Predicting Traffic on the Maine Turnpike Using Artificial Neural Networks

In this thesis, I compare the forecasting accuracy of statistical models with artificial neural networks when predicting daily traffic counts on the Maine turnpike over holiday weekends

Stochastic variation of transcript abundance in C57BL/6J mice

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Transcripts can exhibit significant variation in tissue samples from inbred laboratory mice. We have designed and carried out a microarray experiment to examine transcript variation across samples from adipose, heart, kidney, and liver tissues of C57BL/6J mice and to partition variation into within-mouse and between-mouse components. Within-mouse variance captures variation due to heterogeneity of gene expression within tissues, RNA-extraction, and array processing. Between-mouse variance reflects differences in transcript abundance between genetically identical mice.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The nature and extent of transcript variation differs across tissues. Adipose has the largest total variance and the largest within-mouse variance. Liver has the smallest total variance, but it has the most between-mouse variance. Genes with high variability can be classified into groups with correlated patterns of expression that are enriched for specific biological functions. Variation between mice is associated with circadian rhythm, growth hormone signaling, immune response, androgen regulation, lipid metabolism, and the extracellular matrix. Genes showing correlated patterns of within-mouse variation are also associated with biological functions that largely reflect heterogeneity of cell types within tissues.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Genetically identical mice can experience different individual outcomes for medically important traits. Variation in gene expression observed between genetically identical mice can identify functional classes of genes that are likely to vary in the absence of experimental perturbations, can inform experimental design decisions, and provides a baseline for the interpretation of gene expression data in interventional studies. The extent of transcript variation among genetically identical mice underscores the importance of stochastic and micro-environmental factors and their phenotypic consequences.</p

IL-1α Signaling Is Critical for Leukocyte Recruitment after Pulmonary Aspergillus fumigatus Challenge

Aspergillus fumigatus is a mold that causes severe pulmonary infections. Our knowledge of how A. fumigatus growth is controlled in the respiratory tract is developing, but still limited. Alveolar macrophages, lung resident macrophages, and airway epithelial cells constitute the first lines of defense against inhaled A. fumigatus conidia. Subsequently, neutrophils and inflammatory CCR2+ monocytes are recruited to the respiratory tract to prevent fungal growth. However, the mechanism of neutrophil and macrophage recruitment to the respiratory tract after A. fumigatus exposure remains an area of ongoing investigation. Here we show that A. fumigatus pulmonary challenge induces expression of the inflammasome-dependent cytokines IL-1β and IL-18 within the first 12 hours, while IL-1α expression continually increases over at least the first 48 hours. Strikingly, Il1r1-deficient mice are highly susceptible to pulmonary A. fumigatus challenge exemplified by robust fungal proliferation in the lung parenchyma. Enhanced susceptibility of Il1r1-deficient mice correlated with defects in leukocyte recruitment and anti-fungal activity. Importantly, IL-1α rather than IL-1β was crucial for optimal leukocyte recruitment. IL-1α signaling enhanced the production of CXCL1. Moreover, CCR2+ monocytes are required for optimal early IL-1α and CXCL1 expression in the lungs, as selective depletion of these cells resulted in their diminished expression, which in turn regulated the early accumulation of neutrophils in the lung after A. fumigatus challenge. Enhancement of pulmonary neutrophil recruitment and anti-fungal activity by CXCL1 treatment could limit fungal growth in the absence of IL-1α signaling. In contrast to the role of IL-1α in neutrophil recruitment, the inflammasome and IL-1β were only essential for optimal activation of anti-fungal activity of macrophages. As such, Pycard-deficient mice are mildly susceptible to A. fumigatus infection. Taken together, our data reveal central, non-redundant roles for IL-1α and IL-1β in controlling A. fumigatus infection in the murine lung

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

The V471A polymorphism in autophagy-related gene ATG7 modifies age at onset specifically in Italian Huntington disease patients

The cause of Huntington disease (HD) is a polyglutamine repeat expansion of more than 36 units in the huntingtin protein, which is inversely correlated with the age at onset of the disease. However, additional genetic factors are believed to modify the course and the age at onset of HD. Recently, we identified the V471A polymorphism in the autophagy-related gene ATG7, a key component of the autophagy pathway that plays an important role in HD pathogenesis, to be associated with the age at onset in a large group of European Huntington disease patients. To confirm this association in a second independent patient cohort, we analysed the ATG7 V471A polymorphism in additional 1,464 European HD patients of the “REGISTRY” cohort from the European Huntington Disease Network (EHDN). In the entire REGISTRY cohort we could not confirm a modifying effect of the ATG7 V471A polymorphism. However, analysing a modifying effect of ATG7 in these REGISTRY patients and in patients of our previous HD cohort according to their ethnic origin, we identified a significant effect of the ATG7 V471A polymorphism on the HD age at onset only in the Italian population (327 patients). In these Italian patients, the polymorphism is associated with a 6-years earlier disease onset and thus seems to have an aggravating effect. We could specify the role of ATG7 as a genetic modifier for HD particularly in the Italian population. This result affirms the modifying influence of the autophagic pathway on the course of HD, but also suggests population-specific modifying mechanisms in HD pathogenesis