Triggered Earthquakes and the 1811–1812 New Madrid, Central United States, Earthquake Sequence

The 1811–1812 New Madrid, central United States, earthquake sequence included at least three events with magnitudes estimated at well above M 7.0. I discuss evidence that the sequence also produced at least three substantial triggered events well outside the New Madrid Seismic Zone, most likely in the vicinity of Cincinnati, Ohio. The largest of these events is estimated to have a magnitude in the low to mid M 5 range. Events of this size are large enough to cause damage, especially in regions with low levels of preparedness. Remotely triggered earthquakes have been observed in tectonically active regions in recent years, but not previously in stable continental regions. The results of this study suggest, however, that potentially damaging triggered earthquakes may be common following large mainshocks in stable continental regions. Thus, in areas of low seismic activity such as central/eastern North America, the hazard associated with localized source zones might be more far reaching than previously recognized. The results also provide additional evidence that intraplate crust is critically stressed, such that small stress changes are especially effective at triggering earthquakes

Keeping the History in Historical Seismology: The 1872 Owens Valley, California Earthquake

The importance of historical earthquakes is being increasingly recognized. Careful investigations of key pre‐instrumental earthquakes can provide critical information and insights for not only seismic hazard assessment but also for earthquake science. In recent years, with the explosive growth in computational sophistication in Earth sciences, researchers have developed increasingly sophisticated methods to analyze macroseismic data quantitatively. These methodological developments can be extremely useful to exploit fully the temporally and spatially rich information source that seismic intensities often represent. For example, the exhaustive and painstaking investigations done by Ambraseys and his colleagues of early Himalayan earthquakes provides information that can be used to map out site response in the Ganges basin. In any investigation of macroseismic data, however, one must stay mindful that intensity values are not data but rather interpretations. The results of any subsequent analysis, regardless of the degree of sophistication of the methodology, will be only as reliable as the interpretations of available accounts—and only as complete as the research done to ferret out, and in many cases translate, these accounts. When intensities are assigned without an appreciation of historical setting and context, seemingly careful subsequent analysis can yield grossly inaccurate results. As a case study, I report here on the results of a recent investigation of the 1872 Owen's Valley, California earthquake. Careful consideration of macroseismic observations reveals that this event was probably larger than the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906, and possibly the largest historical earthquake in California. The results suggest that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San Andreas fault events of comparable magnitude

Analysis of broadband records from the 28 June 1992 Big Bear earthquake: Evidence of a multiple-event source

The 28 June 1992 Big Bear earthquake occurred at 15:05:21 GMT and is considered to be an aftershock of the earlier M_w = 7.3 Landers earthquake. From overall aftershock locations and long-period focal studies, rupture is generally assumed to have propagated northeast. No surface rupture was found, however, and the mainshock locations determined from both strong motion and TERRAscope data are mutually consistent and do not lie on the assumed fault plane. Further, directivity analysis of records from the TERRAscope array suggests significant short- and long-period energy propagating northwest along the presumed antithetic fault plane. This observation is supported by significant early aftershocks distributed along both the presumed rupture plane and the antithetic plane to the northwest. An empirical Green's function (eGf) approach using both the M_w = 5.2, 28 June 1992 14:43 GMT foreshock and the M_w = 5.0 17 August 1992 aftershock produces consistent results and suggests that the Big Bear event comprised at least two substantial subevents. From the eGf results, we infer that the second and possibly a third subevent occurred on the presumed (northeast striking) mainshock rupture surface, but that significant moment release occurred on the antithetic northwest striking surface. We present results from line-source fault modeling of broadband displacement recordings of the Big Bear mainshock, which indicate that a two-fault event is necessary to produce the observed waveforms. The limitations imposed by the mainshock location and directivity analysis require that the initial rupture be towards the northwest, striking 320°. This was followed approximately 4 sec later by bilateral rupture along a northeast-southwest fault that strikes 50° east of north

Quantifying the Media Bias in Intensity Surveys: Lessons from the 2001 Bhuj, India, Earthquake

