Leveraging Social Media to Predict COVID-19–Induced Disruptions to Mental Well-Being Among University Students: Modeling Study

BackgroundLarge-scale crisis events such as COVID-19 often have secondary impacts on individuals’ mental well-being. University students are particularly vulnerable to such impacts. Traditional survey-based methods to identify those in need of support do not scale over large populations and they do not provide timely insights. We pursue an alternative approach through social media data and machine learning. Our models aim to complement surveys and provide early, precise, and objective predictions of students disrupted by COVID-19. ObjectiveThis study aims to demonstrate the feasibility of language on private social media as an indicator of crisis-induced disruption to mental well-being. MethodsWe modeled 4124 Facebook posts provided by 43 undergraduate students, spanning over 2 years. We extracted temporal trends in the psycholinguistic attributes of their posts and comments. These trends were used as features to predict how COVID-19 disrupted their mental well-being. ResultsThe social media–enabled model had an F1-score of 0.79, which was a 39% improvement over a model trained on the self-reported mental state of the participant. The features we used showed promise in predicting other mental states such as anxiety, depression, social, isolation, and suicidal behavior (F1-scores varied between 0.85 and 0.93). We also found that selecting the windows of time 7 months after the COVID-19–induced lockdown presented better results, therefore, paving the way for data minimization. ConclusionsWe predicted COVID-19–induced disruptions to mental well-being by developing a machine learning model that leveraged language on private social media. The language in these posts described psycholinguistic trends in students’ online behavior. These longitudinal trends helped predict mental well-being disruption better than models trained on correlated mental health questionnaires. Our work inspires further research into the potential applications of early, precise, and automatic warnings for individuals concerned about their mental health in times of crisis

Empirical networks for localized COVID-19 interventions using WiFi infrastructure at university campuses

Infectious diseases, like COVID-19, pose serious challenges to university campuses, which typically adopt closure as a non-pharmaceutical intervention to control spread and ensure a gradual return to normalcy. Intervention policies, such as remote instruction (RI) where large classes are offered online, reduce potential contact but also have broad side-effects on campus by hampering the local economy, students’ learning outcomes, and community wellbeing. In this paper, we demonstrate that university policymakers can mitigate these tradeoffs by leveraging anonymized data from their WiFi infrastructure to learn community mobility—a methodology we refer to as WiFi mobility models (WiMob). This approach enables policymakers to explore more granular policies like localized closures (LC). WiMob can construct contact networks that capture behavior in various spaces, highlighting new potential transmission pathways and temporal variation in contact behavior. Additionally, WiMob enables us to design LC policies that close super-spreader locations on campus. By simulating disease spread with contact networks from WiMob, we find that LC maintains the same reduction in cumulative infections as RI while showing greater reduction in peak infections and internal transmission. Moreover, LC reduces campus burden by closing fewer locations, forcing fewer students into completely online schedules, and requiring no additional isolation. WiMob can empower universities to conceive and assess a variety of closure policies to prevent future outbreaks

Leveraging WiFi network logs to infer student collocation and its relationship with academic performance

Abstract A comprehensive understanding of collocated social interactions can help campuses and organizations better support their community. Universities could determine new ways to conduct classes and design programs by studying how students have collocated in the past. However, this needs data that describe large groups over a long period. Harnessing user devices to infer collocation, while tempting, is challenged by privacy concerns, power consumption, and maintenance issues. Alternatively, embedding new sensors across the entire campus is expensive. Instead, we investigate an easily accessible data source that can retroactively depict multiple users on campus over a semester, a managed WiFi network. Despite the coarse approximations of collocation provided by WiFi network logs, we demonstrate that leveraging such data can express meaningful outcomes of collocated social interaction. Since a known outcome of collocating with peers is improved performance, we inspected if automatically–inferred collocation behaviors can indicate the individual performance of project group members on a campus. We studied 163 students (in 54 project groups) over 14 weeks. After describing how we determine collocation with the WiFi logs, we present a study to analyze how collocation within groups relates to a student’s final score. We found that modeling collocation behaviors showed a significant correlation (Pearson’s r = 0.24 $r =0.24$ ) with performance (better than models of peer feedback or individual behaviors). These findings emphasize that it is feasible and valuable to characterize collocated social interactions with archived WiFi network logs. We conclude the paper with a discussion of applications for repurposing WiFi logs to describe collocation, along with privacy considerations, and directions for future work