential eruption sources and their respective characteristics. While this is common practice in ashfall hazard assessment, this is generally not considered for topography-controlled volcanic flow processes. Yet, in volcanic areas with closely spaced volcanic systems, eruptions fed from several contrasted volcanic systems might threaten one given area. Considering the case of the Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes in the Virunga Volcanic Province (D.R.Congo), we present a method to produce a combined lava flow inundation susceptibility map that integrates both volcanoes. The spatial distribution of the probability of vent opening for the next eruption is separately constrained for both volcanoes based on the mapping of historical and pre-historical eruptive vents and fissures. The Q-LavHa lava flow probability model is then calibrated separately for each volcano, considering several historical lava flows of Nyamulagira (2004, 2006, 2010) and Nyiragongo (2002). The maps for the two volcanoes are thereafter integrated based on a weighted sum of both individual lava flow inundation probability maps, assuming historically-based relative eruption frequency of the two volcanoes. The accuracy of this probabilistic susceptibility map for the most active volcanic region in Africa was unfortunately validated by the May 2021 lava flow produced by Nyiragongo. This map was discussed and validated in 2019 with local scientists, as well as representatives of disaster management and urban planning institutions, but was not included in the regional contingency plan ahead of the 2021 eruption crisis. Updating the volcanic crisis and evacuation management plans with this lava flow probability map could contribute to reinforce risk awareness among the population and inform the future development of the city of Goma

Chemical variability in volcanic gas plumes and fumaroles along the East African Rift System: New insights from the Western Branch

The origin of magmatic fluids along the East African Rift System (EARS) is a long-lived field of debate in the scientific community. Here, we investigate the chemical composition of the volcanic gas plume and fumaroles at Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira (Democratic Republic of Congo), the only two currently erupting volcanoes set on the Western Branch of the rift. Our results are in line with earlier conceptual models proposing that volcanic gas emissions along the EARS mainly reflect variable contributions of either a Sub-Continental Lithospheric Mantle (SCLM) component or a Depleted Morb Mantle (DMM) component, and deeper fluid. At Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira, our study discards a major contribution of a high 3He/4He mantle plume component in the genesis of volcanic fluids beneath the area. High CO2/3He in fumaroles of both volcanoes is thought to reflect carbonate metasomatism in the lithospheric mantle source. As inferred by previous results obtained on the lava chemistry, this carbonate metasomatism would be more pronounced beneath Nyiragongo. This supports the idea of the presence of distinct metasomes within the lithospheric mantle beneath the Western Branch of the rift

Precursor-free eruption triggered by edifice rupture at Nyiragongo volcano

International audienceAbstract Classical mechanisms of volcanic eruptions mostly involve pressure buildup and magma ascent towards the surface 1 . Such processes produce geophysical and geochemical signals that may be detected and interpreted as eruption precursors 1–3 . On 22 May 2021, Mount Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of the Congo), an open-vent volcano with a persistent lava lake perched within its summit crater, shook up this interpretation by producing an approximately six-hour-long flank eruption without apparent precursors, followed—rather than preceded—by lateral magma motion into the crust. Here we show that this reversed sequence was most likely initiated by a rupture of the edifice, producing deadly lava flows and triggering a voluminous 25-km-long dyke intrusion. The dyke propagated southwards at very shallow depth (less than 500 m) underneath the cities of Goma (Democratic Republic of the Congo) and Gisenyi (Rwanda), as well as Lake Kivu. This volcanic crisis raises new questions about the mechanisms controlling such eruptions and the possibility of facing substantially more hazardous events, such as effusions within densely urbanized areas, phreato-magmatism or a limnic eruption from the gas-rich Lake Kivu. It also more generally highlights the challenges faced with open-vent volcanoes for monitoring, early detection and risk management when a significant volume of magma is stored close to the surface