A North-South Contrast of Subsurface Salinity Anomalies in the Northwestern Pacific From 2002 to 2013

This paper finds a north‐south contrast of subsurface salinity trend during 2002–2013 in the northwestern Pacific. Both Argo float data and long‐term repeat hydrographic measurements along the 137°E section show that salinity anomalies along the isopycnals of 24.5–25.4 kg/m3 exhibit a pronounced decreasing trend north of 15°N and an increasing trend south of 15°N. We perform a quantitative analysis based on satellite‐derived data and a qualitative analysis that used a lower‐order isopyncal salinity model that represents key balance terms (i.e., evaporation E, precipitation P, and wind forcing advection). Both of the analyses consistently show that the subsurface salinity anomalies in the north and south of 15°N are induced by different physical processes. Fresher surface waters in the northwestern subtropical outcrop region due to an excess freshwater supply (E − P 0) and anomalous ocean circulation associated with the recent accelerated trade winds of the tropical Pacific cause the saltiness of subsurface waters south of 15°N. The results imply that the salinity north‐south contrast may play an important role in changing ocean thermocline structure and upper ocean stratification in the northwestern Pacific.publishedVersio

Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century

Instrumental records suggest multidecadal variability in Arctic surface temperature throughout the twentieth century. This variability is caused by a combination of external forcing and internal variability, but their relative importance remains unclear. Since the early twentieth century Arctic warming has been linked to decadal variability in the Pacific, we hypothesize that the Pacific could impact decadal temperature trends in the Arctic throughout the twentieth century. To investigate this, we compare two ensembles of historical all-forcing twentieth century simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM): (1) a fully coupled ensemble and (2) an ensemble where momentum flux anomalies from reanalysis are prescribed over the Indo-Pacific Ocean to constrain Pacific sea surface temperature variability. We find that the combined effect of tropical and extratropical Pacific decadal variability can explain up to ~ 50% of the observed decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic. The Pacific-Arctic connection involves both lower tropospheric horizontal advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating, mediated by Aleutian Low variations. This link is detected across the twentieth century, but the response in Arctic surface temperature is moderated by external forcing and surface feedbacks. Our results also indicate that increased ocean heat transport from the Atlantic to the Arctic could have compensated for the impact of a cooling Pacific at the turn of the twenty-first century. These results have implications for understanding the present Arctic warming and future climate variations.publishedVersio

Seasonal predictions initialised by assimilating sea surface temperature observations with the EnKF

This study demonstrates that assimilating SST with an advanced data assimilation method yields prediction skill level with the best state-of-the-art systems. We employ the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM)—a fully-coupled forecasting system—to assimilate SST observations with the ensemble Kalman filter. Predictions of NorCPM are compared to predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. The global prediction skill of NorCPM at 6- and 12-month lead times is higher than the averaged skill of the NMME. A new metric is introduced for ranking model skill. According to the metric, NorCPM is one of the most skilful systems among the NMME in predicting SST in most regions. Confronting the skill to a large historical ensemble without assimilation, shows that the skill is largely derived from the initialisation rather than from the external forcing. NorCPM achieves good skill in predicting El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) up to 12 months ahead and achieves skill over land via teleconnections. However, NorCPM has a more pronounced reduction in skill in May than the NMME systems. An analysis of ENSO dynamics indicates that the skill reduction is mainly caused by model deficiencies in representing the thermocline feedback in February and March. We also show that NorCPM has skill in predicting sea ice extent at the Arctic entrance adjacent to the north Atlantic; this skill is highly related to the initialisation of upper ocean heat content.publishedVersio

Prevalence and type distribution of human papillomavirus infections in Danish patients diagnosed with vulvar squamous cell tumors and precursors

Objective: To study the prevalence and type distribution of human papillomavirus (HPV) in patients with vulvar high-grade precancerous lesions and vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC). Methods: Formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue samples from Danish patients diagnosed with vulvar precancerous lesions or VSCC in the period from 2010 to 2012 were obtained. HPV-DNA detection was carried out by the use of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using GP5+/GP6+ primers and genotyped by sequencing. A systematic literature search on the PubMed database was performed to investigate the prevalence and genotype distribution worldwide. Results: In the present study population (n = 149) 52 vulvar high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL), 2 differentiated vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (dVIN), and 95 VSCC cases were identified. HPV was detected in 85 patients (57.0%). Overall, a higher proportion of the vulvar high-grade precancerous lesions were HPV positive compared to VSCC (83.6% vs. 42.1%, p < 0.001). Additionally, HSIL had a significantly higher HPV-positive rate compared to keratinizing VSCC (84.6% vs. 33.3%, p < 0.001). However, the HPV positivity was comparable between HSIL and non-keratinizing VSCC (84.6% vs. 82.4%, p = 0.825). One dVIN was HPV positive whereas the other was HPV negative. HPV-16 was the most common HPV type (68.2%), followed by HPV-33 (18.8%) and HPV-18 (8.2%). Conclusions: Most vulvar HSIL and non-keratinizing VSCCs appear to be HPV associated. However, we find a high HPV association in keratinizing VSCC, which needs to be further studied. HPV-16 remains the predominant genotype, but HPV-33 also seems to play a role in the development of VSCC

