An Estimate of Global Anthrax Prevalence in Livestock: A Meta-analysis

Background and Aim: Anthrax, caused by the soil-borne spore-forming bacteria called Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists worldwide in livestock and wildlife and infects humans. It is a great hazard to livestock; henceforth, evaluating the global concerns about the disease occurrence in livestock is essential. This study was conducted to estimate the global prevalence of anthrax and predict high-risk regions, which could be an input to veterinarians to take necessary steps to control and avoid the disease. Materials and Methods: A literature review was performed using online databases, namely, PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus, Biomed Central, and Science Direct, to extract relevant publications worldwide between 1992 and 2020. Initially, 174 articles were selected, and after scrutinizing, 24 articles reporting the prevalence of anthrax were found to be adequate for the final meta-analysis. The statistical study was accompanied by employing fixed effects and random effects models using R. Results: The pooled prevalence of anthrax globally was 28% (95% confidence interval, 26-30%) from 2452 samples through the fixed effects model. Continent-wise subgroup analysis through the random effects model revealed that the pooled prevalence of anthrax was highest in Africa (29%) and least in North America (21%). Conclusion: In these publications, anthrax causes economic loss to farmers and, thus, to the world. Hence, controlling anthrax infections in high-risk regions are essential by implementing appropriate control measures to decrease the effect of the disease, thereby reducing economic loss

A New Methodology to Comprehend the Effect of El Niño and La Niña Oscillation in Early Warning of Anthrax Epidemic Among Livestock

Anthrax is a highly fatal zoonotic disease that affects all species of livestock. The study aims to develop an early warning of epidemiological anthrax using machine learning (ML) models and to study the effect of El Niño and La Niña oscillation, as well as the climate–disease relationship concerning the spatial occurrence and outbreaks in Karnataka. The disease incidence data are divided based on El Niño and La Niña events from 2004–2019 and subjected to climate-disease modeling to understand the disease pattern over the years. Machine learning models were implemented using R statistical software version 3.1.3 with Livestock density, soil profile, and meteorological and remote sensing variables as risk factors associated with anthrax incidence. Model evaluation is performed using statistical indices, viz., Cohen’s kappa, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, true skill statistics (TSS), etc. Models with good predictive power were combined to develop an average prediction model. The predicted results were mapped onto the Risk maps, and the Basic reproduction numbers (R0) for the districts that are significantly clustered were calculated. Early warning or risk prediction developed with a layer of R0 superimposed on a risk map helps in the preparedness for the disease occurrence, and precautionary measures before the spread of the disease