Demutualization, outsider ownership and stock exchange performance - empirical evidence

Academic contributions on the demutualization of stock exchanges so far have been predominantly devoted to social welfare issues, whereas there is scarce empirical literature referring to the impact of a governance change on the exchange itself. While there is consensus that the case for demutualization is predominantly driven by the need to improve the exchange's competitiveness in a changing business environment, it remains unclear how different governance regimes actually affect stock exchange performance. Some authors propose that a public listing is the best suited governance arrangement to improve an exchange's competitiveness. By employing a panel data set of 28 stock exchanges for the years 1999-2003 we seek to shed light on this topic by comparing the efficiency and productivity of exchanges with differing governance arrangements. For this purpose we calculate in a first step individual efficiency and productivity values via DEA. In a second step we regress the derived values against variables that - amongst others - map the institutional arrangement of the exchanges in order to determine efficiency and productivity differences between (1) mutuals (2) demutualized but customer-owned exchanges and (3) publicly listed and thus at least partly outsider-owned exchanges. We find evidence that demutualized exchanges exhibit higher technical efficiency than mutuals. However, they perform relatively poor as far as productivity growth is concerned. Furthermore, we find no evidence that publicly listed exchanges possess higher efficiency and productivity values than demutualized exchanges with a customer-dominated structure. We conclude that the merits of outside ownership lie possibly in other areas such as solving conflicts of interest between too heterogeneous members

Trade-throughs in European cross-traded equities after transaction costs – empirical evidence for the EURO STOXX 50

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The model parameters and model forecasts are derived from historical data vintages so as to ensure comparability to historical forecasts by professionals. The mean model forecast comes surprisingly close to the mean SPF and Greenbook forecasts in terms of accuracy even though the models only make use of a small number of data series. Model forecasts compare particularly well to professional forecasts at a horizon of three to four quarters and during recoveries. The extent of forecast heterogeneity is similar for model and professional forecasts but varies substantially over time. Thus, forecast heterogeneity constitutes a potentially important source of economic fluctuations. While the particular reasons for diversity in professional forecasts are not observable, the diversity in model forecasts can be traced to different modeling assumptions, information sets and parameter estimates. JEL Classification: G14, G15, G2

Nonrandom characteristics of common stock prices

This study presents an application of operations research techniques to the development of stock price generation and simulation models to aid in the understanding of price movement. Relationships between stock price and volume and stock price and market averages which follow descernible trends and patterns are discovered. Technical trading rules are developed based on these relationships which empirically have shed doubt on the random walk hypothesis of price movement. This in turn gives evidences that technical analysis can be an aid to price forecasting --Abstract, page ii

Business models and stock exchange performance : empirical evidence

In recent years stock exchanges have been increasingly diversifying their operations into related business areas such as derivatives trading, post-trading services and software sales. This trend can be observed most notably among profit-oriented trading venues. While the pursuit for diversification is likely to be driven by the attractiveness of these investment opportunities, it is yet an open question whether certain integration activities are also efficient, both from a social welfare and from the exchanges' perspective. Academic contributions so far analyzed different business models primarily from the social welfare perspective, whereas there is only little literature considering their impact on the exchange itself. By employing a panel data set of 28 stock exchanges for the years 1999-2003 we seek to shed light on this topic by comparing the factor productivity of exchanges with different business models. Our findings suggest three conclusions: (1) Integration activity comes at the cost of increased operational complexity which in some cases outweigh the potential synergies between related activities and therefore leads to technical inefficiencies and lower productivity growth. (2) We find no evidence that vertical integration is more efficient and productive than other business models. This finding could contribute to the ongoing discussion about the merits of vertical integration from a social welfare perspective. (3) The existence of a strong in-house IT-competence seems to be beneficial to overcome

Interactions Between Price Setting and Capital Investment in a Customer Market

In this essay a customer market model is constructed, where an entrepreneur-owned firm has two choice variables, namely the customer stock and the capital stock. The firm is assumed to be completely credit rationed and the investment procedure is characterised by time-to-build. The model is solved numerically to yield steady state paths for the ratio of customers to capital, investments and price. A comparative statics analysis is carried out so as to find out how price and investments respond to exogenous shocks. The model is also tested empirically with data for the Swedish manufacturing sector. The results from the theoretical model point to a close relationship between price setting and investment decisions, which is then confirmed by the empirical investigation

Trust, opportunism and governance

The paper considers a (static) portfolio system that satisfies adding-up contraints and the gross substitution theorem. The paper shows the relationship of the two conditions to the weak dominant diagonal property of the matrix of interest rate elasticities. This enables to investigate the impact of simultaneous changes in interest rates on the asset demands.

New Mexico State Record, 12-21-1917

https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/nm_state_record_news/1075/thumbnail.jp

New Mexico State Record, 01-26-1917

https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/nm_state_record_news/1028/thumbnail.jp

New Mexico State Record, 01-04-1918

https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/nm_state_record_news/1077/thumbnail.jp