Impact of Extreme Weather on North American Transmission System Outages

The impact of weather on the power grid has been a focus of multiple studies, and its importance has grown with the number and magnitude of extreme weather events. This paper uses transmission outage and inventory data collected in Transmission Availability Data System (TADS) to identify and analyze weather related transmission events and quantify their impact on the North American Bulk Electric System. The impact of a transmission event is measured by several factors: the number of outages, affected miles and MVA, event duration, and number of groups of simultaneous outages (known as generations of outages). We analyze the largest events from 2015 to 2019, and use an event propagation metric to estimate the probability of small, medium, and large events, and track how these probabilities change from year-to-year

How long is a resilience event in a transmission system?: Metrics and models driven by utility data

We discuss ways to measure duration in a power transmission system resilience event by modeling outage and restore processes from utility data. We introduce novel Poisson process models that describe how resilience events progress and verify that they are typical using extensive outage data collected across North America. Some usual duration metrics show impractically high statistical variability, and we recommend new duration metrics that perform better.This is a pre-print of the article Dobson, Ian, and Svetlana Ekisheva. "How long is a resilience event in a transmission system?: Metrics and models driven by utility data." arXiv preprint arXiv:2208.06985 (2022). DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2208.06985. Copyright 2022 The Authors. Posted with permission

A Risk-Based Approach to Assess the Operational Resilience of Transmission Grids

Modern risk analysis studies of the power system increasingly rely on big datasets, either synthesized, simulated, or real utility data. Particularly in the transmission system, outage events have a strong influence on the reliability, resilience, and security of the overall energy delivery infrastructure. In this paper we analyze historical outage data for transmission system components and discuss the implications of nearby overlapping outages with respect to resilience of the power system. We carry out a risk-based assessment using North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Transmission Availability Data System (TADS) for the North American bulk power system (BPS). We found that the quantification of nearby unscheduled outage clusters would improve the response times for operators to readjust the system and provide better resilience still under the standard definition of N-1 security. Finally, we propose future steps to investigate the relationship between clusters of outages and their electrical proximity, in order to improve operator actions in the operation horizon

Assessing Transmission Resilience during Extreme Weather with Outage and Restore Processes

We automatically extract resilience events and novel outage and restore processes from standard transmission utility detailed outage data. This new processing is applied to the outage data collected in NERC’s Transmission Availability Data System to introduce and analyze statistics that quantify resilience of the transmission system against extreme weather events. These metrics (such as outage rate and duration, number of elements outaged, rated capacity outaged, restore duration, maximum simultaneous outages, and element-days lost) are calculated for all large weather-related events on the North American transmission system from 2015 to 2020 and then by extreme weather type that caused them such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and winter storms. Finally, we study how performance of the system changed with respect to the resilience metrics by season and year.This is a manuscript of a proceeding published as Ekisheva, Svetlana, Ian Dobson, Rachel Rieder, and Jack Norris. "Assessing Transmission Resilience during Extreme Weather with Outage and Restore Processes." In 2022 17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), pp. 1-6. IEEE, 2022. DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS53380.2022.9810645. Copyright 2022 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works. Posted with permission

Impact of Extreme Weather on North American Transmission System Outages

The impact of weather on the power grid has been a focus of multiple studies, and its importance has grown with the number and magnitude of extreme weather events. This paper uses transmission outage and inventory data collected in Transmission Availability Data System (TADS) to identify and analyze weather related transmission events and quantify their impact on the North American Bulk Electric System. The impact of a transmission event is measured by several factors: the number of outages, affected miles and MVA, event duration, and number of groups of simultaneous outages (known as generations of outages). We analyze the largest events from 2015 to 2019, and use an event propagation metric to estimate the probability of small, medium, and large events, and track how these probabilities change from year-to-year.This is a pre-print of a proceeding that will appear at IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting: Ekisheva, Svetlana, Rachel Rieder, Jack Norris, Mark Lauby, and Ian Dobson. "Impact of Extreme Weather on North American Transmission System Outages." (2021). Posted with permission.</p

Composite Power System Reliability with Renewables and Customer Flexibility

Composite Power System Reliability is defined as the computational procedure that quantifies the probability that the power system will perform the function of delivering electric power to customers adequately, on a continuous basis and with an acceptable quality. This definition leaves many details undefined and exemplifies the ambiguity in reliability analysis. The increasing deployment of wind and PV creates additional uncertainties that make reliability analysis a rather complex issue. Because of increased uncertainty the need for composite reliability analysis and utilization of results in power system planning is critical. New approaches are emerging for dealing with these problems from the operational point of view, including demand response programs, tapping on customer and distributed resource flexibility and new control approaches. The key question to be addressed is: how the new operational paradigms affect composite power system reliability. This paper presents the ongoing work of the IEEE Composite System Reliability Task Force of the IEEE PES Reliability, Risk, Probability Application (RRPA) Subcommittee.Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.Intelligent Electrical Power Grid

Composite Power System Reliability (TR99)

his technical report reviews the state-of-the-art in composite system reliability (CSR) evaluation. Reliability assessment methods for composite generation and transmission systems have been developed in recent decades. However, maintaining an adequate level of reliability of the modern power grid is particularly challenging today due to many causes such as increasingly frequent extreme events (e.g., failure of multiple physical components, extreme weather events, and other natural disasters), high penetration of variable energy resources (VERs), and the increasing complexity of energy system infrastructure. Despite the numerous reliability analysis methods that exist today, including enumeration (analytical) methods and Monte Carlo methods, the computational burden is still a major obstacle to applying CSR analysis in an actual large-scale composite system, especially in the area of operations. Organizations and utilities in North America (including the North American Electric Reliability Corporation or NERC), Europe, Asia, and other places in the world have been searching for appropriate methodologies and computing tools.Based on extensive discussions and experience sharing among task force members from research organizations, utility companies, software developers, and regulatory bodies, the Composite System Reliability Task Force (CSR TF) has focused on some of the most commonly seen concerns and issues related to the adequacy and operational reliability of a composite system. The TF has attempted to address these concerns by gathering best practices from published literature and users of probabilistic tools in the electric power industry.The objective of this report is to provide guidelines and suggestions for power industry professionals who are considering applying probabilistic methods in CSR analysis. This report, therefore, also investigates other factors that affect the use of probabilistic techniques by electric utilities.Finally, the report provides useful references for the development of NERC guidelines and standards relevant to CSR adoption in the industry.Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.Intelligent Electrical Power Grid

Research on Common-Mode and Dependent (CMD) Outage Events in Power Systems: A Review

The purpose of this paper is to present a review of some fundamental concepts and practical applications in the area of common-mode and dependent (CMD) outage events in power systems. The paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by the Probability Applications for Common and dependent Mode Events (PACME) Working Group (WG) of the Reliability, Risk and Probability Applications Subcommittee. The PACME WG was formed in 2010 to review, advance, and present the research and practical applications in the area of CMD outage events. This paper presents state-of-the-art in research, modeling, and applications of CMD outage events in power system planning and operation. Issues considered include: data monitoring and collection, and probabilistic modeling and evaluation in the planning, and operation of power generation and transmission systems. Additionally, some results obtained from outage data statistics corresponding to CMD outage events in systems such as Generating Availability Data System, Transmission Availability Data System, and Canadian Electrical Association are presented