Smart experimental designs provide military decision-makers with new insights from agent-based simulations

Naval Postgraduate School RESEARCH, 13, 2, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, 2003, pp. 20-21, 57-59, 63

All-optical switching in rubidium vapor

We report on an all-optical switch that operates at low light levels. It consists of laser beams counterpropagating through a warm rubidium vapor that induce an off-axis optical pattern. A switching laser beam causes this pattern to rotate even when the power in the switching beam is much lower than the power in the pattern. The observed switching energy density is very low, suggesting that the switch might operate at the single-photon level with system optimization. This approach opens the possibility of realizing a single-photon switch for quantum information networks and for improving transparent optical telecommunication networks.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures; published in Science; http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/308/5722/67

Improving Navy MPTE Studies with Model-Driven Big Data

The goal of this research was to improve upon the ability of OPNAV N1 analysts to quickly and efficiently obtain experiment-based information from their computational models. The enhanced information will enable N1’s analysts to better support Navy leadership in resource and policy decisions that shape the future Navy and help it retain and develop its most talented Sailors. This project built on previous collaborations with N1 using data farming to enhance the information gleaned from their Navy talent management models, such as the Officer Strategic Analysis Model (OSAM) model, the Production Resource Optimization (PRO) model, and the Navy Total Force Strength Model (NTFSM). During this research period, (1) Ensign William Desousa (2015) investigated the behavior of economic inputs in NTFSM; (2) Lieutenant Peter Bazalaki (2016) used the new data farming capabilities we developed in OSAM to investigate Surface Warfare Officer (SWO) inventory across a breadth of possibilities; and (3) Lieutenant Allison Hogarth (2016) built, tested, and demonstrated a user interface in Excel that enables users of the PRO model to automatically execute a sophisticated design of experiments—the tool that enables this new capability is known as Production Resource Optimization Model With Experimental Design (PROMWED). In addition to working with the student-officers, the faculty supporting this project performed an empirical study of statistical software packages that may provide better understanding of the high-dimensional behavior of manpower models in the future (Erickson, Ankenman, & Sanchez 2016).Naval Research ProgramPrepared for Topic Sponsor: OPNAV N1; Research POC Name: Mr. Ian AndersoNPS-N16-N154-

Advancing the Application of Design of Experiments to Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model Data

NPS NRP Executive SummaryNavy leadership is interested in initiatives that can potentially increase the responsiveness of campaign analysis. Simulation-based campaign analysis is used to measure risk for investment options in how best to equip, organize, supply, maintain, train, and employ our naval forces. The Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM) is a stochastic simulation model used to support campaign analysis by the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force. Building, testing, running, and analyzing campaign scenarios in STORM is a complex, time-consuming process. A simulated campaign may span months, involve scores of ships and battalions, hundreds of aircraft and installations, all executing thousands of interconnected missions involving numerous events in time and space. Creating, testing, and approving the inputs for a single design point (DP) requires a significant investment in analysts’ time and computing resources. Consequently, there are limits on the number of DPs that can be produced, executed, and analyzed during a study’s timeframe.N8 - Integration of Capabilities & ResourcesThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098).Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Efficiently Using Families of Diverse Models to Better Inform Decision Makers in Objective and Repeatable Ways

NPS NRP Executive SummaryThe Marine Corps seeks to integrate analytical processes that develop actionable insights for decision makers across its enterprise. One supporting goal in this endeavor is to develop a methodology for implementing a wargame-analytic continuum by formally linking outcomes of wargames with more traditional constructive closed-form simulations. The primary research objective is to explore methods and tools that provide the greatest utility when integrating wargames with constructive simulations. As part of this, we will develop, assess, and document a translation/transformation process used to convert a human-in-the-loop wargaming activity into the analytic domain, highlighting judgment calls and issues, and how they were resolved. The research will be done in support of one or more current Marine Corps analysis issues. The SEED Center will focus on constructive simulations that augment other analyses by other organizations. Candidate analysis "partners" include OAD, MCWL, and NPS. Wargaming activities may include NPS, MCWL, and others. MCWL live-fire events may also be leveraged or informed. In addition to regular reviews, the research deliverables will include: (1) A final brief and/or technical report and student theses (if applicable); (2) All findings, methods, and data used in the study, as well as guidance on how the Marines can most efficiently acquire and organically use wargames within an analytic continuum; and (3) Appropriate conference or journal papers related to this research.Marine Corps Modeling & Simulation Office (MCMSO)HQMC Combat Development and Integration (CD&I)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Efficiently Using Families of Diverse Models to Better Inform Decision Makers in Objective and Repeatable Ways