Weakening of the Atlantic Niño variability under global warming

The Atlantic Nino is one of the most important patterns of interannual tropical climate variability, but how climate change will influence this pattern is not well known due to large climate model biases. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models robustly predict a weakening of Atlantic Ninos in response to global warming, mainly due to a decoupling of subsurface and surface temperature variations as the upper equatorial Atlantic Ocean warms. This weakening is predicted by most (>80%) models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 under the highest emission scenarios. Our results indicate a reduction in variability by the end of the century by 14%, and as much as 24-48% when accounting for model errors using a simple emergent constraint analysis. Such a weakening of Atlantic Nino variability will potentially impact climate conditions and the skill of seasonal predictions in many regions. The Atlantic Nino is an important mode of tropical climate variability, but how it reacts to climate change is not well known due to model biases. Here the authors show a robust weakening of the Atlantic Nino of up to 24-48% under high emissions until the end of the century

Marine-based multiproxy reconstruction of Atlantic multidecadal variability

Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is known to impact climate globally, and knowledge about the persistence of AMV is important for understanding past and future climate variability, as well as modeling and assessing climate impacts. The short observational data do not significantly resolve multidecadal variability, but recent paleoproxy reconstructions show multidecadal variability in North Atlantic temperature prior to the instrumental record. However, most of these reconstructions are land-based, not necessarily representing sea surface temperature. Proxy records are also subject to dating errors and microenvironmental effects. We extend the record of AMV 90 years past the instrumental record using principle component analysis of five marine-based proxy records to identify the leading mode of variability. The first principal component is consistent with the observed AMV, and multidecadal variability seems to persist prior to the instrumental record. Thus, we demonstrate that reconstructions of past Atlantic low-frequency variability can be improved by combining marine-based proxies

Modelling abrupt glacial North Atlantic freshening: Rates of change and their implications for Heinrich events

The abrupt delivery of large amounts of freshwater to the North Atlantic in the form of water or icebergs has been thought to lead to significant climate change, including abrupt slowing of the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation. In this paper we examine intermediate complexity coupled modelling evidence to estimate the rates of change, and recovery, in oceanic climate that would be expected for such events occurring during glacial times from likely sources around the North Atlantic and Arctic periphery. We show that rates of climate change are slower for events with a European or Arctic origin. Palaeoceanographic data are presented to consider, through the model results, the origin and likely strength of major ice-rafting, or Heinrich, events during the last glacial period. We suggest that Heinrich events H1-H3 are likely to have had a significant contribution from an Arctic source as well as Hudson Strait, leading to the observed climate change. In the case of H1 and H2, we hypothesise that this secondary input is from a Laurentide Arctic source, but the dominant iceberg release for H3 is hypothesised to derive from the northern Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, rather than Hudson Strait. Earlier Heinrich events are suggested to be predominantly Hudson Strait in origin, with H6 having the lowest climate impact, and hence iceberg flux, but H4 having a climate signal of geographically variable length. We hypothesise that this is linked to a combination of climate-affecting events occurring around the globe at this time, and not just of Laurentide origin. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP

The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It combines the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) – which features interactive aerosol-cloud schemes and an isopycnic-coordinate ocean component with biogeochemistry – with anomaly assimilation of SST and T/S-profile observations using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF).publishedVersio

Association of respiratory symptoms and lung function with occupation in the multinational Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease has been associated with exposures in the workplace. We aimed to assess the association of respiratory symptoms and lung function with occupation in the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study. Methods We analysed cross-sectional data from 28 823 adults (≥40 years) in 34 countries. We considered 11 occupations and grouped them by likelihood of exposure to organic dusts, inorganic dusts and fumes. The association of chronic cough, chronic phlegm, wheeze, dyspnoea, forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/FVC with occupation was assessed, per study site, using multivariable regression. These estimates were then meta-analysed. Sensitivity analyses explored differences between sexes and gross national income. Results Overall, working in settings with potentially high exposure to dusts or fumes was associated with respiratory symptoms but not lung function differences. The most common occupation was farming. Compared to people not working in any of the 11 considered occupations, those who were farmers for ≥20 years were more likely to have chronic cough (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.19–1.94), wheeze (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.16–1.63) and dyspnoea (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.53–2.20), but not lower FVC (β=0.02 L, 95% CI −0.02–0.06 L) or lower FEV1/FVC (β=0.04%, 95% CI −0.49–0.58%). Some findings differed by sex and gross national income. Conclusion At a population level, the occupational exposures considered in this study do not appear to be major determinants of differences in lung function, although they are associated with more respiratory symptoms. Because not all work settings were included in this study, respiratory surveillance should still be encouraged among high-risk dusty and fume job workers, especially in low- and middle-income countries.publishedVersio

Cohort Profile: Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study

The Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study was established to assess the prevalence of chronic airflow obstruction, a key characteristic of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and its risk factors in adults (≥40 years) from general populations across the world. The baseline study was conducted between 2003 and 2016, in 41 sites across Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, the Caribbean and Oceania, and collected high-quality pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry from 28 828 participants. The follow-up study was conducted between 2019 and 2021, in 18 sites across Africa, Asia, Europe and the Caribbean. At baseline, there were in these sites 12 502 participants with high-quality spirometry. A total of 6452 were followed up, with 5936 completing the study core questionnaire. Of these, 4044 also provided high-quality pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry. On both occasions, the core questionnaire covered information on respiratory symptoms, doctor diagnoses, health care use, medication use and ealth status, as well as potential risk factors. Information on occupation, environmental exposures and diet was also collected