Causal Inference with Group-Based Trajectories and Propensity Score Matching: Is High School Dropout a Turning Point?

Life course criminology focuses on trajectories of deviant or criminal behavior punctuated by turning point events that redirect trajectories onto a different path. There is no consensus in the field on how to measure turning points. In this study I ask: Is high school dropout a turning point in offending trajectories? I utilize two kinds of matching methods to answer this question: matching based on semi-parametric group-based trajectory models, and propensity score matching. These methods are ideally suited to measure turning points because they explicitly model counterfactual outcomes which can be used to estimate the effect of turning point events over time. It has been suggested that dropout is the end result of a process of disengagement from school. In order to assess the effect of the event of dropout, it is necessary to separate dropout from the processes that lead to it. The extent to which this is accomplished by matching is assessed by comparing dropouts to matched non-dropouts on numerous background characteristics. As such, it is desirable to use a wide range of measures to compare the two groups. I use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to address this question. Delinquency is measured in two ways: a six-item variety scale and a scale based on a graded-response model. Dropout is based on self-reports of educational attainment supplemented with official transcripts provided by high schools. Because of the breadth of topics covered in this survey, it is very well-suited to matching methods. The richness of these data allows comparisons on over 300 characteristics to assess whether the assumptions of matching methods are plausible. I find that matching based on trajectory models is unable to achieve balance in pre-dropout characteristics between dropouts and non-dropouts. Propensity score matching successfully achieves balance, but dropout effects are indistinguishable from zero. I conclude that first-time dropout between the ages of 16 and 18 is not a turning point in offending trajectories. Implications for life course criminology and dropout research are discussed

School Dropout and Subsequent Offending: Distinguishing Selection From Causation

Past research on the relationship between school dropout and offending is inconclusive. In explaining findings, researchers have focused on strain and control theories, and have been unable to rule out selection effects. A key advance in understanding the effect of high school dropout is disaggregation by reason for dropout. Waves one through five of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 is used to answer the question: Does dropout have a causal impact on offending? Dropouts are divided into four groups depending on reason given for dropout: personal, school, economic and other. Estimation of a random effects model indicates that dropout for school reasons and "other" reasons causes a small temporary increase in the frequency of offending whereas dropout for personal or economic reasons does not affect frequency of offending. It also shows that youths who drop out for school reasons have higher rates of offending across all five waves

Expectations in ministry

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With or Without You? Contextualizing the Impact of Romantic Relationship Breakup on Crime Among Serious Adolescent Offenders

The decline and delay of marriage has prolonged adolescence and the transition to adulthood, and consequently fostered greater romantic relationship fluidity during a stage of the life course that is pivotal for both development and offending. Yet, despite a growing literature of the consequences of romantic relationships breakup, little is known about its connection with crime, especially among youth enmeshed in the criminal justice system. This article addresses this gap by examining the effects of relationship breakup on crime among justice-involved youth-a key policy-relevant group. We refer to data from the Pathways to Desistance Study, a longitudinal study of 1354 (14% female) adjudicated youth from the juvenile and adult court systems in Phoenix and Philadelphia, to assess the nature and complexity of this association. In general, our results support prior evidence of breakup's criminogenic influence. Specifically, they suggest that relationship breakup's effect on crime is particularly acute among this at-risk sample, contingent upon post-breakup relationship transitions, and more pronounced for relationships that involve cohabitation. Our results also extend prior work by demonstrating that breakup is attenuated by changes in psychosocial characteristics and peer associations/exposure. We close with a discussion of our findings, their policy implications, and what they mean for research on relationships and crime among serious adolescent offenders moving forward

Age and the explanation of crime, revisited

Age is one of the most robust correlates of criminal behavior. Yet, explanations for this relationship are varied and conflicting. Developmental theories point to a multitude of sociological, psychological, and biological changes that occur during adolescence and adulthood. One prominent criminological perspective outlined by Gottfredson and Hirschi claims that age has a direct effect on crime, inexplicable from sociological and psychological variables. Despite the attention this claim has received, few direct empirical tests of it have been conducted. We use data from Pathways to Desistance, a longitudinal study of over 1,300 serious youthful offenders (85.8% male, 40.1% African-American, 34.3% Hispanic, 21.0% White), to test this claim. On average, youths were 16.5 years old at the initial interview and were followed for 7 years. We use multilevel longitudinal models to assess the extent to which the direct effects of age are reduced to statistical and substantive non-significance when constructs from a wide range of developmental and criminological theories are controlled. Unlike previous studies, we are able to control for changes across numerous realms emphasized within differing theoretical perspectives including social control (e.g., employment and marriage), procedural justice (e.g., perceptions of the legitimacy and fairness of the legal system), learning (e.g., gang membership and exposure to antisocial peers), strain (e.g., victimization and relationship breakup), psychosocial maturity (e.g., impulse control, self-regulation and moral disengagement), and rational choice (e.g., costs and rewards of crime). Assessed separately, these perspectives explain anywhere from 3% (procedural justice) to 49% (social learning) of the age-crime relationship. Together, changes in these constructs explain 69% of the drop in crime from ages 15 to 25. We conclude that the relationship between age and crime in adolescence and early adulthood is largely explainable, though not entirely, attributable to multiple co-occurring developmental changes

Disengaging From Gangs and Desistance From Crime

We study the relationship between disengagement from gangs and desistance from crime within a life-course criminological framework. Gang disengagement is conceptualized as the event of gang membership de-identification and the process of declining gang embeddedness. We examine the effects of both the event and the process of disengaging from gangs on (1) criminal desistance mechanisms and (2) criminal offending using longitudinal data and multilevel modeling. We find that disengaging from gangs is indirectly related to offending through less exposure to antisocial peers, less unstructured routine activities, less victimization, and more temperance. Gang disengagement is associated with decreased contemporaneous offending but does not predict future offending after controlling for desistance mechanisms. Evidence also suggests that those who leave gangs more quickly are less exposed to antisocial peers, and possess better work histories and psychosocial characteristics even while in the gang. We discuss implications for research on gangs and criminal desistance

A Life-Course Analysis of Offense Specialization Across Age: Introducing a New Method for Studying Individual Specialization Over the Life Course

Much of the knowledge base on offense specialization indicates that, although there is some (short-term) specialization, it exists amidst much versatility in offending. Yet this general conclusion is drawn on studies using very different conceptualizations of specialization and emerges with data primarily through the first two to three decades of life. Using data on a sample of Dutch offenders through age 72 years, this article introduces and applies a new method for studying individual offender specialization over the life course. The results indicate that although, in general, individual offending patterns over the life course are diverse, there is also evidence of an age—diversity curve. Linking offense frequency trajectories to the estimated diversity index, the authors also examine distinct specialization patterns across unique trajectory groups. Implications for theory and research are outlined

Prevalence and Risk Factors Associated with Carrying a Gun to School during Adolescence: A Statewide Study of Middle and High School Students

Although studies have identified risk factors for adolescent handgun carrying, previous research on risk factors for carrying a handgun to school specifically is sparse. This study examines self-report data from 122,840 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students from 426 schools across Arizona, from three survey administrations (2014, 2016, and 2018). In each year, 0.5% to 0.8% of students reported carrying a handgun to school in the past year, and roughly half of the schools had at least one student who brought a gun to school. Multinomial logistic regression model results indicated that youth who carry a handgun to school are generally indistinguishable from non-school carriers; both kinds of carrying can be explained by risk factors related to criminal lifestyle, differential association, and fear of victimization theories. Findings suggest that programs aimed at reducing handgun carrying more generally might have an impact on carrying a gun to school