Many seismologists have looked at the 26 January 2001 Bhuj earthquake as a key modern calibration event that could be used to improve estimates of magnitudes of large historic mainshocks in stable continental regions. Since no instrumental data are available for important historic events such as the 1819 Allah Bund, India, and the 1811–1812 New Madrid, central U.S. mainshocks, calibration hinges on comparisons of the macroseismic effects of these earthquakes with those of comparable modern earthquakes for which a reliable, instrumentally determined moment magnitude is available. However, although such a comparison is conceptually straightforward, in practice it is complicated by potentially significant inconsistencies in methods used to quantify macroseismic effects in different regions and/ or times. For the Bhuj earthquake, extensive intensity data sets have been compiled and published from both media accounts and detailed direct surveys. Comparing the two provides a quantification of the previously suspected media bias, whereby earthquake effects can be exaggerated in media accounts. This bias is a strong function of intensity level, with substantial bias at the highest shaking levels and significantly less bias at low intensities. Because only sparse documentary data are in general available for older historic earthquakes, the results of this study suggest that their inferred intensity distributions might be similarly biased. We further use the survey- based intensity values to develop a new relationship between intensities and ground motions

Magnitude Estimates of Two Large Aftershocks of the 16 December 1811 New Madrid Earthquake

The three principal New Madrid mainshocks of 1811-1812 were followed by extensive aftershock sequences that included numerous felt events. Although no instrumental data are available for either the mainshocks or the aftershocks, available historical accounts do provide information that can be used to estimate magnitudes and locations for the large events. In this article we investigate two of the largest aftershocks: one near dawn following the first mainshock on 16 December 1811, and one near midday on 17 December 1811. We reinterpret original felt reports to obtain a set of 48 and 20 modified Mercalli intensity values of the two aftershocks, respectively. For the dawn aftershock, we infer a M_W of approximately 7.0 based on a comparison of its intensities with those of the smallest New Madrid mainshock. Based on a detailed account that appears to describe near-field ground motions, we further propose a new fault rupture scenario for the dawn aftershock. We suggest that the aftershock had a thrust mechanism and occurred on a southeastern limb of the Reelfoot fault. For the 17 December 1811 aftershock, we infer a M_W of approximately 6.1 ± 0.2. This value is determined using the method of Bakun et al. (2002), which is based on a new calibration of intensity versus distance for earthquakes in central and eastern North America. The location of this event is not well constrained, but the available accounts suggest an epicenter beyond the southern end of the New Madrid Seismic Zone

Source properties of earthquakes near the Salton Sea triggered by the 16 October 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

We analyze the source properties of a sequence of triggered earthquakes that occurred near the Salton Sea in southern California in the immediate aftermath of the M 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake of 16 October 1999. The sequence produced a number of early events that were not initially located by the regional network, including two moderate earthquakes: the first within 30 sec of the P-wave arrival and a second approximately 10 minutes after the mainshock. We use available amplitude and waveform data from these events to estimate magnitudes to be approximately 4.7 and 4.4, respectively, and to obtain crude estimates of their locations. The sequence of small events following the initial M 4.7 earthquake is clustered and suggestive of a local aftershock sequence. Using both broadband TriNet data and analog data from the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN), we also investigate the spectral characteristics of the M 4.4 event and other triggered earthquakes using empirical Green's function (EGF) analysis. We find that the source spectra of the events are consistent with expectations for tectonic (brittle shear failure) earthquakes, and infer stress drop values of 0.1 to 6 MPa for six M 2.1 to M 4.4 events. The estimated stress drop values are within the range observed for tectonic earthquakes elsewhere. They are relatively low compared to typically observed stress drop values, which is consistent with expectations for faulting in an extensional, high heat flow regime. The results therefore suggest that, at least in this case, triggered earthquakes are associated with a brittle shear failure mechanism. This further suggests that triggered earthquakes may tend to occur in geothermal–volcanic regions because shear failure occurs at, and can be triggered by, relatively low stresses in extensional regimes

Reply to “Comment on ‘Revisiting the 1872 Owens Valley, California, Earthquake’ by Susan E. Hough and Kate Hutton” by William H. Bakun

