12 research outputs found
Risk scorecard to minimize impact of COVID-19 when reopening.
BACKGROUND: We present a novel approach for exiting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdowns using a 'risk scorecard' to prioritize activities to resume whilst allowing safe reopening. METHODS: We modelled cases generated in the community/week, incorporating parameters for social distancing, contact tracing and imported cases. We set thresholds for cases and analysed the effect of varying parameters. An online tool to facilitate country-specific use including the modification of parameters (https://sshsphdemos.shinyapps.io/covid_riskbudget/) enables visualization of effects of parameter changes and trade-offs. Local outbreak investigation data from Singapore illustrate this. RESULTS: Setting a threshold of 0.9 mean number of secondary cases arising from a case to keep R 1. CONCLUSIONS: Countries can utilize a 'risk scorecard' to balance relaxations for travel and domestic activity depending on factors that reduce disease impact, including hospital/ICU capacity, contact tracing, quarantine and vaccination. The tool enabled visualization of the combinations of imported cases and activity levels on the case numbers and the trade-offs required. For vaccination, a reduction factor should be applied both for likelihood of an infected case being present and a close contact getting infected
Modelling lockdown and exit strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore.
BACKGROUND: With at least 94 countries undergoing or exiting lockdowns for contact suppression to control the COVID-19 outbreak, sustainable and public health-driven exit strategies are required. Here we explore the impact of lockdown and exit strategies in Singapore for immediate planning. METHODS: We use an agent-based model to examine the impacts of epidemic control over 480 days. A limited control baseline of case isolation and household member quarantining is used. We measure the impact of lockdown duration and start date on final infection attack sizes. We then apply a 3-month gradual exit strategy, immediately re-opening schools and easing workplace distancing measures, and compare this to long-term social distancing measures. FINDINGS: At baseline, we estimated 815 400 total infections (21.6% of the population). Early lockdown at 5 weeks with no exit strategy averted 18 500 (2.27% of baseline averted), 21 300 (2.61%) and 22 400 (2.75%) infections for 6, 8 and 9-week lockdown durations. Using the exit strategy averted a corresponding 114 700, 121 700 and 126 000 total cases, representing 12.07-13.06% of the total epidemic size under baseline. This diminishes to 9 900-11 300 for a late 8-week start time. Long-term social distancing at 6 and 8-week durations are viable but less effective. INTERPRETATION: Gradual release exit strategies are critical to maintain epidemic suppression under a new normal. We present final infection attack sizes assuming the ongoing importation of cases, which require preparation for a potential second epidemic wave due to ongoing epidemics elsewhere. FUNDING: Singapore Ministry of Health, Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre
A Systematic Review of COVID-19 Epidemiology Based on Current Evidence.
10.3390/jcm9040967J Clin Med94967-96
Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study
10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30162-6LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES206678-68
Testing strategies to contain COVID-19 in migrant worker dormitories
10.1016/j.jmh.2022.100079JOURNAL OF MIGRATION AND HEALTH
Determining quarantine length and testing frequency for international border opening during the COVID-19 pandemic
10.1093/jtm/taab088JOURNAL OF TRAVEL MEDICINE28
Modelling lockdown and exit strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore
10.1016/j.lanwpc.2020.100004The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific1100004-10000
Simple "Rule-of-6" Predicts Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
10.1093/cid/ciaa938CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES72101861-186
Effectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore Implications for Other National Containment Efforts
10.1097/EDE.0000000000001257EPIDEMIOLOGY32179-8