NPS NRP Project PosterThe Marine Corps seeks to integrate analytical processes that develop actionable insights for decision makers across its enterprise. One supporting goal in this endeavor is to develop a methodology for implementing a wargame-analytic continuum by formally linking outcomes of wargames with more traditional constructive closed-form simulations. The primary research objective is to explore methods and tools that provide the greatest utility when integrating wargames with constructive simulations. As part of this, we will develop, assess, and document a translation/transformation process used to convert a human-in-the-loop wargaming activity into the analytic domain, highlighting judgment calls and issues, and how they were resolved. The research will be done in support of one or more current Marine Corps analysis issues. The SEED Center will focus on constructive simulations that augment other analyses by other organizations. Candidate analysis "partners" include OAD, MCWL, and NPS. Wargaming activities may include NPS, MCWL, and others. MCWL live-fire events may also be leveraged or informed. In addition to regular reviews, the research deliverables will include: (1) A final brief and/or technical report and student theses (if applicable); (2) All findings, methods, and data used in the study, as well as guidance on how the Marines can most efficiently acquire and organically use wargames within an analytic continuum; and (3) Appropriate conference or journal papers related to this research.Marine Corps Modeling & Simulation Office (MCMSO)HQMC Combat Development and Integration (CD&I)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The value of comparative radiographs in the diagnosis of extremity fractures in children by doctors in the emergency department

No abstract available

Prenatal development is linked to bronchial reactivity: epidemiological and animal model evidence

Chronic cardiorespiratory disease is associated with low birthweight suggesting the importance of the developmental environment. Prenatal factors affecting fetal growth are believed important, but the underlying mechanisms are unknown. The influence of developmental programming on bronchial hyperreactivity is investigated in an animal model and evidence for comparable associations is sought in humans. Pregnant Wistar rats were fed either control or protein-restricted diets throughout pregnancy. Bronchoconstrictor responses were recorded from offspring bronchial segments. Morphometric analysis of paraffin-embedded lung sections was conducted. In a human mother-child cohort ultrasound measurements of fetal growth were related to bronchial hyperreactivity, measured at age six years using methacholine. Protein-restricted rats' offspring demonstrated greater bronchoconstriction than controls. Airway structure was not altered. Children with lesser abdominal circumference growth during 11-19 weeks' gestation had greater bronchial hyperreactivity than those with more rapid abdominal growth. Imbalanced maternal nutrition during pregnancy results in offspring bronchial hyperreactivity. Prenatal environmental influences might play a comparable role in humans

Integration of submersible transect data and high-resolution multibeam sonar imagery for a habitat-based groundfish assessment of Heceta Bank, Oregon

In the face of dramatic declines in groundfish populations and a lack of sufficient stock assessment information, a need has arisen for new methods of assessing groundfish populations. We describe the integration of seafloor transect data gathered by a manned submersible with high-resolution sonar imagery to produce a habitat-based stock assessment system for groundfish. The data sets used in this study were collected from Heceta Bank, Oregon, and were derived from 42 submersible dives (1988–90) and a multibeam sonar survey (1998). The submersible habitat survey investigated seafloor topography and groundfish abundance along 30-minute transects over six predetermined stations and found a statistical relationship between habitat variability and groundfish distribution and abundance. These transects were analyzed in a geographic information system (GIS) by using dynamic segmentation to display changes in habitat along the transects. We used the submersible data to extrapolate fish abundance within uniform habitat patches over broad areas of the bank by means of a habitat classification based on the sonar imagery. After applying a navigation correction to the submersible-based habitat segments, a good correlation with major boundaries on the backscatter and topographic boundaries on the imagery were apparent. Extrapolation of the extent of uniform habitats was made in the vicinity of the dive stations and a preliminary stock assessment of several species of demersal fish was calculated. Such a habitat-based approach will allow researchers to characterize marine communities over large areas of the seafloor