Bakun (2009) argues that the conclusions of Hough and Hutton (2008) are wrong because the study failed to take into account the Sierra Nevada attenuation model of Bakun (2006). In particular, Bakun (2009) argues that propagation effects can explain the relatively high intensities generated by the 1872 Owens Valley earthquake. Using an intensity attenuation model that attempts to account for attenuation through the Sierra Nevada, Bakun (2006) infers the magnitude estimate (M_w 7.4–7.5) that is currently accepted by National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC)

Revisiting the 23 February 1892 Laguna Salada Earthquake

According to some compilations, the Laguna Salada, Baja California, earthquake of 23 February 1892 ranks among the largest earthquakes in California and Baja California in historic times. Although surface rupture was not documented at the time of the earthquake, recent geologic investigations have identified and mapped a rupture on the Laguna Salada fault that can be associated with high probability with the 1892 event (Mueller and Rockwell, 1995). The only intensity-based magnitude estimate for the earthquake, M 7.8, was made by Strand (1980) based on an interpretation of macroseismic effects and a comparison of isoseismal areas with those from instrumentally recorded earthquakes. In this study we reinterpret original accounts of the Laguna Salada earthquake. We assign modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) values in keeping with current practice, focusing on objective descriptions of damage rather than subjective human response and not assigning MMI values to effects that are now known to be poor indicators of shaking level, such as liquefaction and rockfalls. The reinterpreted isoseismal contours and the estimated magnitude are both significantly smaller than those obtained earlier. Using the method of Bakun and Wentworth (1997) we obtain a magnitude estimate of M 7.2 and an optimal epicenter less than 15 km from the center of the mapped Laguna Salada rupture. The isoseismal contours are elongated toward the northwest, which is qualitatively consistent with a directivity effect, assuming that the fault ruptured from southeast to northwest. We suggest that the elongation may also thus reflect wave propagation effects, with more efficient propagation of crustal surface (Lg) waves in the direction of the overall regional tectonic fabric

A model for the shape of the Fourier amplitude spectrum of acceleration at high frequencies

At high frequencies f the spectrum of S-wave accelerations is characterized by a trend of exponential decay, e^(−πkf). In our study, the spectral decay parameter k shows little variation at a single station for multiple earthquakes at the same distances, but it increases gradually as the epicentral distance increases. For multiple recordings of the San Fernando earthquake, k increases slowly with distance, and k is systematically smaller for sites on rock than for sites on alluvium. Under the assumption that the Fourier spectrum of acceleration at the source is constant above the corner frequency (an ω^(−2) source model), the exponential decay is consistent with an attenuation model in which Q increases rapidly with depth in the shallow crustal layers

Short-Term and Long-Term Effects of Vocal Distortion on Song Maintenance in Zebra Finches

Adult zebra finch song is irreversibly altered when birds are deprived of correct feedback by deafening or denervation of the syrinx. To clarify the role of feedback in song maintenance, we developed a reversible technique to distort vocal output without damaging the auditory or vocal systems. We implanted flexible beads adjacent to the syrinx to alter its biomechanics. Immediate song aberrations included low volume, frequency shifts, missing harmonics, and production of click-like syllables. After a few weeks, seven of nine birds stopped producing some syllables. In six of these birds, the gaps left by the silenced syllables gradually shortened, and the lost syllables did not return when beads were removed 16 weeks after treatment began. The nondeleted syllables of all birds regained their preimplant morphology, insofar as could be detected, within 9 d after bead removal. In four other birds, we removed the beads as soon as syllables were deleted, when the silent intervals were still full length. In these birds, all deleted syllables returned within 1 week. Our results indicate that both silenced syllables and syllable morphology can recover as long as the song’s temporal structure is maintained, but once altered, changes in the song sequence can be permanent. A hierarchical organization of the song production system has recently been described (Margoliash, 1997). Reversible disruption of song production by our method appears to permanently alter the higher levels of the system that encode song sequence, but not the lower levels that encode individual syllable structure