Predicting Outcomes in Investment Treaty Arbitration

Crafting appropriate dispute settlement processes is challenging for any conflict-management system, particularly for politically sensitive international economic law disputes. As the United States negotiates investment treaties with Asian and European countries, the terms of dispute settlement have become contentious. There is a vigorous debate about whether investment treaty arbitration (ITA) is an appropriate dispute settlement mechanism. While some sing the praises of ITA, others offer a spirited critique. Some critics claim that ITA is biased against states, while others suggest ITA is predictable but unfair due to factors like arbitrator identity or venue. Using data from 159 final cases derived from 272 publicly available ITA awards, this Article examines outcomes of ITA cases to explore those concerns. Key descriptive findings demonstrate that states reliably won a greater proportion of cases than investors; and for the subset of cases investors won, the mean award was US$45.6 million with mean investor success rate of 35%. State success rates were roughly similar to respondent-favorable or state-favorable results in whistleblowing, qui tam, and medical-malpractice litigation in U.S. courts. The Article then explores whether ITA outcomes varied depending upon investor identity, state identity, the presence of repeat-player counsel, arbitrator-related, or venue variables. Models using case-based variables always predicted outcomes whereas arbitrator-venue models did not. The results provide initial evidence that the most critical variables for predicting outcomes involved some form of investor identity and the experience of parties’ lawyers. For investor identity, the most robust predictor was whether investors were human beings, with cases brought by people exhibiting greater success than corporations; and when at least one named investor or corporate parent was ranked in the Financial Times 500, investors sometimes secured more favorable outcomes. Following Marc Galanter’s scholarship demonstrating that repeat-player lawyers are critical to litigation outcomes, attorney experience also affected ITA outcomes. Investors with experienced counsel were more likely to obtain a damage award against a state, whereas states retaining experienced counsel were only reliably associated with decreased levels of relative investor success. Although there was variation in outcomes, ultimately, the data did not support a conclusion that ITA was completely unpredictable; rather, the results called into question some critiques of ITA and did not prove that ITA is a wholly unacceptable form of dispute settlement. Instead, the results suggest the vital debate about ITA’s future would be well served by focusing on evidence-based insights and reliance on data rather than nonreplicable intuition

Foreign Direct Investment, Investment Treaty Arbitration, and the Rule of Law

In the last decade, there has been a surge in the number of multi-lateral and bilateral investment treaties governments have signed; meanwhile there have been dramatic increases in the amount of foreign direct investment (FDI); and, more recently, the number of claims brought under investment treaties has spiked. This Article examines the relationship amongst these factors and is the first to review the emerging empirical economic literature investigating whether investment treaties achieve their goal of promoting FDI. The Article then specifically evaluates the impact that the procedural right to arbitrate investment claims plays in the process of promoting FDI and facilitating investment decisions. It considers this issue directly by evaluating models with non-traditional treaty dispute resolution mechanisms and considering the impact on FDI levels. The article then looks at the indirect role that investment treaty arbitration can play in facilitating investment and promoting the rule of law. The Article concludes that investment treaty arbitration\u27s precise impact on FDI is unclear; nevertheless, as it has important implications for investment and the rule of law, it is a factor worthy of ongoing consideration

Reforming World Bank Dispute Resolution: ICSID in Context

During a tumultuous moment in history with shifts in power and politics, international dispute settlement stands at a crossroads. In theory, international dispute settlement should not institutionalize abuses of power, rely upon a monolithic one-size-fits-all model, or be a waste of resources, which will inevitably generate stakeholder dissatisfaction. Rather, dispute resolution should reflect both a commitment to the rule of law and equal treatment that sustains nuanced, fair, and just procedures most likely to provide results of substantive quality. Against this backdrop and with the major reforms concluded in July 2022, this article explores the reality of dispute resolution at the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (“ICSID”) using an evidence-based, historical lens. Rather than distort ICSID’s past to offer cognitive ease, this article uses primary sources to understand dispute resolution at the World Bank and the broader implications for international dispute settlement and alternative dispute resolution. Using an evidence-based, historical lens to promote an accurate understanding of procedural and substantive distinctions, international investment law and international dispute resolution can facilitate accurate, useful, and responsive reform, rather than letting myopia, manipulation, and mismanaged expectations control the future of international dispute settlement

The Liability of International Arbitrators: A Comparative Analysis and Proposal for Qualified Immunity

With the advent of the global economy and the increasing number of international commercial transactions, arbitration has become an important dispute resolution option. Arbitration is traditionally extolled because it helps to resolve commercial disputes economically, confidentially, and finally within a neutral forum.\u27 Additionally, unlike national court judgments, arbitration provides an internationally recognized method for enforcing awards.\u27 As a result of these benefits, arbitration is now the preferred dispute resolution mechanism for international commercial disagreements. Unfortunately, because of perceived misconduct by arbitrators and the risk of party manipulation, the arbitration process has come under increasing attack through civil actions against arbitrators

An Empirical Analysis of Investment Treaty Awards

I. INTRODUCTION Earlier speakers offered insights about investment law and its implications for the future of domestic administrative law and international law. To bring us full circle, I will discuss where we are today so that we can consider where we want development law to be tomorrow. In pursuit of that goal, I offer empirical data related to investment treaty arbitration. My goal today is to focus on three claims about investment treaty arbitration and consider the data\u27s potential implications

Challenges Facing Investment Disputes: Reconsidering Dispute Resolution in International Investment Agreements

International investment and international investment agreements have experienced a particular level of growth in the past few decades. With that growth and the granting of affirmative dispute resolution rights to foreign investors, international investment conflict has become increasingly highlighted; and one particular methodology - namely investment treaty arbitration - has become particularly visible. Reliance on this single option for resolving conflict has a unique set of systemic implications. This chapter therefore takes a more systemic look at investment treaty conflict and, in an effort to provide an appropriate historical and doctrinal framework, approaches to dispute resolution broadly. It asks for a reconsideration of Appropriate Dispute Resolution (ADR) methods for resolving investment treaty conflict and highlights the costs and benefits of particularized dispute resolution methods, including preventative, negotiated, facilitated, fact-finding, advisory and imposed ADR mechanisms. The chapter ultimately argues that, while arbitration has utility, the challenge for the future will be to move beyond investment treaty arbitration to a more holistic approach to conflict management that considers other opportunities, particularly the collaborative design of sustainable dispute resolution systems.https://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/facsch_bk_contributions/1232/thumbnail.jp

The Nature and Enforcement of Investor Rights under Investment Treaties: Do Investment Treaties Have a Bright Future

The number of investment treaties has surged in the past decade. Even now, the United States and Canada are actively engaged in programs designed to facilitate the completion of multilateral treaties such as the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) and Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs). These investment treaties act like economic bills of rights, which grant foreign investors substantive protections and procedural rights to facilitate investment. Sovereigns, meanwhile, may benefit from these treaties by obtaining increased foreign direct investment, which may promote the development of their country\u27s infrastructure 6 and offer citizens basic services including access to clean water, electricity and roads

Borrowing Help - Using Conflicts of Law to Aid Clients and Lawyers

A colleague from another law firm calls you on the phone. He has a client with a clear-cut personal injury case, but, as a result of his failure to mark the critical date down in his calendar, the statute of limitations has expired. It is a lawyer\u27s worst nightmare. What can be done to salvage the case and still provide an opportunity to help the injured client? Rex Travis, an attorney in Oklahoma City, OK, received a phone call somewhat like this, hypothetically. Rex had an ace up his sleeve. He knew something that might remedy the damage and provide an opportunity to escape from the Oklahoma statute of limitations, gain the benefit of a longer Nebraska statute of limitations, but still permit litigation back home in Oklahoma. How might such a miracle be accomplished

Reforming World Bank Dispute Resolution: ICSID in Context

During a tumultuous moment in history with shifts in power and politics, international dispute settlement stands at a crossroads. In theory, international dispute settlement should not institutionalize abuses of power, rely upon a monolithic one-size-fits-all model, or be a waste of resources, which will inevitably generate stakeholder dissatisfaction. Rather, dispute resolution should reflect both a commitment to the rule of law and equal treatment that sustains nuanced, fair, and just procedures most likely to provide results of substantive quality. Against this backdrop and with the major reforms concluded in July 2022, this article explores the reality of dispute resolution at the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (“ICSID”) using an evidence-based, historical lens. Rather than distort ICSID’s past to offer cognitive ease, this article uses primary sources to understand dispute resolution at the World Bank and the broader implications for international dispute settlement and alternative dispute resolution. Using an evidence-based, historical lens to promote an accurate understanding of procedural and substantive distinctions, international investment law and international dispute resolution can facilitate accurate, useful, and responsive reform, rather than letting myopia, manipulation, and mismanaged expectations control the future of international dispute settlement

A Survival Guide for Small Businesses: Avoiding the Pitfalls in International Dispute Resolution

In the past decade, the number of small, entrepreneurial businesses participating in the global economy has tripled. With this increase comes a rise in the number of cross-border commercial disputes. The unwary small business, not familiar with international transactions, may commit errors that adversely affect their ability to do and stay in business. This article focuses on analyzing which methods small businesses should use in constructing their dispute resolution provisions and how to avoid errors in drafting and negotiation